NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	88		Excitement	6.1 [471]		MVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): +31.6%
Miami Heat	101		Comeback	3.2 [585]		LVP	Mickael Pietrus (BOS): -6.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Bass	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.01	0.01	8	80%	0.14	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Ray Allen	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	11	62%	0.10	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Hollins	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.07,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.06,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	22	48%	0.11	3	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01
Sasha Pavlovic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
E'Twaun Moore	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Stiemsma	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Paul Pierce	-0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.04	-0.03	18	46%	0.06	2	-0.09	5	60%	-0.01
Kevin Garnett	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	0.00	0.01	12	54%	0.04	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Mickael Pietrus	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.15	0.17	-0.00	10	95%	0.36	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.03,0.09,0.14,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.13	-0.03	21	53%	0.27	3	-0.08	17	71%	-0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.03	0.00	6	75%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.06	-0.00	0.03	9	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.01	4	70%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.03	0.02	17	55%	0.07	4	-0.09	8	87%	-0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.6	3.8	33.4	17.5	27.5	3.5	39.3	153.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +36.7%

MIA +1.8%

MIA +1.2%

MIA +10.5%

BOS -0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	15.7	17.8	15.6	102.3	117.4	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		99.4	105.6
opponent	15.8	16.2		98.8	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	16.2	16.6	15.4	14.7	15.7
MIA	17.3	18.5	15.2	20.6	17.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	10	10	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.02	2	-15	17	18.0	15.4	2.59	20.7	17.4	3.31
Mickael Pietrus	38	37	0.07	-0.57	0.65	0.04	1	-14	15	16.7	14.9	1.75	18.5	17.2	1.29
Ryan Hollins	16	14	0.04	-0.54	0.57	0.01	1	-14	15	17.2	15.4	1.89	19.3	17.5	1.80
Sasha Pavlovic	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	7.0	15.8	-8.81	21.0	17.7	3.26
Marquis Daniels	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	7.0	15.8	-8.81	21.0	17.7	3.26
E'Twaun Moore	1	1	0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.00	0	-13	13	7.0	15.8	-8.81	21.0	17.7	3.26
Greg Stiemsma	5	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.09	-7	-6	-1	12.0	15.9	-3.94	12.4	18.1	-5.71
Ray Allen	71	71	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.10	-9	-4	-5	15.1	18.7	-3.66	17.4	19.7	-2.29
Rajon Rondo	79	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.12	-12	-1	-11	15.7	15.9	-0.16	17.3	23.3	-5.99
Brandon Bass	72	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.13	-12	-1	-11	15.9	14.8	1.10	16.7	23.6	-6.88
Kevin Garnett	60	61	-0.62	0.12	-0.74	-0.21	-14	1	-15	16.0	15.1	0.91	19.0	14.9	4.09
Paul Pierce	76	77	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	2	-17	15.4	18.0	-2.59	17.9	16.7	1.24

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	80	78	0.60	-0.10	0.69	0.10	17	-4	21	17.9	16.5	1.38	15.3	19.7	-4.46
Udonis Haslem	66	66	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.17	14	-1	15	18.2	16.4	1.80	16.3	13.7	2.62
LeBron James	85	85	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.12	13	0	13	17.7	21.0	-3.26	15.8	7.0	8.81
Chris Bosh	55	54	0.48	0.02	0.47	-0.02	17	-4	21	18.6	16.4	2.23	15.4	16.2	-0.76
Shane Battier	71	72	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.21	2	11	-9	17.5	19.3	-1.80	15.1	18.9	-3.76
Mario Chalmers	58	58	0.08	0.42	-0.33	0.08	0	13	-13	16.5	20.5	-3.98	16.4	14.2	2.27
Mike Miller	7	8	0.07	0.43	-0.37	-0.08	5	8	-3	14.4	18.1	-3.65	14.9	15.8	-0.92
Juwan Howard	1	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	13	-13	21.0	17.7	3.26	7.0	15.8	-8.81
James Jones	5	5	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	14	-15	25.4	17.3	8.09	16.4	15.7	0.73
Norris Cole	2	3	-0.06	0.56	-0.61	0.00	-2	15	-17	19.5	17.7	1.76	19.7	15.6	4.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.5,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.39,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.44,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.41,0.31,0.24,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.34,0.37,0.27,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.47,0.74,0.76,0.83,0.85,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
VAN 75, MIN 89	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.44,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.34,0.3,0.39,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.63,0.75,0.8,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.97,0.99,1	93.5%
ATL 100, WAS 104	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.4,0.38,0.39,0.32,0.28,0.34,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.49,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.29,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.33,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.35,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.62,0.48,0.42,0.37,0.59,0.81,0.93,0.93,0.99,0.93,0.92,1	93.2%
MIL 104, SAC 111	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.36,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.38,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.64,0.76,0.78,0.89,0.98,0.99,1,1	93.1%