NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	103		Excitement	7.2 [384]		MVP	Kyle Korver (ATL): +23.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	105		Comeback	1.2 [666]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -24.0%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Korver	0.23	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.33,0.23	0.25	0.03	0.05	10	110%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17	0.02	0.15	0.01	9	50%	0.21	1	-0.04	10	60%	-0.02
Pero Antic	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Jenkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Elton Brand	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Cartier Martin	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.04	-0.05	0.01	7	64%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	-0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Mike Scott	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	13	43%	-0.04	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jeff Teague	-0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	18	39%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.01	11	38%	-0.04	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
Al Horford	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24	-0.09	-0.14	0.00	12	43%	-0.02	4	-0.22	4	50%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	9	65%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Xavier Henry	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.07	0.07	0.07	0.01	0.01	11	60%	0.12	1	-0.06	8	75%	0.02
Jordan Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	2	100%	0.09	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Wesley Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.01	6	60%	0.02	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Jodie Meeks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	5	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.02	5	70%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.12,-0.02	-0.02	-0.11	0.05	-0.03	18	37%	0.03	3	-0.05	7	71%	0.06
Steve Nash	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.05	-0.01	13	46%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	7	71%	0.06	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	5	30%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jordan Farmar	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.03	8	31%	-0.03	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.5	1.8	30.4	15.6	26.2	2.4	38.5	136.5
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL -34.2%

LAL +41.6%

LAL +15.7%

LAL +20.0%

LAL +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	LAL	NBA	ATL	LAL	NBA
this game	12.8	14.4	15.1	96.3	100.0	105.2
season	14.8	14.0		103.8	102.9
opponent	14.8	15.3		108.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	15.4	12.6	11.4	12.1	12.8
LAL	13.4	14.7	14.4	15.0	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pero Antic	19	20	0.03	-0.53	0.57	-0.26	10	-12	22	11.3	13.1	-1.87	12.2	14.9	-2.63
DeMarre Carroll	45	45	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.02	-3	1	-4	12.6	13.0	-0.43	12.6	15.7	-3.04
Elton Brand	8	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.07	-6	4	-10	18.1	12.4	5.75	16.5	14.3	2.25
Kyle Korver	84	85	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.51	12	-14	26	12.3	14.6	-2.24	14.4	14.4	-0.09
John Jenkins	12	10	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	8	-18	16.1	12.4	3.69	14.2	14.4	-0.20
Cartier Martin	60	55	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.38	6	-8	14	12.6	13.0	-0.43	16.3	12.3	3.97
Dennis Schroder	48	47	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.06	-7	5	-12	13.6	12.2	1.38	13.7	14.9	-1.19
Mike Scott	49	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.06	-7	5	-12	13.1	12.5	0.63	13.5	15.1	-1.62
Paul Millsap	64	63	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-5	8	12.6	13.1	-0.52	14.9	13.5	1.39
Jeff Teague	72	72	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.36	-4	2	-6	12.6	13.2	-0.55	14.7	13.7	0.95
Al Horford	74	74	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.39	-4	2	-6	12.6	13.3	-0.72	14.7	13.6	1.09

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Xavier Henry	57	59	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.29	4	-2	6	14.8	13.9	0.89	12.4	13.2	-0.81
Steve Blake	72	72	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.39	-2	4	-6	14.9	13.3	1.57	12.5	13.5	-1.01
Jordan Hill	28	27	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.34	-1	3	-4	15.6	13.9	1.62	13.0	12.7	0.31
Pau Gasol	62	60	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	4	-6	15.0	13.5	1.51	12.7	13.0	-0.31
Jodie Meeks	37	39	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.23	0	2	-2	13.2	15.0	-1.88	12.9	12.7	0.19
Steve Nash	63	62	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.26	-2	4	-6	15.1	13.3	1.83	13.0	12.6	0.43
Jordan Farmar	41	44	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.05	4	-2	6	13.6	14.9	-1.31	12.7	12.9	-0.13
Nick Young	45	45	0.16	0.34	-0.19	0.10	2	0	2	13.8	14.8	-1.06	13.5	12.3	1.26
Chris Kaman	35	38	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	-2	6	13.7	14.7	-0.96	12.8	12.8	-0.06
Shawne Williams	39	40	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.04	3	-1	4	13.8	14.7	-0.97	13.5	12.4	1.07
Wesley Johnson	46	49	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.11	0	2	-2	13.8	14.8	-0.99	12.3	13.2	-0.88

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.66,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.64,0.72,0.76,0.82,0.88,0.85,0.87,0.84,0.79,0.86,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.83,0.84,0.74,0.85,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.79,0.89,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.81,0.84,0.86,0.74,1
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 103, MIN 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.67,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.8,0.77,0.84,0.82,0.82,0.84,0.84,0.84,0.85,0.84,0.9,0.84,0.84,0.83,0.85,0.73,0.74,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.86,0.76,0.88,0.99,0.97,0.84,0.73,1	93.6%
SAC 87, HOU 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.85,0.89,0.86,0.85,0.84,0.87,0.9,0.84,0.86,0.86,0.78,0.78,0.84,0.87,0.83,0.87,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.94,0.87,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.84,1	93.5%
IND 87, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.9,0.87,0.85,0.89,0.81,0.83,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.89,0.84,0.73,1	93.5%