NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	96		Excitement	2.7 [1236]		MVP	Will Barton (POR): +11.1%
Portland Trail Blazers	91		Comeback	1.0 [1016]		LVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): -7.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Kaman	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.00	-0.02	21	59%	0.12	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.11	0.00	0.06	14	71%	0.07	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	45%	0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.06	7	37%	0.03	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01	-0.12	0.03	-0.11	12	29%	0.05	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	10	57%	0.02	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00
Vince Carter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	11	50%	0.00	0	0.00	6	67%	-0.01
Mike James	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	4	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.09	0.00	-0.08	6	33%	0.02	3	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Will Barton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11	0.11	0.16	0.02	0.06	11	71%	0.11	0	0.00	9	89%	0.02
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.03	10	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Meyers Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	-0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Victor Claver	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	0.01	5	70%	0.01	4	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.02	-0.03	19	35%	-0.07	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.02	0.06	6	67%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.03	0.04	16	53%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.6	27.9	14.8	25.3	1.6	31.1	128.0
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +35.9%

POR -2.5%

DAL +4.0%

DAL +13.3%

POR -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	POR	NBA	DAL	POR	NBA
this game	15.5	15.3	15.4	102.1	97.8	104.1
season	14.5	15.8		104.3	104.3
opponent	15.3	15.6		107.6	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	16.8	13.0	14.9	17.4	15.5
POR	18.4	17.0	15.1	11.4	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	45	47	0.42	0.08	0.33	-0.20	21	-16	37	14.5	16.4	-1.94	16.7	13.8	2.96
O.J. Mayo	69	70	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.33	2	3	-1	15.9	14.4	1.53	15.1	15.9	-0.78
Shawn Marion	66	66	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.18	5	0	5	15.9	14.6	1.25	15.5	14.6	0.92
Brandan Wright	46	43	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.19	4	1	3	15.5	15.5	0.00	15.5	15.1	0.39
Darren Collison	61	60	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.29	0	5	-5	15.3	15.9	-0.55	15.1	15.5	-0.37
Vince Carter	60	58	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.30	-2	7	-9	15.4	15.7	-0.24	15.6	14.8	0.72
Chris Kaman	48	50	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.16	1	4	-3	15.5	15.5	-0.00	15.1	15.5	-0.39
Jae Crowder	25	23	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.15	1	4	-3	14.3	16.0	-1.64	14.4	15.6	-1.18
Mike James	50	48	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.38	-7	12	-19	16.3	14.6	1.71	14.0	16.6	-2.60

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Meyers Leonard	26	29	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.39	11	-16	27	14.3	15.7	-1.35	16.8	14.9	1.89
Will Barton	65	66	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.52	13	-18	31	13.9	18.5	-4.61	15.6	15.3	0.28
Luke Babbitt	52	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.44	9	-14	23	14.5	16.2	-1.72	15.4	15.6	-0.20
Eric Maynor	51	50	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.31	1	-6	7	14.5	16.2	-1.70	15.7	15.3	0.34
Wesley Matthews	24	24	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.16	-16	11	-27	18.7	14.1	4.62	15.4	15.6	-0.14
JJ Hickson	42	41	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	0.13	-15	10	-25	16.3	14.4	1.88	14.8	16.1	-1.31
Victor Claver	54	54	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.07	-14	9	-23	16.2	14.0	2.16	15.0	16.2	-1.14
Damian Lillard	77	79	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-8	11	15.0	16.4	-1.40	16.0	12.8	3.24
LaMarcus Aldridge	74	74	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.02	-17	12	-29	15.8	13.3	2.53	15.1	16.9	-1.81

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.34,0.28,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.05,0.06,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.02,0
Game		Similarity Score
DEN 98, LAC 86	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.3,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%
LAC 122, HOU 106	0.5,0.51,0.44,0.43,0.34,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.35,0.35,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.14,0.1,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0	96.9%
PHI 105, IND 95	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.4,0.32,0.33,0.32,0.31,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.32,0.3,0.32,0.27,0.3,0.2,0.19,0.15,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.09,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.01,0,0	96.9%