NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	66		Excitement	5.9 [502]		MVP	Sasha Pavlovic (BOS): +16.1%
Boston Celtics	78		Comeback	4.3 [474]		LVP	Juwan Howard (MIA): -22.7%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.02	0.00	7	79%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.01	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	-0.00	0.01	4	62%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	67%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.01
Joel Anthony	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.02	-0.06	10	35%	-0.01	3	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
Terrel Harris	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	-0.06	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.11	0.01	-0.04	10	40%	0.01	5	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	-0.12	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.05	0.02	10	60%	0.03	5	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.15	-0.02	0.01	11	26%	-0.08	4	-0.10	1	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.16,-0.22,-0.17,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23	-0.13	-0.10	-0.01	9	30%	-0.07	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.02

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Sasha Pavlovic	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.08	0.05	10	80%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.04	0.04	-0.03	11	50%	0.11	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Keyon Dooling	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	5	64%	0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	0.04	-0.00	8	50%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sean Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.04	0.02	0.00	5	38%	0.04	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.03
E'Twaun Moore	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	0.04	6	58%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	7	57%	0.04	6	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
JaJuan Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	0.00	9	33%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Hollins	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.11	-0.02	-0.01	3	0%	-0.10	1	-0.02	4	0%	-0.07
Avery Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	10	33%	-0.06	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	3.4	29.4	19.3	27.6	3.8	29.3	139.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +16.1%

BOS +8.4%

MIA -3.8%

BOS +32.2%

MIA -2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	BOS	NBA	MIA	BOS	NBA
this game	17.3	14.5	15.6	73.3	85.7	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		105.6	99.4
opponent	16.2	15.8		97.1	98.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.2	17.9	19.1	17.3	17.3
BOS	15.5	14.2	14.2	14.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Miller	47	46	0.12	-0.62	0.73	-0.00	4	-16	20	17.3	17.4	-0.14	14.0	15.0	-1.00
Dexter Pittman	48	51	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.07	4	-16	20	17.1	17.6	-0.47	14.3	14.7	-0.41
Shane Battier	37	36	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.01	1	-13	14	18.6	16.4	2.21	14.8	14.3	0.47
Mario Chalmers	51	53	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-14	16	18.0	16.5	1.51	14.2	14.8	-0.60
Udonis Haslem	44	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.00	-1	-11	10	18.0	16.7	1.33	14.3	14.6	-0.32
James Jones	50	52	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.11	-9	-3	-6	16.2	18.7	-2.48	14.5	14.5	0.01
Juwan Howard	40	42	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.21	-7	-5	-2	17.1	17.5	-0.35	14.8	14.3	0.50
Joel Anthony	40	38	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.07	-16	4	-20	17.6	17.2	0.41	14.9	14.2	0.69
Terrel Harris	43	45	-0.62	0.12	-0.73	-0.15	-16	4	-20	17.4	17.3	0.14	15.0	14.0	1.00
Norris Cole	50	49	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.08	-22	10	-32	16.4	18.5	-2.12	14.3	14.7	-0.32

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JaJuan Johnson	43	42	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.10	16	-4	20	15.2	13.9	1.31	16.9	17.7	-0.87
Sean Williams	38	37	0.56	-0.06	0.63	0.10	16	-4	20	14.4	14.6	-0.22	17.0	17.6	-0.54
Sasha Pavlovic	46	47	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.27	9	3	6	13.3	15.7	-2.41	16.6	18.2	-1.57
E'Twaun Moore	48	46	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.12	13	-1	14	13.9	15.2	-1.31	17.4	17.3	0.14
Marquis Daniels	55	54	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.04	15	-3	18	14.9	13.8	1.14	17.6	17.0	0.53
Keyon Dooling	35	34	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.01	5	7	-2	15.7	13.7	2.03	18.0	16.9	1.10
Avery Bradley	56	56	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	13	-14	14.4	14.7	-0.36	17.4	17.3	0.03
Brandon Bass	53	53	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	16	-20	14.6	14.4	0.22	17.6	17.0	0.54
Ryan Hollins	46	47	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	16	-20	14.1	14.9	-0.78	17.9	16.7	1.19
Paul Pierce	35	34	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	0.01	-5	17	-22	14.8	14.3	0.54	17.0	17.5	-0.51

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.42,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.28,0.22,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.32,0.34,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.43,0.62,0.72,0.69,0.76,0.82,0.89,0.95,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
ORL 88, BKN 101	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.31,0.37,0.42,0.37,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.42,0.39,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.42,0.37,0.28,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.33,0.44,0.5,0.38,0.34,0.48,0.68,0.64,0.76,0.9,0.95,0.99,1,1,1	94.0%
LAC 73, IND 86	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.35,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.25,0.23,0.26,0.25,0.19,0.24,0.21,0.29,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.56,0.34,0.34,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.6,0.73,0.89,0.95,0.97,1,1	93.4%
PHI 82, DET 86	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.49,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.35,0.42,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.33,0.29,0.32,0.28,0.27,0.21,0.18,0.22,0.25,0.3,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.69,0.8,0.83,0.75,0.79,0.94,0.98,1	93.2%