NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	87		Excitement	5.4 [758]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +29.4%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	4.4 [671]		LVP	Mike Dunleavy (CHI): -12.8%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.00	0.01	-0.05	23	48%	0.09	2	-0.03	8	100%	0.05
Tony Snell	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	0.05	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.01	11	68%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.01	0.03	9	61%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Nazr Mohammed	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	12	42%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.11	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.12	-0.04	-0.04	9	35%	0.00	4	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Dunleavy	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.01	6	41%	-0.05	3	-0.08	5	100%	0.03

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.24	0.07	0.02	19	81%	0.34	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.03
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.11	0.07	-0.00	16	63%	0.18	1	-0.00	3	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.09	0.04	10	55%	0.09	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	0.00	0.00	4	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ognjen Kuzmic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
MarShon Brooks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	-0.00	-0.03	4	40%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	0.02	10	55%	0.04	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	10	30%	-0.03	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	3.6	31.2	18.7	33.2	3.4	37.7	151.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +61.6%

CHI -14.3%

CHI -10.2%

GSW +14.1%

CHI -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	GSW	NBA	CHI	GSW	NBA
this game	17.1	14.8	15.1	96.7	112.1	105.2
season	16.3	14.2		101.1	105.9
opponent	15.3	15.3		102.0	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.8	18.9	17.9	15.6	17.1
GSW	14.9	13.2	12.1	19.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Nazr Mohammed	13	13	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.01	-2	-13	11	16.2	17.2	-0.98	13.7	14.9	-1.26
Kirk Hinrich	44	49	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.14	2	-17	19	16.2	17.9	-1.78	15.8	13.5	2.31
Tony Snell	33	33	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.14	-11	-4	-7	16.5	17.4	-0.82	16.2	13.9	2.31
Mike Dunleavy	69	68	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.19	-6	-9	3	17.7	15.1	2.51	13.6	18.3	-4.73
D.J. Augustin	46	43	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	0.06	-17	2	-19	17.9	16.2	1.78	13.8	15.6	-1.86
Jimmy Butler	87	89	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.07	-13	-2	-11	17.0	20.3	-3.38	14.9	8.5	6.41
Taj Gibson	86	87	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.07	-13	-2	-11	16.8	23.2	-6.47	14.9	11.2	3.68
Joakim Noah	72	73	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.03	-15	0	-15	17.4	15.8	1.54	14.9	14.2	0.68

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	77	75	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.04	18	-3	21	14.6	15.4	-0.78	17.3	16.1	1.20
Harrison Barnes	54	55	0.47	0.03	0.43	-0.12	20	-5	25	14.6	15.0	-0.39	17.1	17.0	0.16
Stephen Curry	80	80	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	3	9	15.0	13.4	1.60	17.3	15.5	1.76
Klay Thompson	73	74	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.06	10	5	5	15.3	12.6	2.76	17.0	17.4	-0.45
Jordan Crawford	39	40	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.13	13	2	11	14.1	15.3	-1.21	16.6	17.4	-0.75
Draymond Green	53	51	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.09	4	11	-7	14.8	14.7	0.19	17.7	16.2	1.52
Jermaine O'Neal	49	47	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.44	-9	24	-33	15.6	13.8	1.78	17.1	17.1	-0.01
Ognjen Kuzmic	2	2	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.02	3	12	-9	4.0	15.0	-11.01	19.5	17.0	2.49
Marreese Speights	25	24	0.03	0.47	-0.43	-0.08	4	11	-7	14.4	14.9	-0.56	15.7	17.6	-1.91
Kent Bazemore	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	5.5	15.0	-9.48	9.0	17.2	-8.16
MarShon Brooks	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	10.0	14.8	-4.82	9.0	17.2	-8.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.72,0.69,0.81,0.82,0.81,0.78,0.82,0.76,0.72,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHH 70, CHI 83	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.38,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.28,0.24,0.23,0.19,0.28,0.39,0.42,0.41,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.93,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.2%
TOR 95, DET 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.39,0.4,0.37,0.32,0.29,0.24,0.27,0.25,0.23,0.28,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.51,0.61,0.61,0.71,0.72,0.72,0.73,0.83,0.85,0.74,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.92,0.96,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.93,0.97,0.99,1	94.1%
SEA 82, UTA 86	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.27,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.25,0.21,0.17,0.22,0.27,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.49,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.7,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.68,0.86,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,1	93.8%