NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	86		Excitement	7.3 [366]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +16.4%
Miami Heat	93		Comeback	2.8 [625]		LVP	Rajon Rondo (BOS): -41.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kris Humphries	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.05	0.11	-0.00	10	70%	0.21	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Chris Johnson	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.09	0.01	0.02	7	73%	0.08	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.01	7	79%	0.14	2	-0.06	5	100%	0.04
Joel Anthony	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kelly Olynyk	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	0.00	0.01	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	9	42%	-0.00	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.03	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	0.01	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Jared Sullinger	-0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.08	0.02	-0.01	14	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Phil Pressey	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	3	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.26	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.26,-0.26	-0.08	-0.21	-0.03	15	40%	-0.09	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.42	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.27,-0.36,-0.42	-0.21	-0.23	-0.02	8	5%	-0.27	3	-0.15	4	25%	-0.09

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.16	0.16	0.08	0.09	0.00	19	59%	0.32	3	-0.15	11	82%	0.06
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.07	-0.00	10	80%	0.21	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.07	0.04	-0.00	6	75%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.01	5	93%	0.17	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.08	0.00	7	50%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	47%	-0.00	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.22,-0.22,-0.32,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.16	-0.19	-0.02	7	14%	-0.12	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.0	2.4	28.3	15.6	21.7	1.8	37.6	134.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +68.5%

MIA +7.0%

BOS -31.1%

MIA +3.7%

MIA +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	16.4	16.1	15.1	96.6	105.7	105.2
season	15.4	15.6		101.2	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.8	17.1	17.9	14.1	16.4
MIA	13.7	16.3	19.9	15.2	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Phil Pressey	37	38	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.01	0	-7	7	16.6	16.3	0.26	17.9	14.7	3.21
Joel Anthony	14	13	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-6	5	17.2	16.3	0.95	15.2	16.3	-1.05
Gerald Wallace	49	48	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.03	-3	-4	1	16.8	16.0	0.76	16.7	15.5	1.19
Avery Bradley	15	14	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	0.06	-7	0	-7	18.6	16.0	2.63	14.8	16.4	-1.59
Kelly Olynyk	25	24	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.05	-7	0	-7	16.8	16.2	0.59	14.6	16.7	-2.06
Jared Sullinger	51	51	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-12	17	17.1	15.5	1.64	17.3	14.5	2.78
Chris Johnson	47	48	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.43	7	-14	21	15.4	17.6	-2.19	15.4	17.0	-1.60
Brandon Bass	35	35	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.06	-10	3	-13	14.6	17.6	-3.04	15.9	16.3	-0.44
Kris Humphries	53	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.28	-1	-6	5	16.5	16.2	0.32	16.1	16.2	-0.12
Rajon Rondo	52	50	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.29	-7	0	-7	16.3	16.6	-0.26	14.7	17.9	-3.21
Jeff Green	67	66	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.19	-11	4	-15	16.4	16.5	-0.05	16.5	14.9	1.68

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ray Allen	58	59	0.62	-0.12	0.75	0.24	13	-6	19	16.3	15.7	0.64	17.1	15.0	2.09
LeBron James	70	71	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-4	15	16.3	15.4	0.86	16.6	15.6	1.01
Chris Andersen	48	47	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.30	3	4	-1	15.1	17.3	-2.20	15.6	17.3	-1.74
Chris Bosh	62	62	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	2	3	16.8	14.4	2.42	16.6	16.1	0.49
Norris Cole	55	55	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.33	0	7	-7	15.4	17.3	-1.93	15.9	17.2	-1.28
Shane Battier	37	39	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.10	9	-2	11	16.8	15.6	1.14	17.6	15.5	2.04
Michael Beasley	27	27	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	8	-9	14.2	17.0	-2.74	14.1	17.4	-3.31
Rashard Lewis	12	12	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.08	-2	9	-11	14.8	16.3	-1.50	17.9	16.2	1.73
Greg Oden	9	10	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.04	-1	8	-9	18.3	15.9	2.46	16.2	16.4	-0.24
Mario Chalmers	62	63	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.05	-2	9	-11	16.8	14.5	2.25	16.4	16.3	0.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 93, NOK 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.75,0.76,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.54,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.73,1	92.5%
SEA 74, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.84,1	92.2%
SAC 97, GSW 100	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.7,0.72,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.84,0.8,0.79,0.77,0.84,0.75,0.74,0.71,0.7,0.73,0.61,0.74,0.63,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.76,0.64,0.71,0.53,0.47,0.63,0.76,0.83,1	92.1%