NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	97		Excitement	8.8 [147]		MVP	Draymond Green (GSW): +40.0%
Miami Heat	95		Comeback	6.0 [98]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -37.4%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Draymond Green	0.40	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.4	0.03	0.37	0.00	5	58%	0.40	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.19,0.19	0.12	0.07	-0.00	14	71%	0.21	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0.09	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.01	0.00	22	61%	0.15	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	8	40%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Charles Jenkins	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Festus Ezeli	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
David Lee	-0.12	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,-0.12	0.03	-0.14	0.02	18	55%	0.02	2	-0.14	4	100%	0.08
Stephen Curry	-0.37	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.28,-0.37,-0.37,-0.37	-0.12	-0.23	0.02	10	45%	-0.02	6	-0.36	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.33,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.17,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.01	23	61%	0.26	4	-0.11	5	100%	0.04
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.17,0.17,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.08	0.00	0.00	14	66%	0.22	2	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0	-0.00	0.04	-0.04	0.00	10	67%	0.05	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	4	25%	-0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.18	-0.18	-0.04	-0.15	-0.01	6	25%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.15,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.06	-0.16	0.01	11	52%	0.02	5	-0.25	5	80%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.6	27.3	16.4	26.6	2.6	31.6	130.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +45.0%

GSW +3.7%

MIA -2.0%

GSW +2.9%

GSW +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	MIA	NBA	GSW	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	15.9	15.4	103.2	100.0	104.1
season	14.6	15.7		104.6	110.2
opponent	15.9	15.3		102.4	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.9	13.7	14.3	15.8	14.6
MIA	15.1	14.5	17.0	17.0	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	75	76	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.31	11	-9	20	14.4	15.4	-0.94	15.9	15.7	0.21
Stephen Curry	82	83	0.62	-0.12	0.73	0.35	9	-7	16	14.2	17.7	-3.59	16.0	14.7	1.36
Klay Thompson	87	88	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.42	0	2	-2	14.4	17.4	-3.04	15.9	15.1	0.77
Jarrett Jack	61	62	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.41	-1	3	-4	14.6	14.7	-0.08	15.8	16.0	-0.18
Draymond Green	57	57	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.53	-9	11	-20	15.1	13.8	1.28	16.1	15.4	0.72
Festus Ezeli	30	30	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	-1	4	14.9	14.5	0.46	16.2	15.7	0.56
Harrison Barnes	34	34	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	-1	4	15.3	14.2	1.01	16.1	15.7	0.41
Carl Landry	36	37	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.01	0	2	-2	14.5	14.7	-0.19	15.1	16.3	-1.22
Charles Jenkins	8	8	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.09	-6	8	-14	16.7	14.4	2.33	12.4	16.2	-3.80

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	44	43	0.26	-0.76	1.02	0.08	6	-8	14	15.8	15.9	-0.02	15.0	14.3	0.71
Mike Miller	13	12	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.00	1	-3	4	13.4	16.2	-2.86	14.6	14.6	-0.04
Joel Anthony	20	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	-0.06	-1	-1	0	16.1	15.8	0.38	13.5	14.9	-1.41
Udonis Haslem	30	31	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.04	-4	2	-6	15.7	15.9	-0.22	15.0	14.4	0.57
Mario Chalmers	47	48	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.01	-6	4	-10	15.8	15.9	-0.09	14.2	15.1	-0.88
Ray Allen	55	54	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.45	5	-7	12	15.8	15.9	-0.08	14.9	14.2	0.77
Chris Bosh	75	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	-0.38	-1	-1	0	15.8	16.1	-0.38	14.9	13.5	1.41
LeBron James	82	82	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.44	-3	1	-4	16.2	13.4	2.86	14.6	14.6	0.04
Shane Battier	51	48	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.54	0	-2	2	15.8	15.9	-0.15	14.4	14.9	-0.54
Dwyane Wade	58	58	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.37	-7	5	-12	16.1	15.5	0.56	14.4	15.0	-0.58

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.48,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.38,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.26,0.34,0.33,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.54,0.61,0.78,0.67,0.58,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 84, BOS 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.45,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.4,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.48,0.42,0.3,0.41,0.6,0.52,0.72,0.67,0.74,0	92.0%
ATL 108, NYK 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.4,0.31,0.3,0.39,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.57,0.73,0.69,0.53,0.61,0.75,0.85,0.57,0.59,0	91.6%
UTA 99, LAC 94	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.59,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.53,0.55,0.55,0.64,0.65,0.7,0.64,0.62,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.56,0.59,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.59,0.48,0.48,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.59,0.53,0.75,0.79,0.68,0.59,0	91.6%