NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	69		Excitement	4.1 [1011]		MVP	Travis Outlaw (SAC): +4.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	85		Comeback	1.2 [1236]		LVP	Jimmer Fredette (SAC): -10.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Travis Outlaw	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.01	6	67%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.00	-0.03	3	33%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	5	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	3	33%	-0.01
John Salmons	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Thomas Robinson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	5	20%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	19	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	6	67%	-0.01
Marcus Thornton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	17%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	-0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	6	21%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Tyreke Evans	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.11	0.01	-0.02	10	36%	-0.01	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.01	0.03	12	35%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmer Fredette	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.13	-0.00	-0.02	4	0%	-0.05	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Allen	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	0.00	0.02	11	56%	0.05	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.01
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.01	14	53%	0.07	3	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Darrell Arthur	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	7	44%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.00	-0.02	1	25%	-0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	12	38%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	6	25%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Mike Conley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	0.01	0.05	16	53%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Rudy Gay	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.01	11	57%	0.02	5	-0.08	1	100%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	2.5	29.3	15.7	25.3	2.4	27.6	126.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +28.3%

MEM +1.9%

MEM +10.0%

MEM +6.5%

MEM +3.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	MEM	NBA	SAC	MEM	NBA
this game	16.0	15.9	15.4	77.5	92.4	104.1
season	15.0	16.5		104.7	102.9
opponent	15.5	15.2		99.1	109.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	16.0	18.2	15.0	14.5	16.0
MEM	16.7	13.1	16.3	17.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Johnson	19	18	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.08	-5	-11	6	15.5	16.1	-0.61	15.6	15.9	-0.32
Jimmer Fredette	22	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.16	3	-19	22	14.1	16.6	-2.42	16.8	15.5	1.25
Travis Outlaw	28	30	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.05	-1	-15	14	14.9	16.4	-1.50	16.9	15.4	1.53
Charles Hayes	15	15	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.02	-4	-12	8	16.3	15.9	0.45	15.5	15.9	-0.48
Marcus Thornton	34	34	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.01	-5	-11	6	17.2	15.2	2.02	16.5	15.5	0.95
Thomas Robinson	24	24	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.15	-11	-5	-6	18.1	15.2	2.91	15.2	16.1	-0.89
Aaron Brooks	12	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-9	2	18.6	15.5	3.04	12.8	16.4	-3.64
Francisco Garcia	12	14	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-9	2	18.6	15.5	3.04	12.8	16.4	-3.64
Isaiah Thomas	55	54	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	-4	-8	16.1	15.7	0.40	16.3	15.3	0.94
John Salmons	58	60	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.14	-4	-12	8	15.6	16.7	-1.11	16.7	14.4	2.29
Jason Thompson	39	41	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-5	-6	16.0	15.9	0.03	15.7	16.0	-0.25
DeMarcus Cousins	72	74	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.17	-5	-11	6	15.6	17.6	-2.09	15.8	16.1	-0.23
Tyreke Evans	55	58	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	-0.02	-11	-5	-6	15.2	17.2	-2.02	15.5	16.5	-0.95

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Allen	72	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	-0.08	19	-3	22	15.4	17.7	-2.34	15.6	17.3	-1.73
Rudy Gay	79	76	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.03	15	1	14	15.9	15.9	-0.06	15.6	18.1	-2.48
Marreese Speights	51	50	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.09	10	6	4	15.9	15.8	0.12	16.2	15.6	0.65
Mike Conley	73	72	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.04	10	6	4	15.5	17.4	-1.96	15.4	18.2	-2.75
Marc Gasol	72	69	0.29	0.21	0.09	-0.03	11	5	6	15.8	16.0	-0.23	15.4	17.7	-2.25
Darrell Arthur	47	45	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.11	5	11	-6	15.7	16.1	-0.43	16.9	15.0	1.89
Jerryd Bayless	37	35	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.06	10	6	4	17.3	14.9	2.43	16.6	15.5	1.11
Wayne Ellington	29	28	0.10	0.40	-0.29	0.10	0	16	-16	16.7	15.5	1.20	17.6	15.2	2.41

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.77,0.77,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.95,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.94,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, SAS 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.68,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.76,0.76,0.81,0.82,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.87,0.91,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
GSW 85, UTA 98	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.75,0.74,0.73,0.84,0.85,0.8,0.84,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.95,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.97,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.2%
GSW 97, SEA 109	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.57,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.85,0.86,0.86,0.9,0.91,0.87,0.91,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%