NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	85		Excitement	6.9 [441]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +31.1%
Toronto Raptors	93		Comeback	6.2 [282]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -23.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandan Wright	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	7	68%	0.18	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.03
DeJuan Blair	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.00	-0.00	5	80%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.03	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	3	87%	0.08	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ricky Ledo	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Wayne Ellington	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	2	0%	-0.01	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.05	-0.01	7	53%	0.01	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Shane Larkin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.09	0.01	11	54%	-0.02	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.04
Samuel Dalembert	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	-0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	11	27%	-0.03	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.15	-0.01	18	55%	0.13	8	-0.36	2	50%	-0.03

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.24,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31	0.31	0.18	0.13	-0.00	22	69%	0.43	4	-0.12	14	64%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.05	0.13	0.00	7	64%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.01	0.01	-0.03	13	53%	0.13	2	-0.07	6	67%	-0.01
Charles Hayes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	6	60%	0.05	4	-0.08	8	75%	0.01
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	0.02	4	37%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Ross	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	21%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	7	43%	-0.02	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.15	-0.06	-0.02	10	12%	-0.17	1	-0.03	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.8	28.3	15.8	25.0	1.8	39.2	137.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -15.3%

TOR +21.3%

TOR +5.3%

TOR +40.5%

DAL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	TOR	NBA	DAL	TOR	NBA
this game	16.4	15.0	15.1	93.4	100.0	105.2
season	15.3	15.9		109.0	107.2
opponent	15.1	15.0		104.2	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	15.9	15.7	19.0	15.1	16.4
TOR	14.1	14.3	15.3	16.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeJuan Blair	36	35	0.15	-0.65	0.80	0.12	1	-9	10	16.3	16.4	-0.14	14.6	15.2	-0.57
Samuel Dalembert	31	30	0.11	-0.61	0.71	-0.04	5	-13	18	18.8	15.1	3.76	15.5	14.7	0.80
Shane Larkin	22	23	0.09	-0.59	0.68	0.15	-2	-6	4	15.9	16.5	-0.66	14.2	15.2	-0.98
Jae Crowder	39	38	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-11	14	17.3	15.7	1.65	14.9	15.0	-0.15
Ricky Ledo	1	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.00	0	-8	8	6.0	16.5	-10.48	16.0	14.9	1.05
Devin Harris	28	28	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.08	-4	-4	0	17.1	16.0	1.02	14.3	15.2	-0.91
Wayne Ellington	15	14	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.03	-5	-3	-2	17.9	16.1	1.80	14.4	15.1	-0.62
Jose Calderon	64	66	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.34	-4	-4	0	16.2	16.9	-0.70	15.3	14.1	1.14
Brandan Wright	49	52	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.16	-12	4	-16	15.4	17.5	-2.11	14.9	15.0	-0.03
Monta Ellis	69	71	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.40	-4	-4	0	16.3	16.5	-0.12	15.6	13.0	2.56
Vince Carter	44	46	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.37	-8	0	-8	15.3	17.3	-2.02	14.2	15.7	-1.55
Shawn Marion	57	61	-0.65	0.15	-0.80	-0.36	-10	2	-12	16.0	17.0	-1.06	15.2	14.6	0.60

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Greivis Vasquez	66	64	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.21	21	-13	34	15.0	14.7	0.30	15.7	17.9	-2.17
Amir Johnson	62	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-2	12	15.1	14.7	0.32	15.9	17.3	-1.46
Jonas Valanciunas	52	49	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.35	2	6	-4	15.2	14.6	0.58	15.0	18.0	-3.04
DeMar DeRozan	75	72	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.52	-5	13	-18	14.9	15.4	-0.54	15.8	18.4	-2.60
Charles Hayes	30	31	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.21	18	-10	28	14.5	15.2	-0.67	18.8	15.1	3.71
Kyle Lowry	68	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.46	-5	13	-18	15.6	13.1	2.57	15.7	18.1	-2.37
Terrence Ross	37	35	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.13	2	6	-4	14.1	15.5	-1.41	18.0	15.4	2.61
John Salmons	40	42	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.16	3	5	-2	14.8	15.1	-0.28	17.6	15.3	2.24
Patrick Patterson	35	36	-0.24	0.74	-0.99	-0.07	-6	14	-20	14.6	15.2	-0.62	17.4	15.7	1.79

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.21,0.25,0.31,0.37,0.32,0.26,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.37,0.4,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.29,0.23,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.36,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.33,0.26,0.31,0.35,0.47,0.54,0.79,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 65, DET 69	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.29,0.27,0.26,0.28,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.3,0.25,0.29,0.36,0.43,0.44,0.33,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.28,0.25,0.31,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.38,0.37,0.31,0.46,0.46,0.55,0.84,0.66,0.96,1	92.1%
PHX 90, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.41,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.3,0.28,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.22,0.23,0.3,0.37,0.32,0.23,0.25,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.22,0.28,0.27,0.23,0.25,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.41,0.39,0.62,0.84,0.84,0.98,1	91.9%
MIL 85, ORL 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.29,0.34,0.29,0.27,0.3,0.23,0.25,0.18,0.23,0.36,0.49,0.42,0.43,0.36,0.3,0.24,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.44,0.42,0.3,0.21,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.47,0.53,0.78,0.85,0.99,1	91.9%