NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	88		Excitement	7.1 [323]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +24.1%
Miami Heat	97		Comeback	5.1 [331]		LVP	Udonis Haslem (MIA): -17.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.23,0.17,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.13,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.15	0.03	0.01	13	88%	0.30	3	-0.13	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0.10	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	0.00	11	56%	0.12	1	-0.03	3	67%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.01	0.05	-0.01	11	64%	0.15	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Goran Dragic	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	0.01	0.03	12	55%	0.03	4	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Earl Boykins	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.05	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.03
Luis Scola	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	0.01	10	55%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Marcus Morris	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	27%	-0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chase Budinger	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.06	-0.13	-0.02	7	36%	-0.05	2	-0.12	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.06,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.06	0.18	-0.01	21	62%	0.37	5	-0.12	10	90%	0.05
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.02	0.08	-0.04	12	46%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	92%	0.13	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Norris Cole	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.05	0.01	15	50%	0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.03
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.04	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	0.02	7	37%	-0.04	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Terrel Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	2	33%	-0.02	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	0.01	9	24%	-0.16	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.3	1.8	29.3	15.0	25.0	2.4	33.3	134.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU -20.3%

MIA +22.7%

MIA +24.3%

MIA +25.9%

HOU -2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	MIA	NBA	HOU	MIA	NBA
this game	13.9	16.8	15.6	93.6	103.2	102.8
season	15.4	15.5		103.5	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.5		98.8	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	13.4	15.1	13.8	13.3	13.9
MIA	16.0	16.8	16.8	17.4	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Camby	39	41	0.23	-0.73	0.96	-0.03	9	-18	27	14.9	13.1	1.80	16.6	16.9	-0.23
Earl Boykins	26	26	0.11	-0.61	0.72	0.08	1	-10	11	14.6	13.6	0.97	19.0	15.9	3.09
Luis Scola	40	42	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.03	2	-11	13	14.7	13.2	1.53	15.4	17.9	-2.55
Samuel Dalembert	19	18	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.06	-5	-4	-1	13.1	14.1	-1.03	18.0	16.5	1.53
Marcus Morris	9	8	-0.09	-0.41	0.31	0.08	-6	-3	-3	15.3	13.7	1.62	19.5	16.5	2.99
Chandler Parsons	76	76	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.33	1	-10	11	13.4	15.7	-2.29	16.5	17.9	-1.46
Courtney Lee	77	76	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.28	-4	-5	1	13.7	14.5	-0.73	16.8	16.5	0.33
Patrick Patterson	63	61	-0.61	0.11	-0.71	-0.20	-14	5	-19	13.6	14.4	-0.72	17.5	15.4	2.11
Goran Dragic	68	68	-0.61	0.11	-0.72	-0.31	-10	1	-11	13.6	14.6	-0.97	15.9	19.0	-3.09
Chase Budinger	53	54	-0.78	0.28	-1.06	-0.22	-19	10	-29	13.6	14.2	-0.66	16.6	17.0	-0.36

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	59	59	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.14	25	-16	41	16.2	17.8	-1.65	13.4	14.7	-1.39
Mike Miller	55	55	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.01	23	-14	37	15.2	18.9	-3.73	13.2	14.9	-1.71
LeBron James	72	70	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.20	12	-3	15	16.1	19.1	-3.04	14.1	13.2	0.84
James Jones	53	53	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	9	-9	17.5	15.9	1.62	14.4	13.2	1.24
Joel Anthony	52	52	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.16	15	-6	21	15.4	18.5	-3.05	14.2	13.4	0.80
Juwan Howard	21	22	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.15	9	0	9	17.0	16.7	0.24	13.2	14.1	-0.84
Udonis Haslem	43	43	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.43	-11	20	-31	18.5	15.3	3.13	13.5	14.2	-0.62
Terrel Harris	20	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	-0.07	0	9	-9	14.7	17.3	-2.62	13.1	14.1	-0.96
Norris Cole	69	71	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.22	-12	21	-33	18.4	12.2	6.27	14.5	12.1	2.36
Dexter Pittman	26	26	-0.36	0.86	-1.22	0.11	-16	25	-41	18.9	16.0	2.93	14.2	13.7	0.50

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.3,0.31,0.39,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.29,0.35,0.31,0.32,0.37,0.41,0.44,0.41,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.3,0.26,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.26,0.29,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.42,0.29,0.24,0.46,0.61,0.55,0.97,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 76, PHX 81	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.31,0.28,0.31,0.36,0.33,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.17,0.17,0.18,0.34,0.34,0.52,0.38,0.27,0.26,0.39,0.39,0.69,0.79,0.78,0.98,1	91.5%
TOR 91, LAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.33,0.33,0.27,0.28,0.24,0.31,0.36,0.44,0.4,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.48,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.33,0.39,0.69,0.75,0.84,1	90.7%
UTA 107, SAC 117	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.44,0.38,0.36,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.44,0.42,0.33,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.39,0.39,0.32,0.29,0.34,0.37,0.4,0.29,0.38,0.3,0.38,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.61,0.78,0.85,0.96,1	90.6%