NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	4.5 [925]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +23.0%
Miami Heat	120		Comeback	1.3 [1088]		LVP	Jeff Green (BOS): -7.6%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0.09	0,0,0,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.12	-0.01	0.02	15	59%	0.09	0	0.00	9	100%	0.05
Courtney Lee	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.02	6	92%	0.09	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Leandro Barbosa	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.15	0.00	0.10	8	89%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Brandon Bass	0.04	0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	11	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Jared Sullinger	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.01	14	62%	0.08	4	-0.09	4	50%	0.00
Jason Terry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	7	44%	0.00	3	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.00	-0.00	8	53%	0.02	5	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Jeff Green	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	4	25%	-0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.06	0.01	16	70%	0.23	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.16	0.02	0.02	7	86%	0.16	0	0.00	8	87%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.04	0.00	15	56%	0.11	1	-0.03	4	75%	0.00
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	0.01	0.02	5	83%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.05	-0.00	0.01	4	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	22	53%	0.12	4	-0.09	11	82%	0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	75%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	7	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Mike Miller	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	3.5	37.4	18.6	27.2	3.7	36.5	150.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +46.4%

BOS -5.1%

MIA +15.0%

BOS -1.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.4	15.1	15.4	110.3	122.4	104.1
season	14.9	15.7		101.2	110.2
opponent	15.9	16.2		102.4	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	13.3	17.5	12.7	14.4
MIA	14.2	12.0	16.8	18.7	15.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Leandro Barbosa	34	33	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.11	4	-17	21	11.9	15.7	-3.86	16.5	14.5	1.98
Jared Sullinger	19	19	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-10	7	12.4	14.9	-2.45	12.8	15.7	-2.85
Courtney Lee	46	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.02	-7	-6	-1	14.4	14.4	0.04	16.2	14.2	2.02
Brandon Bass	56	58	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.07	-8	-5	-3	15.6	12.8	2.83	14.6	16.0	-1.41
Jason Terry	52	52	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.02	-10	-3	-7	14.3	14.5	-0.22	14.5	15.9	-1.45
Jeff Green	48	47	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.11	-7	-6	-1	14.6	14.1	0.50	14.5	15.7	-1.21
Kevin Garnett	67	67	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.23	-4	-9	5	14.0	15.2	-1.17	14.3	16.9	-2.57
Rajon Rondo	85	86	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	0	-13	14.7	12.2	2.44	15.9	10.0	5.86
Paul Pierce	78	81	-0.50	-0.00	-0.49	0.00	-17	4	-21	15.0	11.9	3.04	15.7	12.6	3.02

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.01	15	-2	17	15.5	14.2	1.32	15.2	12.3	2.85
LeBron James	59	58	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.07	12	1	11	14.4	16.3	-1.98	15.6	12.6	2.97
Mario Chalmers	70	70	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.04	11	2	9	16.3	12.3	4.00	14.8	13.3	1.47
Ray Allen	64	63	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.07	9	4	5	14.9	15.6	-0.64	13.7	15.7	-2.02
Shane Battier	57	57	0.30	0.20	0.10	-0.05	12	1	11	15.1	15.1	-0.01	15.1	13.4	1.65
Mike Miller	12	12	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.02	8	5	3	17.1	14.9	2.21	17.0	14.0	2.98
Rashard Lewis	41	40	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.17	1	12	-11	15.1	15.1	0.01	13.4	15.1	-1.65
Norris Cole	16	16	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.00	5	8	-3	9.2	16.3	-7.12	13.9	14.5	-0.62
Udonis Haslem	25	26	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.11	-2	15	-17	14.2	15.5	-1.32	12.3	15.2	-2.85
Dwyane Wade	73	72	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.19	-6	19	-25	15.9	13.0	2.82	13.3	17.4	-4.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.55,0.48,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.64,0.69,0.6,0.56,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.7,0.67,0.76,0.77,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.86,0.93,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.99,0.99,1,0.96,0.98,0.9,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 67, DET 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.62,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.6,0.63,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.74,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.77,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.84,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
UTA 91, SAS 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.67,0.75,0.76,0.71,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.2%
DAL 82, POR 91	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.61,0.56,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.75,0.74,0.74,0.78,0.76,0.84,0.84,0.91,0.9,0.88,0.9,0.87,0.94,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.95,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.1%