NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Phoenix Suns	92		Excitement	5.2 [802]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +18.7%
Miami Heat	107		Comeback	1.6 [1210]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -9.5%

Phoenix Suns
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Channing Frye	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.02	12	67%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dionte Christmas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.00	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Viacheslav Kravtsov	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Miles Plumlee	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Markieff Morris	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.04	9	46%	0.02	2	-0.03	8	75%	-0.00
Marcus Morris	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	0.01	0.03	12	41%	-0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	-0.01
Ish Smith	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	13	46%	0.03	3	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.01	0.04	12	50%	-0.02	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Archie Goodwin	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
PJ Tucker	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.02	-0.03	11	42%	-0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.25	0.06	0.12	14	90%	0.29	4	-0.10	11	100%	0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.09	0.02	0.01	13	72%	0.16	3	-0.05	3	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.01	0.01	11	71%	0.14	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.02	-0.01	8	61%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	5	60%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.00	0.03	-0.02	8	44%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.02	-0.03	6	17%	-0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	9	32%	-0.05	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.3	29.4	16.6	22.4	2.4	37.5	134.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +40.8%

MIA +13.4%

PHX -7.0%

MIA +3.3%

PHX -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	PHX	MIA	NBA	PHX	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	15.1	15.1	94.8	112.6	105.2
season	14.7	15.6		107.7	109.7
opponent	15.8	14.9		105.1	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
PHX	15.6	14.0	17.9	12.6	14.9
MIA	16.3	14.2	15.5	14.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Phoenix Suns
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dionte Christmas	13	13	0.17	-0.67	0.84	0.02	5	-20	25	13.8	15.0	-1.25	14.8	15.2	-0.35
Channing Frye	65	61	0.10	-0.60	0.71	-0.13	8	-23	31	14.7	15.2	-0.59	15.6	14.4	1.19
Viacheslav Kravtsov	2	3	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-15	15	15.0	14.9	0.15	13.3	15.2	-1.87
PJ Tucker	70	68	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.19	2	-17	19	15.6	13.0	2.57	15.6	14.0	1.55
Goran Dragic	77	74	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.15	-3	-12	9	15.4	12.8	2.53	15.5	13.8	1.72
Ish Smith	23	21	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	0.12	-13	-2	-11	12.2	15.7	-3.46	13.8	15.5	-1.72
Miles Plumlee	47	48	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.08	-7	-8	1	16.3	13.5	2.76	15.1	15.2	-0.13
Archie Goodwin	22	24	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.12	-16	1	-17	14.0	15.1	-1.17	14.2	15.5	-1.26
Gerald Green	65	65	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	-1	-13	15.6	13.4	2.21	14.9	15.6	-0.66
Markieff Morris	55	52	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.03	-17	2	-19	14.2	15.8	-1.60	15.3	15.0	0.35
Marcus Morris	46	46	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	0.05	-20	5	-25	13.6	16.0	-2.45	14.8	15.5	-0.67

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	67	69	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.11	22	-7	29	14.4	16.8	-2.37	14.5	15.7	-1.16
Ray Allen	49	52	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.05	17	-2	19	15.5	14.8	0.67	14.7	15.0	-0.35
Chris Andersen	38	39	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.02	13	2	11	15.6	14.9	0.72	13.8	15.5	-1.69
Roger Mason Jr.	39	40	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.05	9	6	3	14.3	15.7	-1.47	13.5	15.8	-2.31
Rashard Lewis	15	15	0.26	0.24	0.02	-0.12	13	2	11	14.5	15.3	-0.73	15.7	14.7	1.04
Shane Battier	31	30	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.12	1	14	-13	15.8	14.8	0.93	16.0	14.3	1.70
LeBron James	67	67	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.10	1	14	-13	15.5	14.3	1.22	15.4	13.5	1.91
Chris Bosh	54	56	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.04	2	13	-11	14.9	15.4	-0.47	15.6	13.9	1.65
Norris Cole	66	66	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	13	-11	15.6	14.1	1.55	15.6	13.3	2.30
Michael Beasley	46	49	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.22	-5	20	-25	15.1	15.2	-0.03	13.8	15.9	-2.10
James Jones	3	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	13.3	15.2	-1.87	13.0	14.9	-1.91
Joel Anthony	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	15	-15	13.3	15.2	-1.87	15.0	14.9	0.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.64,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.62,0.78,0.7,0.66,0.72,0.81,0.84,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 86, CLE 95	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.58,0.6,0.67,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.69,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.78,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	96.1%
LAC 74, IND 89	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.5,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.65,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.54,0.62,0.58,0.66,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.65,0.73,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.0%
OKC 77, HOU 89	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.56,0.57,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.67,0.67,0.56,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.79,0.74,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.4%