NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	119		Excitement	5.8 [681]		MVP	Rudy Gay (SAC): +23.5%
Sacramento Kings	123		Comeback	2.8 [219]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -13.4%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.04	0.04	-0.05	12	35%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Robin Lopez	0.05	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	0.01	0.03	13	56%	0.05	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01	0.20	-0.01	0.21	24	73%	0.12	6	-0.13	8	100%	0.03
Mo Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	9	45%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	1	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	7	55%	0.04	4	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.03	-0.07	0.03	20	48%	-0.04	4	-0.10	10	80%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.21,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.24	0.04	0.05	16	78%	0.27	1	-0.04	9	100%	0.04
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.06	0.01	14	55%	0.13	0	0.00	12	83%	0.04
Derrick Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.02	7	58%	0.08	0	0.00	10	60%	-0.02
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ben McLemore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	5	30%	-0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quincy Acy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	0.00	3	37%	-0.01	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.04	-0.07	0.03	28	49%	0.00	2	-0.06	15	60%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.0	33.6	15.6	25.5	2.7	51.0	160.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +27.9%

POR -4.8%

SAC +9.6%

SAC +18.1%

POR -0.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	SAC	NBA	POR	SAC	NBA
this game	14.1	13.3	15.1	114.4	116.0	105.2
season	15.1	15.4		109.6	104.5
opponent	14.7	14.8		107.1	106.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	16.0	14.0	16.0	11.1	14.1
SAC	14.0	12.2	14.6	12.9	13.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thomas Robinson	7	9	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-2	0	13.7	14.1	-0.40	14.2	13.3	0.95
Will Barton	16	18	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.06	-2	-2	0	16.6	13.6	3.00	12.6	13.5	-0.89
Joel Freeland	17	18	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.09	-2	-2	0	16.7	13.6	3.13	14.6	13.1	1.45
Mo Williams	45	48	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.16	0	-4	4	14.6	13.7	0.98	13.5	13.2	0.28
Meyers Leonard	18	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	6	-16	13.4	14.2	-0.78	12.7	13.5	-0.76
Nicolas Batum	84	86	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.50	8	-12	20	14.2	13.6	0.60	13.4	13.0	0.37
Wesley Matthews	84	83	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-4	4	13.4	17.1	-3.79	13.1	14.2	-1.05
LaMarcus Aldridge	84	86	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.46	6	-10	16	14.2	13.6	0.60	13.4	13.0	0.37
Robin Lopez	80	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.20	-8	4	-12	13.8	14.9	-1.08	13.5	12.9	0.67
Damian Lillard	85	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.24	-12	8	-20	13.7	15.9	-2.21	13.0	14.9	-1.95

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarcus Cousins	92	91	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.32	7	-3	10	13.6	11.6	2.05	14.3	12.8	1.42
Rudy Gay	64	65	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	-9	22	14.1	12.3	1.80	15.0	12.6	2.44
Marcus Thornton	49	48	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.24	6	-2	8	13.3	13.4	-0.16	13.4	14.7	-1.36
Jason Thompson	75	77	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.40	0	4	-4	13.5	13.0	0.45	13.8	14.9	-1.03
Derrick Williams	71	69	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.35	-2	6	-8	12.6	14.8	-2.17	13.2	15.7	-2.50
Jimmer Fredette	27	25	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.07	12	-8	20	13.2	13.4	-0.17	13.5	14.3	-0.75
Isaiah Thomas	80	79	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.44	-6	10	-16	13.2	13.7	-0.40	14.3	13.5	0.75
Aaron Gray	12	11	0.05	0.45	-0.40	-0.04	3	1	2	13.3	13.4	-0.02	14.5	14.0	0.41
Ben McLemore	39	37	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	4	-4	14.0	13.0	1.03	14.8	13.7	1.12
Quincy Acy	21	18	-0.23	0.73	-0.97	0.15	-13	17	-30	11.5	13.8	-2.34	14.5	14.0	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.4,0.34,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.4,0.33,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.63,0.71,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.96,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 88, PHX 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.44,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.55,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.76,0.81,0.72,0.74,0.85,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.2%
POR 83, HOU 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.4,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.63,0.79,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.9%
ATL 85, IND 101	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.38,0.46,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.27,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.52,0.61,0.65,0.59,0.69,0.7,0.74,0.82,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	93.8%