NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	91		Excitement	5.3 [741]		MVP	Andre Iguodala (DEN): +18.7%
Denver Nuggets	102		Comeback	2.5 [715]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -14.5%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Klay Thompson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.11	-0.02	0.00	12	67%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carl Landry	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.01	-0.00	11	63%	0.11	2	-0.03	8	87%	0.03
Charles Jenkins	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	80%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Andris Biedrins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Tyler	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kent Bazemore	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jarrett Jack	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	-0.00	16	50%	0.02	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Harrison Barnes	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	-0.01	-0.04	5	33%	-0.02	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Draymond Green	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.00	-0.02	0.04	19	50%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Festus Ezeli	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.02
Stephen Curry	-0.15	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.04	0.06	5	60%	-0.05	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.19	0.04	0.04	19	66%	0.19	0	0.00	6	67%	0.00
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	13	58%	0.13	4	-0.10	5	60%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	-0.02	3	75%	0.05	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.06	0.01	-0.04	10	41%	0.00	2	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	43%	-0.01	1	-0.02	5	20%	-0.06
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	20	43%	-0.02	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	7	33%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.8	1.8	38.4	0.5	27.4	2.4	26.4	125.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +27.7%

DEN +1.1%

DEN +19.9%

DEN +2.1%

GSW -0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	DEN	NBA	GSW	DEN	NBA
this game	14.6	16.5	15.4	97.8	110.9	104.1
season	14.6	14.4		104.6	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.0	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	13.1	16.5	15.6	13.2	14.6
DEN	16.9	15.5	15.0	18.7	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kent Bazemore	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	7.5	14.8	-7.27	24.0	16.5	7.55
Jeremy Tyler	2	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.00	0	-11	11	7.5	14.8	-7.27	24.0	16.5	7.55
Andris Biedrins	22	23	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.07	0	-11	11	14.5	14.6	-0.15	16.7	16.5	0.28
Charles Jenkins	22	21	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.13	2	-13	15	13.6	14.9	-1.34	19.8	15.6	4.25
Draymond Green	42	41	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	-0.08	0	-11	11	14.8	14.5	0.27	15.4	17.5	-2.10
Carl Landry	55	54	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	-0.18	0	-11	11	15.4	13.5	1.84	17.5	15.1	2.43
Harrison Barnes	29	29	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.19	0	-11	11	14.0	14.9	-0.84	18.1	15.8	2.29
Festus Ezeli	37	36	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	-0.08	-5	-6	1	13.2	15.6	-2.41	16.2	16.7	-0.46
Jarrett Jack	65	66	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.18	-2	-9	7	14.9	13.9	1.08	16.4	16.8	-0.38
Klay Thompson	71	70	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	0.05	-15	4	-19	14.8	14.1	0.68	15.6	19.5	-3.96
David Lee	69	69	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.03	-17	6	-23	15.0	13.5	1.50	15.6	19.2	-3.58
Stephen Curry	49	49	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.01	-18	7	-25	15.0	14.2	0.73	16.6	16.4	0.21

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	77	76	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.15	13	-2	15	15.9	19.6	-3.66	14.5	15.2	-0.76
Kenneth Faried	70	70	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.05	14	-3	17	15.9	18.4	-2.47	15.0	13.6	1.39
Danilo Gallinari	67	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.23	6	5	1	17.1	15.0	2.05	14.5	14.9	-0.43
Ty Lawson	71	73	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.13	8	3	5	16.4	16.9	-0.48	14.4	15.2	-0.81
Kosta Koufos	37	39	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.08	7	4	3	15.3	17.4	-2.11	14.8	14.4	0.40
Corey Brewer	41	43	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	5	1	16.1	16.8	-0.70	14.0	15.1	-1.10
Andre Miller	41	40	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	9	-7	18.3	15.1	3.18	14.8	14.5	0.28
JaVale McGee	48	48	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.06	2	9	-7	17.1	16.0	1.11	14.7	14.5	0.15
Jordan Hamilton	8	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.59	0.04	-3	14	-17	19.4	16.3	3.11	16.1	14.5	1.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.55,0.61,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.89,0.86,0.89,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 69, CLE 90	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.41,0.57,0.7,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.7,0.75,0.78,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
OKC 99, TOR 111	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.36,0.42,0.42,0.41,0.3,0.38,0.43,0.54,0.67,0.61,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.7,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1	94.5%
CHH 86, PHI 100	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.41,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.55,0.55,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.85,0.87,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%