NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	89		Excitement	6.0 [587]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +19.0%
Miami Heat	103		Comeback	3.5 [1023]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -16.5%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kyle Singler	0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.05	0.04	14	64%	0.10	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	8	45%	0.08	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
Greg Monroe	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	19	53%	0.07	3	-0.08	5	60%	-0.02
Charlie Villanueva	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.08	-0.04	11	78%	0.13	7	-0.18	1	100%	0.01
Jason Maxiell	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	6	37%	-0.03	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.02
Will Bynum	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kim English	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	3	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.14	-0.05	-0.03	15	34%	-0.05	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.05	0.05	15	81%	0.25	3	-0.06	6	67%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.09	-0.02	7	65%	0.18	1	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	4	100%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	5	83%	0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	6	79%	0.09	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.04	1	150%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.10	0.02	-0.03	17	47%	0.07	6	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.13	-0.05	-0.01	7	25%	-0.09	3	-0.08	6	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.1	2.4	31.4	16.5	27.3	2.4	32.3	138.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +54.6%

MIA +6.5%

DET -26.9%

MIA +14.4%

MIA +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	MIA	NBA	DET	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	14.1	15.4	94.7	110.8	104.1
season	15.7	15.7		102.3	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.5		102.4	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.1	16.1	20.1	15.7	16.7
MIA	16.2	13.2	13.2	13.7	14.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Maxiell	36	37	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	0.03	-5	-9	4	17.2	16.3	0.91	14.0	14.2	-0.21
Charlie Villanueva	21	20	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.03	-5	-9	4	16.3	16.8	-0.46	12.7	14.5	-1.72
Rodney Stuckey	80	79	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.07	-4	-10	6	16.4	18.5	-2.12	14.4	12.6	1.80
Jonas Jerebko	48	47	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.09	-4	-10	6	16.9	16.5	0.38	14.6	13.6	1.05
Kim English	23	24	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.05	-8	-6	-2	16.5	16.8	-0.28	12.5	14.6	-2.10
Kyle Singler	71	70	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.06	-9	-5	-4	16.4	17.7	-1.39	14.7	12.1	2.61
Will Bynum	27	27	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	-5	-4	18.1	16.1	2.04	12.7	14.7	-1.91
Jose Calderon	86	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.05	-12	-2	-10	16.6	17.5	-0.88	13.9	15.6	-1.62
Greg Monroe	78	77	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.05	-14	0	-14	16.7	16.7	0.00	14.5	12.4	2.08

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	76	78	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.11	14	0	14	14.2	13.5	0.69	16.7	16.8	-0.15
Shane Battier	56	57	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	2	10	14.4	13.6	0.74	16.6	16.8	-0.20
Norris Cole	46	45	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.07	9	5	4	14.0	14.2	-0.23	16.0	17.3	-1.37
Chris Andersen	28	28	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.23	3	11	-8	14.6	13.9	0.78	17.7	16.3	1.46
Dwyane Wade	75	76	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.15	5	9	-4	13.7	15.6	-1.88	16.7	16.7	0.03
Ray Allen	33	34	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.11	6	8	-2	15.9	13.1	2.76	17.1	16.5	0.58
Mario Chalmers	47	49	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.02	5	9	-4	14.2	14.0	0.23	17.3	16.0	1.37
Chris Bosh	61	63	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.01	6	8	-2	14.2	13.9	0.24	16.4	17.2	-0.75
James Jones	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	11	-8	5.3	14.4	-9.06	9.0	16.9	-7.86
Mike Miller	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	11	-8	5.3	14.4	-9.06	9.0	16.9	-7.86
Joel Anthony	3	2	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	11	-8	5.3	14.4	-9.06	9.0	16.9	-7.86
Udonis Haslem	34	34	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.06	1	13	-12	14.1	14.1	0.03	17.5	16.2	1.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.41,0.43,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.27,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.23,0.29,0.41,0.41,0.46,0.4,0.31,0.31,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.8,0.77,0.9,0.96,1,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 95, POR 103	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.38,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.26,0.25,0.34,0.24,0.28,0.3,0.33,0.37,0.34,0.37,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.52,0.44,0.44,0.62,0.62,0.82,0.89,0.88,0.83,0.95,0.96,0.93,0.95,0.97,1,1	94.1%
PHI 101, NYK 113	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.29,0.3,0.39,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.46,0.29,0.23,0.27,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.38,0.44,0.4,0.52,0.58,0.74,0.79,0.83,0.73,0.83,0.94,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.7%
LAC 86, TOR 100	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.38,0.29,0.29,0.26,0.32,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.41,0.46,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.48,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.79,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	93.5%