NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	101		Excitement	5.6 [717]		MVP	Carmelo Anthony (DEN): +27.3%
Denver Nuggets	107		Comeback	1.8 [874]		LVP	Morris Peterson (TOR): -12.4%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Pape Sow	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	3	82%	0.12	1	-0.04	5	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.02	14	53%	0.03	0	0.00	6	100%	0.02
Mike James	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	0.09	-0.04	0.05	17	65%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	11	55%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Eric Williams	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	18	50%	-0.01	2	-0.03	6	83%	0.02
Jose Calderon	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	0.00	2	37%	0.00	2	-0.06	4	75%	0.01
Matt Bonner	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.02	-0.04	0.04	9	50%	-0.05	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.08	-0.04	-0.00	9	17%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.31	0.07	0.10	16	84%	0.29	1	-0.02	12	83%	0.01
Kenyon Martin	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.01	-0.00	18	57%	0.11	2	-0.04	8	87%	0.02
Earl Boykins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.04	0.03	14	48%	0.05	0	0.00	5	100%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	-0.00	-0.00	3	73%	0.07	2	-0.05	5	80%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.01	-0.06	4	40%	0.03	3	-0.03	2	100%	0.02
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.00	2	-0.06	3	0%	-0.04
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	9	35%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Eduardo Najera	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.7	2.5	30.2	16.4	25.5	1.7	36.2	135.3
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +34.9%

DEN +8.4%

DEN +9.2%

TOR -2.2%

TOR -0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	DEN	NBA	TOR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.5	13.2	15.6	103.1	111.5	104.4
season	15.6	14.4		107.3	103.5
opponent	15.9	15.4		103.5	110.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	16.8	18.0	16.8	14.7	16.5
DEN	13.8	12.0	13.2	13.6	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Pape Sow	42	40	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.23	12	-18	30	14.9	17.7	-2.75	14.3	12.4	1.92
Jose Calderon	27	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.11	3	-9	12	15.2	17.0	-1.76	15.7	12.2	3.43
Matt Bonner	65	65	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.31	9	-15	24	15.2	19.0	-3.81	13.2	13.1	0.14
Charlie Villanueva	43	43	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-5	4	15.2	17.5	-2.38	15.5	11.3	4.22
Eric Williams	29	28	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	0.08	-10	4	-14	19.3	15.3	4.04	11.7	13.8	-2.09
Jalen Rose	78	77	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.27	-3	-3	0	16.6	16.2	0.31	13.3	12.7	0.59
Morris Peterson	56	54	-0.61	0.11	-0.73	-0.09	-18	12	-30	18.0	14.5	3.58	12.3	14.2	-1.88
Chris Bosh	77	75	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.37	-9	3	-12	17.1	14.5	2.58	12.4	15.9	-3.52
Mike James	73	72	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.26	-13	7	-20	16.8	15.5	1.37	12.1	16.4	-4.35

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Elson	53	56	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.21	12	-6	18	13.3	13.0	0.33	17.0	15.8	1.17
Kenyon Martin	80	82	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.29	6	0	6	12.8	14.8	-1.99	17.0	14.0	2.99
Andre Miller	82	82	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	-1	8	12.6	16.1	-3.50	17.0	13.9	3.14
Carmelo Anthony	76	79	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.23	5	1	4	12.3	16.5	-4.29	16.5	16.5	-0.03
Earl Watson	45	46	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.04	12	-6	18	11.3	14.8	-3.56	18.7	14.5	4.22
Earl Boykins	48	50	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.36	-6	12	-18	15.7	10.6	5.10	14.9	18.2	-3.31
Greg Buckner	37	37	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.16	0	6	-6	15.1	11.9	3.18	14.8	17.5	-2.76
Linas Kleiza	17	17	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	6	-6	14.1	13.0	1.10	16.6	16.5	0.18
Eduardo Najera	42	41	-0.07	0.57	-0.63	0.11	-6	12	-18	13.2	13.1	0.15	14.8	17.7	-2.96

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.48,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.77,0.78,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.66,0.7,0.71,0.8,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 73, CHA 94	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.47,0.46,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.6,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.65,0.72,0.65,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.74,0.74,0.79,0.91,0.95,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.6%
NJN 101, LAL 113	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.52,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.58,0.54,0.57,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.67,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.75,0.73,0.74,0.75,0.81,0.84,0.78,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.9,0.93,0.95,1,1,1	94.4%
MEM 100, DAL 104	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.47,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.69,0.72,0.77,0.78,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.78,0.74,0.75,0.86,0.93,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.99,0.99,0.93,1	94.3%