NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	98		Excitement	5.4 [724]		MVP	Robin Lopez (NOH): +15.4%
Denver Nuggets	113		Comeback	2.4 [823]		LVP	Eric Gordon (NOH): -15.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Robin Lopez	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.12	0.03	-0.00	6	87%	0.15	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Xavier Henry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	4	75%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darius Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.00	4	33%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Al-Farouq Aminu	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.06	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Jason Smith	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	5	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	1	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	12	48%	0.03	2	-0.05	3	33%	-0.04
Austin Rivers	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.06	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Greivis Vasquez	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	10	59%	0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	0.05	-0.05	0.11	15	62%	-0.02	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.01
Eric Gordon	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.11	-0.03	0.02	8	45%	-0.03	5	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.15	0.03	0.03	14	77%	0.20	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.06	0.03	14	58%	0.13	0	0.00	8	100%	0.04
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.02	12	68%	0.15	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.01	-0.01	18	50%	0.08	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.01	5	50%	0.04	0	0.00	8	87%	0.02
Kenneth Faried	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	0.00	0.03	10	59%	0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	4	50%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	0.05	7	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.3	2.3	28.5	15.4	25.4	2.5	27.3	123.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +17.7%

NOH -2.5%

NOH -4.7%

DEN +40.9%

NOH -1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DEN	NBA	NOH	DEN	NBA
this game	16.5	13.9	15.4	104.3	118.9	104.1
season	16.3	14.4		103.9	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.6		104.0	108.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	18.9	15.6	15.0	17.3	16.5
DEN	14.7	12.1	13.2	16.2	13.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Robin Lopez	28	29	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.14	9	-24	33	17.2	16.3	0.96	12.9	14.4	-1.56
Al-Farouq Aminu	28	27	0.02	-0.52	0.54	-0.01	1	-16	17	15.1	17.1	-1.99	13.7	14.0	-0.34
Austin Rivers	33	36	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.10	2	-17	19	16.0	16.9	-0.88	14.9	13.4	1.56
Roger Mason Jr.	6	7	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-13	11	21.2	16.2	4.94	17.6	13.7	3.91
Jason Smith	25	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.05	-6	-9	3	15.9	16.8	-0.90	15.7	13.4	2.36
Darius Miller	49	49	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.06	-5	-10	5	17.8	15.2	2.58	14.0	13.9	0.11
Xavier Henry	48	48	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.02	-10	-5	-5	16.8	16.3	0.51	14.0	13.9	0.06
Eric Gordon	50	50	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.00	-13	-2	-11	15.9	17.2	-1.29	13.4	14.5	-1.07
Greivis Vasquez	68	67	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.07	-18	3	-21	16.4	17.0	-0.63	13.7	14.6	-0.99
Ryan Anderson	69	71	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.08	-14	-1	-13	17.0	15.3	1.72	13.9	14.0	-0.07
Anthony Davis	66	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	0.05	-19	4	-23	16.0	17.7	-1.72	13.6	14.7	-1.14

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Danilo Gallinari	75	73	0.63	-0.13	0.77	-0.07	24	-9	33	13.8	14.6	-0.89	15.9	18.8	-2.86
Ty Lawson	74	75	0.60	-0.10	0.69	-0.14	25	-10	35	13.4	16.0	-2.64	16.0	18.7	-2.75
Kenneth Faried	58	58	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.02	17	-2	19	14.1	13.7	0.40	16.5	16.6	-0.02
Kosta Koufos	43	43	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.09	16	-1	17	14.3	13.7	0.56	16.8	16.3	0.54
Andre Iguodala	73	71	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.09	9	6	3	14.6	11.9	2.65	16.9	15.4	1.52
Corey Brewer	45	45	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.12	2	13	-11	14.0	13.9	0.10	17.6	15.5	2.11
Andre Miller	46	45	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.03	5	10	-5	13.9	14.0	-0.15	16.5	16.6	-0.02
Wilson Chandler	39	40	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.16	-11	26	-37	14.2	13.8	0.44	16.7	16.4	0.32
Timofey Mozgov	22	20	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.18	-12	27	-39	13.1	14.2	-1.11	16.2	16.6	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.49,0.47,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.55,0.6,0.5,0.44,0.4,0.34,0.4,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.72,0.84,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.78,0.81,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.95,0.96,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOH 79, CHI 84	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.59,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.8,0.79,0.7,0.81,0.78,0.7,0.78,0.81,0.91,0.93,0.96,1,1,1,0.99,0.97,1,1	94.6%
ATL 87, CHA 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.53,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.61,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.58,0.67,0.68,0.83,0.91,0.79,0.9,0.87,0.87,0.87,0.81,0.92,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%
MIN 83, SEA 92	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.5,0.47,0.44,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.62,0.71,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.82,0.74,0.78,0.79,0.79,0.91,0.97,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.4%