NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	75		Excitement	6.0 [586]		MVP	Spencer Hawes (PHI): +12.7%
Philadelphia 76ers	84		Comeback	1.2 [758]		LVP	Corey Brewer (DEN): -16.8%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Evan Fournier	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.05	0.01	0.02	-0.02	4	62%	0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ty Lawson	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.00	0.03	-0.01	17	44%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jordan Hamilton	-0.00	0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	3	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
JaVale McGee	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	5	40%	0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.12	-0.01	-0.04	15	33%	-0.03	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Wilson Chandler	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	8	28%	-0.07	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Andre Iguodala	-0.15	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.03	0.01	13	38%	-0.05	4	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.10	-0.06	0.01	9	44%	-0.03	5	-0.14	0	0%	0.00

Philadelphia 76ers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Spencer Hawes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.04	0.07	-0.02	11	67%	0.19	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.02
Thaddeus Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.00	12	48%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	33%	-0.03
Dorell Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.01	-0.02	12	47%	0.05	2	-0.05	6	100%	0.03
Damien Wilkins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	13	38%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Maalik Wayns	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Nick Young	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	9	45%	0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Jrue Holiday	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.08	0.03	0.01	16	38%	0.05	3	-0.10	5	80%	0.01
Lavoy Allen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Evan Turner	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	7	33%	-0.01	3	-0.05	1	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	30.0	16.7	24.6	2.4	29.2	128.8
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

PHI +13.3%

PHI +26.5%

DEN -5.7%

PHI +13.7%

PHI +2.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	PHI	NBA	DEN	PHI	NBA
this game	14.7	15.7	15.4	78.9	88.4	104.1
season	14.4	15.5		108.4	100.5
opponent	15.7	15.4		104.2	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	15.0	17.2	14.1	12.2	14.7
PHI	12.7	13.3	19.3	17.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Evan Fournier	21	21	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.18	5	-14	19	10.9	15.7	-4.82	17.8	15.1	2.71
Corey Brewer	53	55	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.15	0	-9	9	15.0	14.2	0.80	15.4	16.0	-0.60
Kenneth Faried	34	34	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.04	-7	-2	-5	16.3	13.7	2.59	14.3	16.4	-2.07
Kosta Koufos	59	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-9	9	14.9	14.3	0.58	15.9	15.3	0.56
Jordan Hamilton	26	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.05	-5	-4	-1	14.5	14.7	-0.22	16.1	15.5	0.64
Ty Lawson	71	71	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.16	-3	-6	3	14.7	14.7	-0.00	16.1	14.4	1.71
Andre Miller	67	67	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.27	0	-9	9	14.0	16.3	-2.35	15.1	17.1	-2.01
Wilson Chandler	40	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	-0.10	-7	-2	-5	15.2	14.3	0.97	15.7	15.6	0.04
JaVale McGee	36	36	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	0	-9	14.3	14.9	-0.58	15.3	15.9	-0.56
Andre Iguodala	68	66	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.08	-19	10	-29	15.1	13.5	1.65	15.8	15.3	0.54

Philadelphia 76ers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Thaddeus Young	72	72	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-9	27	15.5	16.0	-0.46	14.7	14.5	0.24
Evan Turner	57	56	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.24	10	-1	11	16.0	15.2	0.82	14.4	15.1	-0.75
Jason Richardson	71	69	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.29	7	2	5	15.9	15.0	0.82	15.2	13.2	2.03
Spencer Hawes	62	61	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.16	10	-1	11	14.7	17.4	-2.67	14.8	14.4	0.44
Jrue Holiday	80	82	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.21	8	1	7	16.1	13.0	3.15	14.7	14.6	0.06
Lavoy Allen	33	34	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	10	-11	17.4	14.7	2.67	14.4	14.8	-0.44
Damien Wilkins	0	1	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.02	0	9	-9	0.0	15.7	-15.65	20.0	14.6	5.39
Maalik Wayns	6	6	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.01	0	9	-9	13.5	15.8	-2.30	12.8	14.8	-1.95
Dorell Wright	55	55	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	10	-11	15.2	16.3	-1.16	14.8	14.5	0.33
Nick Young	39	39	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.13	-6	15	-21	15.0	16.1	-1.11	13.9	15.2	-1.21

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.55,0.59,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.56,0.73,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.76,0.82,0.87,0.9,0.82,0.77,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.86,0.93,0.73,0.86,0.93,0.99,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 105, MEM 118	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.6,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.56,0.57,0.63,0.68,0.63,0.75,0.76,0.9,0.89,0.86,0.82,0.85,0.84,0.75,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.98,0.98,0.92,0.87,0.93,1,1,1,1	94.2%
TOR 96, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.54,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.64,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.86,0.9,0.9,0.85,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.86,0.99,0.99,0.98,1	94.1%
ORL 98, IND 111	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.5,0.51,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.69,0.72,0.82,0.76,0.79,0.84,0.8,0.78,0.88,0.81,0.91,0.94,0.91,0.96,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.87,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	94.1%