NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	8.0 [254]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +26.2%
Atlanta Hawks	121		Comeback	2.3 [347]		LVP	Norris Cole (MIA): -12.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.25,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.26	0.10	0.16	0.00	21	60%	0.37	3	-0.11	8	62%	-0.01
Ray Allen	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.14	0.03	-0.02	5	140%	0.22	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	4	67%	0.10	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.12	0.00	0.03	3	137%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	75%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Michael Beasley	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.04	-0.00	18	50%	0.01	4	-0.07	6	83%	0.02
Mario Chalmers	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.02	-0.11	-0.00	12	61%	0.05	3	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Norris Cole	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13	-0.08	-0.04	0.00	7	44%	0.02	4	-0.14	2	100%	0.01

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26	0.26	0.12	0.12	-0.02	13	73%	0.34	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.16	0.09	0.02	13	70%	0.28	2	-0.06	11	91%	0.08
Pero Antic	0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.13	-0.01	0.03	10	77%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.04
Mike Scott	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	9	57%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.02
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	5	80%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	-0.00	-0.01	10	59%	0.08	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Louis Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	86%	0.17	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.03
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,0	0.00	-0.03	0.04	0.01	10	52%	0.09	3	-0.09	3	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	7	14%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	0.2	32.3	15.8	28.4	2.5	33.2	138.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +33.0%

ATL +0.6%

ATL +4.3%

ATL +9.5%

ATL +2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	ATL	NBA	MIA	ATL	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	15.1	116.3	122.2	105.2
season	15.6	14.8		109.7	103.8
opponent	15.3	15.8		104.7	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.7	14.4	13.7	16.3	14.7
ATL	14.1	13.3	14.5	16.4	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	22	22	0.10	-0.60	0.69	-0.02	4	-11	15	14.1	14.9	-0.78	17.0	13.8	3.28
Ray Allen	72	72	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.37	10	-17	27	14.7	14.8	-0.09	15.4	12.2	3.18
Rashard Lewis	19	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.00	-4	-3	-1	14.2	14.9	-0.66	12.1	15.1	-3.02
Michael Beasley	8	8	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	0.07	-7	0	-7	15.7	14.7	1.09	10.0	14.9	-4.89
Roger Mason Jr.	27	29	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.09	-8	1	-9	16.2	14.2	1.99	12.7	15.2	-2.55
Chris Bosh	67	69	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.35	5	-12	17	15.0	14.2	0.76	15.3	12.7	2.53
Shane Battier	44	43	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	-0.02	-8	1	-9	14.4	15.1	-0.69	14.6	14.4	0.15
Chris Andersen	38	38	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	0.05	-11	4	-15	15.4	14.3	1.10	12.4	15.8	-3.37
LeBron James	79	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.31	0	-7	7	14.1	17.4	-3.25	15.0	12.5	2.50
Norris Cole	57	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.37	1	-8	9	14.9	14.5	0.40	15.1	13.7	1.31
Mario Chalmers	57	59	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.23	-17	10	-27	14.6	14.9	-0.27	13.9	15.3	-1.39

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shelvin Mack	56	54	0.95	-0.45	1.40	0.42	18	-11	29	13.4	15.9	-2.46	15.4	14.0	1.39
Kyle Korver	81	79	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.23	15	-8	23	14.9	12.9	1.96	14.9	14.1	0.79
Paul Millsap	62	59	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.25	10	-3	13	15.4	12.9	2.47	15.1	14.2	0.98
Pero Antic	49	49	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	3	1	15.5	13.5	1.97	15.4	14.1	1.24
DeMarre Carroll	74	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	6	-5	15.0	12.9	2.11	14.3	16.2	-1.94
Mike Scott	47	47	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.00	1	6	-5	12.6	16.2	-3.66	14.1	15.3	-1.23
Elton Brand	42	43	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	11	-15	14.0	14.8	-0.78	14.3	15.1	-0.87
Jeff Teague	40	41	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	0.03	-5	12	-17	15.1	14.1	1.10	14.2	15.1	-0.95
Louis Williams	44	44	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.16	-5	12	-17	13.8	15.1	-1.30	15.0	14.6	0.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.78,0.76,0.73,0.64,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.78,0.64,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.53,0.35,0.46,0.62,0.89,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 81, DET 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.51,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.61,0.67,0.56,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.63,0.36,0.29,0.46,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.99,1	92.6%
NYK 96, POR 103	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.68,0.72,0.72,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.7,0.66,0.62,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.85,0.84,0.84,1	91.2%
MIN 85, POR 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.47,0.5,0.54,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.7,0.71,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.75,0.81,0.7,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.72,0.78,0.91,1	91.0%