NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	100		Excitement	7.2 [376]		MVP	DeMarre Carroll (ATL): +32.4%
New Orleans Pelicans	105		Comeback	4.6 [342]		LVP	Jeff Teague (ATL): -23.8%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0.32	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.1,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.19	0.14	0.01	12	92%	0.35	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.06	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.08,0.03,0.1,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.00	20	59%	0.14	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.03
Mike Scott	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.01	0.01	12	62%	0.08	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Louis Williams	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	6	69%	0.13	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	6	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gustavo Ayon	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	5	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
Elton Brand	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	6	33%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.09	-0.11	0.04	14	37%	-0.14	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.00

New Orleans Pelicans
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Davis	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.19,0.14,0.07,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.16	0.07	0.04	14	71%	0.27	1	-0.07	10	90%	0.04
Anthony Morrow	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.13	0.13	0.05	0.08	-0.00	13	55%	0.15	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.09	0.01	14	59%	0.19	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
Eric Gordon	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.02	0.06	-0.02	17	49%	0.12	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Greg Stiemsma	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	100%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alexis Ajinca	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.01	3	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Withey	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Rivers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.06	0.01	11	37%	-0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.00
Al-Farouq Aminu	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.06	0.01	11	27%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	1.8	25.1	15.4	23.0	1.6	34.5	124.1
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -0.3%

NOP +23.5%

NOP +19.1%

NOP +6.8%

NOP +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	NOP	NBA	ATL	NOP	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	15.1	105.3	111.7	105.2
season	14.8	15.5		103.8	105.6
opponent	15.3	15.3		108.5	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	17.0	14.4	14.7	12.6	14.6
NOP	15.7	17.6	17.4	13.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gustavo Ayon	34	33	-0.06	-0.44	0.39	0.09	-5	0	-5	15.5	14.1	1.43	16.2	15.7	0.47
Louis Williams	39	39	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.03	-2	-3	1	14.6	14.6	0.02	17.6	14.7	2.97
Elton Brand	36	36	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.03	-4	-1	-3	15.5	14.0	1.44	17.3	15.0	2.27
Shelvin Mack	28	28	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	3	-11	14.5	14.6	-0.06	17.5	15.2	2.27
Jeff Teague	67	66	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.36	3	-8	11	14.6	14.5	0.06	15.2	17.5	-2.27
DeMarre Carroll	83	82	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.28	-2	-3	1	14.5	15.1	-0.58	15.8	16.6	-0.78
Paul Millsap	68	68	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-4	3	14.7	14.4	0.29	15.4	17.3	-1.99
Mike Scott	52	51	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.45	0	-5	5	13.2	16.2	-2.94	15.5	16.4	-0.99
Kyle Korver	68	67	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.40	-6	1	-7	14.7	14.4	0.29	15.0	18.1	-3.10

New Orleans Pelicans
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brian Roberts	71	73	0.92	-0.42	1.34	0.42	17	-12	29	15.6	16.7	-1.05	15.0	13.1	1.94
Anthony Morrow	55	55	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.36	12	-7	19	15.7	16.2	-0.47	13.7	15.7	-2.02
Greg Stiemsma	57	59	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.25	10	-5	15	17.2	13.9	3.36	15.4	13.2	2.23
Anthony Davis	70	71	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.37	3	2	1	15.2	18.0	-2.87	14.7	14.3	0.38
Eric Gordon	68	67	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.37	-2	7	-9	15.0	18.2	-3.11	14.7	14.3	0.37
Jeff Withey	16	17	0.06	0.44	-0.39	-0.00	2	3	-1	18.3	15.4	2.90	14.4	14.6	-0.28
Alexis Ajinca	29	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	-0.00	-2	7	-9	16.2	15.8	0.39	15.2	14.3	0.85
Al-Farouq Aminu	68	68	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.06	-9	14	-23	15.7	16.5	-0.82	14.5	14.8	-0.33
Austin Rivers	36	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.98	-0.06	-6	11	-17	16.8	15.3	1.46	13.0	15.5	-2.54

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.68,0.68,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.34,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.52,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.89,0.97,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 107, LAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.39,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.38,0.48,0.37,0.27,0.26,0.46,0.62,0.55,0.63,0.85,0.84,1	92.6%
DEN 82, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.37,0.34,0.25,0.27,0.36,0.29,0.38,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.48,0.33,0.47,0.41,0.6,0.61,0.62,0.79,0.94,0.92,1	92.3%
MIL 79, SAC 88	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.61,0.56,0.49,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.41,0.44,0.37,0.28,0.38,0.22,0.21,0.29,0.19,0.21,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.84,0.98,1,1	92.2%