NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	116		Excitement	6.5 [517]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +21.2%
Los Angeles Clippers	112		Comeback	1.1 [656]		LVP	Darren Collison (LAC): -9.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.21	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21	0.03	0.16	-0.02	20	65%	0.36	7	-0.15	8	75%	0.02
Ray Allen	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.2	0.08	0.11	-0.00	8	71%	0.24	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0.13	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.12	0.01	0.01	9	78%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	5	75%	0.07	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.00
Dwyane Wade	0.06	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.05	0.01	0.00	8	70%	0.10	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Bosh	0.04	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	15	47%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Greg Oden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Toney Douglas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	5	27%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	7	71%	0.06	4	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Los Angeles Clippers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeAndre Jordan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.01	8	76%	0.15	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.02
Sasha Vujacic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,-0.04,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.04	0.06	21	62%	0.10	5	-0.11	8	100%	0.03
Willie Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	1	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Blake Griffin	0,0,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,0,0.06,0.06,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	34	51%	0.05	4	-0.09	17	59%	-0.06
Jared Dudley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	25%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Matt Barnes	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.03	-0.04	0.01	11	46%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Darren Collison	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	6	31%	-0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.6	2.0	41.3	18.6	32.7	2.0	47.3	168.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +87.4%

LAC -7.3%

LAC -42.1%

MIA +11.9%

MIA +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	LAC	NBA	MIA	LAC	NBA
this game	16.1	13.1	15.1	118.4	113.1	105.2
season	15.6	14.3		109.7	111.0
opponent	15.4	15.8		104.3	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	15.1	16.7	16.4	16.1
LAC	12.8	12.0	14.7	13.1	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	51	53	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.13	23	-19	42	15.6	16.7	-1.16	14.8	11.2	3.66
Chris Bosh	68	69	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.23	9	-5	14	15.3	18.0	-2.63	13.9	11.3	2.60
LeBron James	82	83	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	1	2	16.3	15.3	0.99	13.1	13.2	-0.09
Dwyane Wade	75	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	-2	8	15.4	18.6	-3.22	13.7	11.4	2.24
Chris Andersen	54	54	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.41	-5	9	-14	16.4	15.8	0.59	13.1	13.2	-0.08
Shane Battier	57	57	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.17	2	2	0	17.1	14.9	2.17	12.4	14.0	-1.63
Ray Allen	54	56	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.38	-6	10	-16	16.9	15.2	1.74	11.9	14.7	-2.76
Greg Oden	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	6	-8	13.9	16.5	-2.54	14.6	12.9	1.68
Norris Cole	36	36	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.19	-7	11	-18	17.8	15.2	2.67	10.7	14.5	-3.71
Toney Douglas	1	1	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.03	-3	7	-10	0.0	16.3	-16.31	4.0	13.2	-9.20

Los Angeles Clippers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Green	23	25	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.06	-1	-3	2	9.5	14.2	-4.68	17.3	15.7	1.58
Hedo Turkoglu	3	5	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	2	-8	17.0	13.0	4.01	17.8	16.1	1.75
Sasha Vujacic	4	3	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.15	-11	7	-18	9.0	13.3	-4.28	13.0	16.2	-3.24
Jared Dudley	37	36	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.16	-1	-3	2	10.6	14.6	-3.93	17.5	15.4	2.15
Matt Barnes	84	83	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.56	12	-16	28	13.2	12.4	0.84	16.1	16.3	-0.22
Blake Griffin	87	86	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.47	5	-9	14	13.5	10.4	3.07	15.9	18.2	-2.31
Jamal Crawford	97	95	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.51	5	-9	14	13.2	10.0	3.18	16.0	20.3	-4.32
Darren Collison	78	75	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-1	-2	13.8	10.5	3.34	16.0	16.7	-0.67
DeAndre Jordan	82	82	-0.66	0.16	-0.81	-0.07	-20	16	-36	14.0	8.8	5.25	15.8	17.7	-1.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.31,0.2,0.3,0.24,0.37,0.22,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.12,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.17,0.05,0.08,0.15,0.33,0.2,0.12,0.1,0.15,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 107, MIA 97	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.37,0.3,0.31,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.24,0.16,0.19,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.18,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.14,0.06,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.13,0.29,0.27,0.15,0.04,0.01,0,0	93.6%
DET 76, PHI 66	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.41,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.23,0.25,0.2,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.16,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.32,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.14,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.15,0.23,0.2,0.1,0.02,0,0	93.4%
CHI 107, CLE 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.42,0.48,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.31,0.34,0.35,0.27,0.27,0.23,0.27,0.3,0.27,0.26,0.16,0.2,0.15,0.1,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.23,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.1,0.14,0.1,0.12,0.17,0.2,0.22,0.25,0.11,0.11,0.05,0	93.4%