NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	86		Excitement	6.6 [385]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +19.4%
Chicago Bulls	93		Comeback	4.8 [473]		LVP	Kevin Garnett (BOS): -17.9%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.04	0.05	-0.01	12	54%	0.10	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Ray Allen	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	10	61%	0.08	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.02
Greg Stiemsma	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.00	1	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Ryan Hollins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Avery Bradley	0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	8	56%	0.09	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04	-0.05	0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.03	4	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	-0.07	0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07	0.02	-0.08	0.01	21	47%	-0.01	1	-0.06	5	60%	-0.02
Kevin Garnett	-0.18	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.00	16	35%	-0.05	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.12	-0.03	21	52%	0.20	1	-0.01	8	100%	0.05
Joakim Noah	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.14	0.04	0.04	6	89%	0.17	1	-0.03	7	100%	0.03
John Lucas III	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	4	62%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Kyle Korver	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.04	0.00	3	50%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmy Butler	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	11	39%	-0.02	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.03
Omer Asik	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.05	-0.04	0.01	12	43%	-0.06	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.05	-0.04	16	42%	-0.01	6	-0.14	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.0	1.8	37.0	18.8	29.0	2.0	42.2	155.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +12.2%

CHI +1.7%

CHI +17.3%

CHI +18.6%

CHI +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	CHI	NBA	BOS	CHI	NBA
this game	15.7	16.3	15.6	95.6	103.3	102.8
season	15.5	16.0		99.4	104.7
opponent	15.9	16.2		97.0	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	15.4	15.2	17.2	14.9	15.7
CHI	14.6	17.7	15.5	17.8	16.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Bass	65	66	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.15	4	-11	15	15.4	16.3	-0.90	15.4	18.8	-3.41
Greg Stiemsma	20	20	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	0.06	-3	-4	1	16.6	15.4	1.20	15.0	16.7	-1.65
Sasha Pavlovic	11	11	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.09	1	-8	9	18.6	15.3	3.38	18.5	16.0	2.42
Keyon Dooling	4	4	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.00	-4	-3	-1	20.2	15.5	4.80	14.7	16.4	-1.66
Ryan Hollins	21	22	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.15	0	-7	7	16.7	15.4	1.30	19.3	15.4	3.95
Ray Allen	57	57	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.24	-1	-6	5	15.9	15.2	0.72	16.7	15.7	0.96
Rajon Rondo	73	72	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.25	-1	-6	5	14.9	19.1	-4.18	15.9	18.1	-2.22
Paul Pierce	77	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.20	-6	-1	-5	15.2	18.7	-3.54	15.8	19.3	-3.48
Avery Bradley	49	49	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.12	-10	3	-13	16.1	15.1	1.05	17.0	15.5	1.51
Kevin Garnett	73	72	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.33	-15	8	-23	15.5	16.6	-1.14	16.6	15.2	1.39

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	79	78	0.52	-0.01	0.53	0.31	7	0	7	15.7	20.7	-5.01	15.7	15.3	0.38
CJ Watson	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.22	5	2	3	15.8	19.0	-3.20	15.0	19.1	-4.16
Joakim Noah	66	67	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.14	6	1	5	15.8	17.8	-2.05	15.2	17.0	-1.73
Carlos Boozer	64	66	0.31	0.19	0.12	0.02	10	-3	13	15.7	18.0	-2.34	15.3	16.6	-1.25
Ronnie Brewer	37	35	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	8	-9	17.9	15.2	2.65	17.0	14.8	2.18
Omer Asik	24	23	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.15	1	6	-5	17.8	15.8	2.05	17.0	15.2	1.73
Taj Gibson	26	23	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.26	-3	10	-13	18.0	15.7	2.34	17.0	15.2	1.73
Richard Hamilton	38	38	0.17	0.33	-0.15	-0.03	7	0	7	16.1	16.5	-0.49	15.9	15.5	0.44
John Lucas III	15	15	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.07	2	5	-3	19.0	15.8	3.20	19.1	15.0	4.16
Kyle Korver	26	29	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	6	-5	16.4	16.3	0.07	13.6	16.7	-3.07
Jimmy Butler	0	1	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.01	0	7	-7	0.0	16.3	-16.33	8.0	15.8	-7.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.4,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.47,0.42,0.42,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.44,0.34,0.36,0.36,0.25,0.2,0.26,0.37,0.31,0.24,0.42,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.63,0.52,0.44,0.54,0.57,0.67,0.57,0.73,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.95,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 89, ATL 96	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.39,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.31,0.39,0.35,0.39,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.68,0.5,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.73,0.86,0.95,1,0.99,1	93.4%
IND 86, MIA 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.37,0.4,0.47,0.51,0.43,0.47,0.46,0.4,0.33,0.35,0.34,0.44,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.33,0.33,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.48,0.4,0.38,0.38,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.62,0.71,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.73,0.8,0.84,0.95,0.99,1	93.0%
BOS 88, MIA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.27,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.99,1,1,1	92.8%