NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	101		Excitement	4.3 [980]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (MIA): +17.1%
Miami Heat	109		Comeback	3.1 [996]		LVP	Jason Terry (BOS): -12.4%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.16,0.13,0.15,0.17,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.02	0.01	17	66%	0.16	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Brandon Bass	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	-0.00	-0.01	9	74%	0.15	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.02
Jordan Crawford	0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	-0.00	15	59%	0.10	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Chris Wilcox	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DJ White	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	-0.01	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.07	0.00	0.09	16	56%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	9	39%	-0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Shavlik Randolph	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Williams	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.03	-0.02	9	33%	-0.08	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.03,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.14	0.03	0.00	11	76%	0.19	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.14	0.03	0.04	10	83%	0.15	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	5	90%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.12	0.02	0.02	6	100%	0.15	2	-0.03	5	80%	-0.00
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.02	0.01	10	65%	0.10	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	75%	0.09	3	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	6	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.15	0.02	-0.04	12	37%	0.01	5	-0.10	6	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.7	1.7	27.5	15.8	25.4	2.6	32.3	130.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +50.7%

BOS -5.0%

MIA +4.1%

BOS -3.7%

MIA +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.2	15.3	15.4	106.3	116.0	104.1
season	14.9	15.7		101.2	110.2
opponent	15.9	16.2		102.4	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	13.5	16.6	15.8	14.9	15.2
MIA	16.5	14.0	14.9	15.8	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DJ White	1	2	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-12	16	3.0	15.3	-12.30	13.0	15.4	-2.36
Chris Wilcox	23	23	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.41	10	-18	28	13.8	15.6	-1.77	15.1	15.4	-0.29
Shavlik Randolph	20	20	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.07	-4	-4	0	13.8	15.5	-1.73	16.0	15.1	0.88
Terrence Williams	37	34	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.14	-2	-6	4	14.7	15.5	-0.81	15.0	15.5	-0.53
Brandon Bass	66	65	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.10	-5	-3	-2	15.9	13.6	2.33	15.6	14.7	0.85
Jordan Crawford	72	71	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.02	-9	1	-10	15.2	15.0	0.22	15.1	16.0	-0.97
Jason Terry	54	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.13	-6	-2	-4	15.2	15.1	0.04	15.3	15.3	-0.03
Avery Bradley	66	66	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.08	-8	0	-8	15.3	14.8	0.59	15.5	14.8	0.69
Jeff Green	72	72	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	2	-12	15.5	14.3	1.20	15.0	16.3	-1.26
Courtney Lee	64	63	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	-0.13	-10	2	-12	15.2	15.0	0.20	15.6	14.8	0.75

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	47	48	0.53	-0.03	0.56	-0.02	19	-11	30	14.4	16.2	-1.77	15.4	15.0	0.42
Norris Cole	42	42	0.49	0.01	0.47	-0.01	17	-9	26	15.3	15.3	-0.08	15.5	14.9	0.64
Ray Allen	49	51	0.35	0.15	0.21	0.06	10	-2	12	14.7	16.0	-1.37	14.4	16.1	-1.76
Chris Andersen	39	41	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.02	11	-3	14	14.2	16.1	-1.89	14.5	15.6	-1.11
Dwyane Wade	68	70	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.05	8	0	8	15.5	14.8	0.64	15.1	15.2	-0.10
LeBron James	55	56	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.06	6	2	4	15.7	14.8	0.92	15.8	14.2	1.59
Mario Chalmers	62	61	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.43	-9	17	-26	15.4	15.1	0.37	15.3	14.9	0.35
Chris Bosh	46	46	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	6	-4	16.5	14.1	2.42	16.4	14.0	2.37
Juwan Howard	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	14	-20	15.4	15.3	0.10	12.7	15.3	-2.52
James Jones	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	14	-20	15.4	15.3	0.10	12.7	15.3	-2.52
Joel Anthony	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	14	-20	15.4	15.3	0.10	12.7	15.3	-2.52
Mike Miller	47	48	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	14	-20	15.7	14.9	0.83	14.6	15.7	-1.14

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.37,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.31,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.47,0.59,0.64,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.81,0.75,0.72,0.7,0.84,0.82,0.74,0.86,0.8,0.84,0.82,0.92,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 108, MEM 121	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.43,0.45,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.38,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.78,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.82,0.86,0.84,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.7%
LAL 105, PHX 125	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.42,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.74,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.84,0.74,0.72,0.79,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1,1	94.6%
MIL 86, UTA 100	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.35,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.8,0.81,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,1,0.98,0.99,1,1,1	94.5%