NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	102		Excitement	2.4 [1268]		MVP	Arron Afflalo (ORL): +9.6%
Orlando Magic	113		Comeback	1.1 [1081]		LVP	Khris Middleton (MIL): -6.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	12	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Caron Butler	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.15	-0.00	0.15	12	77%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Brandon Knight	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Nate Wolters	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	0.00	-0.03	11	32%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.02
Gary Neal	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	54%	-0.00	3	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01
Larry Sanders	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	11	38%	-0.01	2	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Miroslav Raduljica	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Giannis Antetokounmpo	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.05	0.00	0.10	7	65%	-0.01	2	-0.04	9	56%	-0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.00	0.01	11	45%	-0.01	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.00	0.03	13	64%	0.10	0	0.00	7	86%	0.01
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.13	0.00	0.06	7	93%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nikola Vucevic	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.00	-0.03	9	60%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Harkless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.00	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	0.00
Doron Lamb	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.08	0.00	0.06	3	133%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Victor Oladipo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	10	60%	0.04	5	-0.02	5	80%	-0.00
Tobias Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	18	44%	0.01	1	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.01	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kyle O'Quinn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.02	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Glen Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.07	0.00	-0.04	6	33%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.5	1.8	27.6	15.8	22.2	3.8	28.2	127.9
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +25.6%

ORL +12.2%

MIL -2.2%

ORL +14.1%

ORL +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	13.5	14.6	15.1	100.0	109.7	105.2
season	15.7	15.3		101.4	100.4
opponent	15.0	15.1		105.9	109.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.2	15.2	15.1	11.6	13.5
ORL	13.9	14.2	13.7	16.6	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	41	41	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.02	-7	-4	-3	14.9	12.6	2.35	15.1	14.3	0.84
Miroslav Raduljica	24	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	-5	-1	12.7	13.7	-1.04	14.7	14.6	0.08
Khris Middleton	54	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.02	-7	-4	-3	14.1	12.8	1.26	14.8	14.3	0.49
Gary Neal	50	53	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.27	1	-12	13	13.2	13.7	-0.51	14.3	14.9	-0.52
Larry Sanders	72	71	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.17	-3	-8	5	13.9	12.4	1.51	14.3	15.2	-0.82
Brandon Knight	57	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	0	-11	13.8	13.1	0.74	14.6	14.6	-0.05
Giannis Antetokounmpo	64	64	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.18	-5	-6	1	12.7	14.8	-2.14	14.2	15.3	-1.11
Caron Butler	63	65	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.21	-4	-7	3	12.6	14.9	-2.35	14.4	15.0	-0.60
Nate Wolters	85	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.10	-13	2	-15	13.5	13.5	-0.04	15.0	12.3	2.75

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Arron Afflalo	63	63	0.41	0.10	0.31	-0.12	18	-7	25	14.6	14.5	0.07	13.7	13.2	0.48
Tobias Harris	65	63	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	8	-5	14.3	15.1	-0.81	13.6	13.4	0.15
Nikola Vucevic	55	57	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.14	5	6	-1	14.4	14.8	-0.41	13.8	13.2	0.58
Jameer Nelson	28	27	0.28	0.22	0.07	-0.16	15	-4	19	13.9	14.8	-0.91	12.2	14.0	-1.74
Victor Oladipo	69	71	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.22	2	9	-7	15.0	13.7	1.32	13.3	13.9	-0.53
E'Twaun Moore	53	51	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.34	-2	13	-15	15.2	14.0	1.23	12.5	14.5	-2.02
Glen Davis	47	49	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.07	10	1	9	15.2	14.1	1.10	13.7	13.3	0.45
Maurice Harkless	54	54	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.28	-3	14	-17	14.9	14.3	0.62	13.7	13.3	0.39
Kyle O'Quinn	39	35	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	7	-3	14.6	14.6	0.08	12.7	13.9	-1.28
Doron Lamb	25	25	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.05	3	8	-5	13.7	14.9	-1.20	15.1	13.0	2.15
Ronnie Price	17	15	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.02	0	11	-11	12.4	15.0	-2.68	15.9	13.1	2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.61,0.65,0.72,0.78,0.78,0.83,0.83,0.9,0.88,0.88,0.86,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.86,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 69, SAS 85	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.9,0.86,0.84,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.95,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
MIA 65, WAS 95	0.5,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.8,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.95,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%
CLE 91, ORL 120	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.95,0.94,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	97.7%