NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	108		Excitement	12.0 [19]		MVP	JJ Redick (MIL): +51.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	109		Comeback	23.3 [55]		LVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): -34.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Enes Kanter	0.26	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.2,0.2,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.26	0.06	0.24	0.03	13	60%	0.34	1	-0.07	4	100%	0.03
DeMarre Carroll	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.00	-0.01	8	72%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.10
Derrick Favors	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.03	0.02	20	53%	0.04	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.02
Alec Burks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.16,0.07,-0.06,-0.06	0.01	-0.08	0.00	10	79%	0.26	6	-0.33	4	100%	0.06
Randy Foye	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08	-0.09	-0.05	-0.06	6	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.01	5	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.02	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.17	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,0.11,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0,-0.17	-0.04	-0.13	0.00	17	48%	0.07	3	-0.24	12	67%	-0.03
Gordon Hayward	-0.35	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.21,-0.21,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.14	-0.21	0.00	16	34%	-0.22	3	-0.13	6	100%	0.05

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.51	0.51	0.07	0.43	-0.02	14	61%	0.54	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.44,0.35,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.42	0.42	0.13	0.31	0.02	21	72%	0.56	5	-0.14	5	60%	-0.04
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.09	0.00	14	71%	0.38	3	-0.20	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	50%	0.02	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	4	25%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.01	5	70%	0.02	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.00	7	33%	-0.03	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Larry Sanders	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	9	36%	-0.07	2	-0.07	4	50%	-0.03
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22	-0.23	-0.08	-0.16	-0.01	13	27%	-0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.4	1.8	25.3	15.5	21.2	1.5	38.4	1.5	17.8	145.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +105.2%

UTA -24.2%

UTA -76.9%

MIL +41.5%

MIL +4.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	MIL	NBA	UTA	MIL	NBA
this game	15.9	13.9	15.4	100.9	102.8	104.1
season	16.0	14.7		104.6	101.6
opponent	15.3	15.1		103.9	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
UTA	17.4	17.0	14.9	13.6	20.2	15.9
MIL	13.3	15.0	13.3	13.1	17.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeMarre Carroll	68	66	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.32	8	-9	17	15.0	17.6	-2.55	14.0	13.7	0.33
Marvin Williams	28	29	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.02	-6	5	-11	17.6	15.4	2.20	14.1	13.8	0.22
Earl Watson	34	34	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	5	-11	17.3	15.3	2.02	13.7	14.0	-0.25
Enes Kanter	65	65	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.43	5	-6	11	15.5	16.6	-1.03	13.6	14.3	-0.67
Alec Burks	73	72	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.44	5	-6	11	15.3	17.3	-2.02	14.0	13.7	0.25
Gordon Hayward	79	77	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.45	5	-6	11	15.4	17.6	-2.20	13.8	14.1	-0.22
Derrick Favors	62	61	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.07	-9	8	-17	15.5	16.5	-1.02	13.6	14.3	-0.63
Paul Millsap	87	86	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.44	2	-3	5	16.6	13.3	3.25	14.3	12.2	2.04
Randy Foye	39	40	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.16	-9	8	-17	17.6	15.0	2.55	13.7	14.0	-0.33

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Monta Ellis	87	87	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-7	15	14.5	11.3	3.16	15.7	17.2	-1.54
Brandon Jennings	95	97	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.45	4	-3	7	13.3	18.8	-5.48	15.7	18.7	-3.04
Luc Mbah a Moute	41	40	0.38	0.12	0.25	0.08	10	-9	19	14.1	13.8	0.31	15.9	15.9	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	61	62	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.33	1	0	1	14.9	12.6	2.35	15.7	16.2	-0.52
Samuel Dalembert	45	45	0.14	0.36	-0.21	0.14	0	1	-1	12.6	14.9	-2.35	16.2	15.7	0.52
Larry Sanders	70	70	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.06	4	-3	7	14.1	13.5	0.66	15.1	17.5	-2.44
JJ Redick	59	59	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.43	-16	17	-33	14.3	13.4	0.86	16.1	15.8	0.31
Ekpe Udoh	28	29	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	5	-9	12.4	14.4	-2.06	16.8	15.6	1.16
Mike Dunleavy	36	38	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	0.01	-3	4	-7	13.2	14.3	-1.08	17.1	15.3	1.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.4,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.39,0.31,0.33,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.86,0.88,0.81,0.91,0.87,0.84,0.88,0.82,0.88,0.83,0.76,0.61,0.69,0.54,0.23,0.42,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.45,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 107, IND 112	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.46,0.32,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.68,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.74,0.75,0.58,0.62,0.79,0.76,0.63,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.33,0.42,0.46,0.55,0.29,0.22,0.27,1	89.8%
SAS 94, MIN 99	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.4,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.55,0.65,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.86,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.81,0.66,0.55,0.45,0.43,0.83,0.46,0.39,0.28,0.55,0.42,1	88.5%
TOR 86, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.29,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.81,0.83,0.8,0.75,0.9,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.54,0.45,0.28,0.24,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.78,0.91,1	88.1%