NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	111		Excitement	5.8 [669]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): +29.0%
Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Comeback	1.1 [241]		LVP	Ricky Rubio (MIN): -15.6%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0.29	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.21,0.19,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.29	0.23	0.08	0.02	19	75%	0.34	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Isaiah Thomas	0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.14	0.04	0.08	-0.02	16	72%	0.27	7	-0.13	4	100%	0.04
Derrick Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.00	-0.01	11	64%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Aaron Gray	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0.01	-0.07	0.03	-0.04	19	50%	0.10	5	-0.10	2	100%	0.02
Quincy Acy	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Travis Outlaw	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.02	0.02	7	43%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	-0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.10	-0.01	-0.02	5	17%	-0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Love	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.19	0.19	0.17	0.04	0.02	16	71%	0.22	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.01
Kevin Martin	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	14	47%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	67%	0.02	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Alexey Shved	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	10	52%	0.05	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.02
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.04	0.04	14	44%	0.01	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Dante Cunningham	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	37%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	57%	0.04	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.00
Nikola Pekovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.09,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	12	48%	-0.04	3	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Ricky Rubio	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.04	0.00	6	42%	-0.03	5	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	2.3	30.5	15.6	25.4	2.6	38.3	139.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +51.2%

MIN -0.6%

SAC +5.9%

MIN -11.0%

SAC +4.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MIN	NBA	SAC	MIN	NBA
this game	15.3	13.2	15.1	109.9	106.9	105.2
season	15.4	14.6		104.5	107.3
opponent	14.5	14.7		104.7	107.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.0	15.3	15.0	15.8	15.3
MIN	13.2	14.1	13.8	11.8	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Isaiah Thomas	89	89	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.42	3	0	3	15.1	16.7	-1.68	13.1	14.4	-1.33
Rudy Gay	77	78	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.39	2	1	1	15.8	13.7	2.10	13.3	13.0	0.26
DeMarcus Cousins	72	73	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	-2	7	15.2	15.5	-0.35	13.4	12.9	0.49
Jason Thompson	79	78	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.44	-3	6	-9	15.2	15.4	-0.18	13.0	14.0	-1.03
Marcus Thornton	58	57	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.12	8	-5	13	16.0	14.3	1.76	13.8	12.5	1.32
Derrick Williams	60	60	0.18	0.32	-0.13	0.36	-6	9	-15	15.2	15.4	-0.25	13.0	13.7	-0.69
Travis Outlaw	9	9	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.03	6	-3	9	12.0	15.6	-3.59	15.0	13.1	1.92
Aaron Gray	5	5	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.07	2	1	1	13.4	15.4	-1.96	13.0	13.3	-0.26
Quincy Acy	29	28	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.06	-2	5	-7	15.4	15.2	0.25	12.8	13.4	-0.64
Jimmer Fredette	12	12	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	-0.01	0	3	-3	16.7	15.1	1.68	14.4	13.1	1.33
Ben McLemore	15	16	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	3	-3	13.1	15.6	-2.51	12.4	13.4	-1.04

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dante Cunningham	16	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.03	1	-4	5	14.3	13.0	1.27	16.7	15.0	1.76
Jose Juan Barea	51	51	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.35	7	-10	17	12.8	13.7	-0.86	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Ronny Turiaf	32	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	1	-5	13.7	13.0	0.64	14.7	15.5	-0.76
Chase Budinger	28	28	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.01	-7	4	-11	14.1	12.9	1.19	15.4	15.2	0.22
Alexey Shved	53	52	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.29	2	-5	7	12.9	13.6	-0.64	15.0	15.6	-0.59
Kevin Martin	48	49	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.12	-5	2	-7	13.6	12.9	0.64	15.6	15.0	0.59
Corey Brewer	73	73	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-7	11	12.9	14.1	-1.19	15.2	15.4	-0.22
Ricky Rubio	50	50	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.07	-10	7	-17	13.7	12.8	0.86	15.4	15.2	0.22
Nikola Pekovic	74	75	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.39	0	-3	3	13.1	13.6	-0.42	15.7	14.0	1.71
Kevin Love	80	80	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.37	-3	0	-3	13.0	14.3	-1.37	14.8	17.2	-2.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.41,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.53,0.46,0.48,0.36,0.33,0.3,0.2,0.23,0.2,0.25,0.27,0.22,0.18,0.12,0.16,0.15,0.13,0.18,0.13,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 105, UTA 88	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.44,0.48,0.44,0.34,0.32,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.23,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.15,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
PHI 116, MIL 111	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.36,0.28,0.27,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.2,0.27,0.22,0.16,0.18,0.17,0.16,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.1,0.01,0.01,0.02,0	94.8%
CHI 103, CHH 89	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.33,0.27,0.2,0.21,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	94.8%