NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	72		Excitement	5.6 [539]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +11.8%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	1.4 [774]		LVP	Luol Deng (CHI): -20.7%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Taj Gibson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09	0.05	0.04	-0.01	6	69%	0.12	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Joakim Noah	0.08	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.03	0.02	5	94%	0.16	3	-0.08	6	83%	0.05
Richard Hamilton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	0.01	6	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.01
Kyle Korver	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.03
Ronnie Brewer	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	21%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Lucas III	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.06,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	16	44%	-0.01	2	-0.07	4	100%	0.02
CJ Watson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.09	-0.03	0.00	3	25%	-0.03	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Boozer	-0.13	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.06	0.02	11	42%	-0.05	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Luol Deng	-0.21	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.10	-0.10	0.01	15	32%	-0.17	1	-0.04	4	25%	-0.05

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.10	0.05	0.04	18	56%	0.15	1	-0.03	12	83%	0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	-0.00	0.08	-0.01	16	47%	0.11	1	-0.03	6	67%	-0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.01	-0.01	2	75%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.03	-0.02	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	6	25%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	9	33%	-0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	16	46%	0.01	3	-0.09	3	33%	-0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	3.4	33.9	18.7	39.5	3.3	30.3	155.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +41.5%

CHI -5.8%

MIA +12.2%

MIA +4.1%

CHI -2.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	MIA	NBA	CHI	MIA	NBA
this game	16.7	16.4	15.6	82.8	95.4	102.8
season	16.0	15.5		104.7	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.9		98.8	97.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	16.9	18.3	15.1	16.6	16.7
MIA	16.6	15.3	16.2	17.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Omer Asik	28	26	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	0.02	-3	-8	5	16.7	16.7	0.09	14.7	17.2	-2.51
Ronnie Brewer	24	23	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-8	5	16.8	16.6	0.20	15.7	16.7	-1.04
Kyle Korver	30	28	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.02	-3	-8	5	18.0	16.0	2.05	15.7	16.7	-0.98
Taj Gibson	49	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-8	5	16.7	16.7	-0.08	15.6	17.3	-1.75
John Lucas III	51	51	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.18	1	-12	13	16.6	16.7	-0.10	16.7	16.0	0.71
CJ Watson	36	36	-0.35	-0.15	-0.19	0.00	-12	1	-13	16.7	16.6	0.10	16.0	16.7	-0.71
Luol Deng	70	72	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.21	-5	-6	1	16.4	17.8	-1.41	16.9	14.1	2.76
Carlos Boozer	38	41	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.15	-8	-3	-5	16.7	16.7	0.08	17.3	15.6	1.75
Richard Hamilton	50	51	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.11	-11	0	-11	16.2	17.4	-1.15	16.5	16.4	0.09
Joakim Noah	59	61	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.20	-8	-3	-5	16.7	16.7	-0.09	17.2	14.7	2.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Chalmers	64	64	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.18	12	-1	13	16.0	17.4	-1.39	16.4	17.5	-1.07
Dwyane Wade	60	59	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.17	12	-1	13	15.6	18.3	-2.68	18.0	13.9	4.18
Udonis Haslem	65	64	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.19	10	1	9	17.0	14.7	2.32	16.2	18.0	-1.78
LeBron James	64	65	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.02	11	0	11	16.7	15.7	1.04	15.8	19.3	-3.46
Shane Battier	41	41	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.10	6	5	1	16.5	16.3	0.19	16.9	16.5	0.45
Joel Anthony	57	58	0.27	0.23	0.05	0.13	5	6	-1	16.9	15.6	1.29	15.9	18.2	-2.22
Dexter Pittman	30	29	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.05	6	5	1	15.6	16.9	-1.29	18.2	15.9	2.22
James Jones	5	5	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.01	1	10	-9	11.0	16.7	-5.74	24.0	16.2	7.76
Norris Cole	22	22	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.00	-1	12	-13	17.4	16.1	1.33	17.9	16.3	1.63
Mike Miller	27	28	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	18	-25	17.1	16.1	1.01	15.0	17.5	-2.49

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.63,0.69,0.61,0.73,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.76,0.85,0.74,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.77,0.87,0.91,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
TOR 101, DEN 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1	94.3%
TOR 89, CHI 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.53,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.59,0.62,0.58,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.52,0.56,0.51,0.46,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.74,0.58,0.66,0.62,0.76,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.97,1,1	94.2%
NJN 101, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	94.0%