NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	93		Excitement	8.0 [265]		MVP	Anthony Roberson (GSW): +13.6%
New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets	97		Comeback	2.4 [665]		LVP	Desmond Mason (NOK): -13.6%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Anthony Roberson	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14	0.06	0.09	0.01	10	71%	0.20	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Matt Barnes	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	60%	0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ike Diogu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Patrick O'Bryant	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,0,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.06	-0.00	5	83%	0.07	2	-0.09	2	100%	0.04
Jason Richardson	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	9	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Baron Davis	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.02,-0.11	0.06	-0.14	0.03	17	56%	-0.08	1	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.04	-0.09	-0.00	6	38%	-0.10	2	-0.03	1	0%	-0.03
Monta Ellis	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.13	-0.05	-0.12	-0.04	17	50%	0.08	4	-0.21	0	0%	0.00

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Paul	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.10	0.01	16	61%	0.22	4	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Tyson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.09	0.02	0.02	5	77%	0.08	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Linton Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	5	70%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	15	50%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	5	33%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Cedric Simmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	6	50%	0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.13,-0.09,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	0.03	16	49%	0.02	1	-0.10	5	100%	0.04
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.02	3	0%	-0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14	-0.14	-0.13	-0.02	-0.02	15	40%	-0.01	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.7	1.7	29.6	16.0	23.2	1.8	34.2	134.1
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NOK +12.3%

NOK +0.6%

NOK +36.2%

GSW -10.5%

NOK +11.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	NOK	NBA	GSW	NOK	NBA
this game	14.4	16.6	15.4	101.1	103.2	104.5
season	13.5	16.0		105.7	102.8
opponent	15.3	15.2		104.4	105.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	15.8	13.4	15.5	13.0	14.4
NOK	17.6	15.9	17.2	15.8	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Anthony Roberson	49	53	0.44	-0.94	1.37	-0.00	15	-19	34	13.5	15.4	-1.88	15.3	18.2	-2.96
Andris Biedrins	65	68	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.11	2	-6	8	14.6	13.8	0.79	17.1	15.2	1.91
Patrick O'Bryant	11	10	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.00	-2	-2	0	13.4	14.5	-1.14	17.6	16.5	1.15
Ike Diogu	21	20	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	0	-4	14.5	14.3	0.20	17.2	16.4	0.86
Mike Dunleavy	45	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	5	-14	13.7	15.0	-1.29	16.2	16.9	-0.68
Matt Barnes	52	53	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-8	12	13.5	15.5	-2.00	16.4	16.8	-0.32
Troy Murphy	38	37	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.12	-11	7	-18	15.9	13.3	2.64	17.6	15.9	1.68
Monta Ellis	75	76	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.56	1	-5	6	13.9	16.6	-2.72	16.7	15.8	0.92
Jason Richardson	46	47	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.24	-11	7	-18	15.7	13.1	2.61	16.7	16.4	0.30
Baron Davis	58	59	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.46	-5	1	-6	14.9	13.5	1.38	16.1	17.3	-1.18

New Orleans/Oklahoma City Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Desmond Mason	60	60	0.69	-0.19	0.87	0.25	15	-11	26	16.2	17.3	-1.08	15.1	13.0	2.10
Chris Paul	70	68	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.36	10	-6	16	16.1	17.8	-1.69	14.5	13.9	0.61
David West	70	68	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.35	6	-2	8	16.0	18.2	-2.14	15.0	12.5	2.53
Peja Stojakovic	68	66	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.36	5	-1	6	16.4	17.2	-0.80	15.0	12.8	2.12
Bobby Jackson	49	47	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.40	3	1	2	15.2	18.0	-2.78	12.8	16.0	-3.19
Tyson Chandler	61	61	0.45	0.05	0.41	0.07	13	-9	22	17.6	14.7	2.89	15.0	13.1	1.87
Linton Johnson	26	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.55	0.09	-4	8	-12	17.9	16.1	1.86	12.4	15.1	-2.65
Jannero Pargo	23	23	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.01	-5	9	-14	17.9	16.2	1.71	13.3	14.7	-1.36
Cedric Simmons	14	14	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.05	-7	11	-18	18.3	16.3	2.01	14.1	14.4	-0.35
Rasual Butler	29	28	-0.39	0.89	-1.28	0.08	-16	20	-36	17.3	16.2	1.06	13.4	14.8	-1.46

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.75,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.81,0.88,0.75,0.76,0.64,0.55,0.62,0.69,0.65,0.63,0.75,0.87,0.78,0.82,0.67,0.54,0.64,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.36,0.45,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 86, MIA 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.5,0.57,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.74,0.75,0.77,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.79,0.71,0.69,0.7,0.75,0.8,0.74,0.8,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.71,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.54,0.55,0.37,0.57,0.84,1	92.5%
SEA 74, MIA 82	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.73,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.81,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.8,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.81,0.71,0.71,0.71,0.79,0.73,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.65,0.64,0.59,0.78,0.69,0.45,0.33,0.84,1	91.5%
WAS 85, MIL 91	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.67,0.69,0.7,0.72,0.7,0.73,0.75,0.71,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.79,0.82,0.86,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.58,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.71,0.73,0.63,0.59,0.46,0.54,0.45,0.54,0.55,0.58,1	91.3%