NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	114		Excitement	3.4 [1139]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +16.2%
Philadelphia 76ers	90		Comeback	1.5 [1095]		LVP	Evan Turner (PHI): -12.9%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.23	0.02	0.09	18	77%	0.18	1	-0.02	7	71%	-0.02
Shane Battier	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.08	0.02	0.00	2	150%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.02	0.01	8	78%	0.12	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Ray Allen	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	9	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Bosh	0.05	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	12	52%	0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	12	62%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jarvis Varnado	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.03	10	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.13	0.03	0.01	11	81%	0.16	2	-0.01	4	75%	-0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	-0.01	-0.01	14	68%	0.12	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.11	0.01	0.05	13	65%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	4	70%	0.00	1	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	0	100%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Arnett Moultrie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Royal Ivey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	-0.07	4	0%	-0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Lavoy Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Evan Turner	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.12	-0.01	-0.00	19	42%	0.01	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.8	28.0	15.8	25.3	2.4	25.7	122.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +30.4%

MIA +6.9%

MIA +5.8%

MIA +5.1%

MIA +1.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	PHI	NBA	MIA	PHI	NBA
this game	15.9	17.2	15.4	131.0	103.4	104.1
season	15.7	15.5		110.2	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.9		104.2	102.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.6	14.9	15.8	16.3	15.9
PHI	14.7	19.4	17.6	17.2	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
LeBron James	56	56	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.05	14	10	4	16.7	14.6	2.08	16.8	17.9	-1.12
Mario Chalmers	49	48	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.03	15	9	6	16.7	15.0	1.68	17.2	17.2	-0.04
Chris Bosh	43	44	0.40	0.10	0.30	-0.04	15	9	6	16.5	15.3	1.17	18.1	16.3	1.84
Dwyane Wade	58	60	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.32	24	0	24	15.6	16.5	-0.90	17.8	15.8	1.99
Udonis Haslem	36	36	0.25	0.25	0.00	-0.07	11	13	-2	16.1	15.8	0.37	17.5	16.9	0.59
Shane Battier	46	45	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.02	9	15	-6	15.6	16.3	-0.66	17.6	16.8	0.82
Ray Allen	46	48	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.14	12	12	0	15.1	16.8	-1.72	17.3	17.1	0.19
Norris Cole	38	39	0.09	0.41	-0.31	-0.17	9	15	-6	15.0	16.7	-1.68	17.2	17.2	0.04
Chris Andersen	27	26	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.06	4	20	-16	14.8	16.4	-1.66	15.3	18.0	-2.62
Joel Anthony	12	12	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	16.7	15.8	0.87	16.9	17.2	-0.31
Rashard Lewis	10	9	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.09	3	21	-18	16.2	15.9	0.32	17.2	17.2	0.04
James Jones	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	24	-24	17.4	15.8	1.60	15.1	17.4	-2.22
Jarvis Varnado	6	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	23	-22	16.2	15.9	0.27	12.4	17.5	-5.08

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-21	18	16.9	17.2	-0.31	16.7	15.8	0.87
Arnett Moultrie	12	12	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.09	-3	-21	18	16.9	17.2	-0.31	16.7	15.8	0.87
Royal Ivey	14	15	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.11	-6	-18	12	20.4	16.6	3.87	14.9	16.1	-1.19
Jeremy Pargo	39	39	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	0.20	-13	-11	-2	18.0	16.5	1.53	15.2	16.5	-1.25
Lavoy Allen	61	59	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.11	-14	-10	-4	17.3	17.0	0.26	15.3	17.2	-1.91
Dorell Wright	57	57	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	0.16	-16	-8	-8	17.2	17.1	0.13	15.8	16.2	-0.38
Nick Young	63	62	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	0.16	-17	-7	-10	16.1	20.0	-3.83	15.8	16.2	-0.34
Spencer Hawes	44	46	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	0.04	-15	-9	-6	17.1	17.3	-0.19	16.7	15.1	1.60
Jrue Holiday	68	68	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.06	-16	-8	-8	16.5	19.5	-2.93	16.3	14.6	1.72
Evan Turner	65	65	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.00	-17	-7	-10	17.7	15.6	2.13	16.1	15.3	0.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.59,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.39,0.25,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.24,0.17,0.09,0.08,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 115, PHX 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.5,0.43,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.42,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.34,0.4,0.33,0.33,0.31,0.26,0.27,0.22,0.12,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
IND 103, BKN 86	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.36,0.31,0.3,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.25,0.13,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%
NYK 109, SAC 87	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.13,0.08,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.6%