NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	112		Excitement	4.5 [731]		MVP	Mike Dunleavy (MIL): +8.6%
Washington Wizards	98		Comeback	1.5 [835]		LVP	John Wall (WAS): -8.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	10	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Ekpe Udoh	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	10	60%	0.09	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.01	12	57%	0.07	2	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Shaun Livingston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.01	0.03	6	83%	0.04	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.01	6	62%	0.06	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Brandon Jennings	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.00	17	49%	0.05	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
Larry Sanders	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	2	50%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.00	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.02	-0.00	11	61%	0.10	5	-0.10	6	83%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	44%	-0.02	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.03

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.10	-0.00	0.04	17	61%	0.08	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.01
Jan Vesely	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.00	9	70%	0.10	3	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Cartier Martin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	8	44%	0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.05	0.02	0.06	9	58%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.01
Brian Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	0.03	5	67%	0.01	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Kevin Seraphin	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	14	52%	0.01	3	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Shelvin Mack	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	0.00	1	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Chris Singleton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.01	0.02	5	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
John Wall	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	-0.01	-0.01	13	44%	-0.02	4	-0.07	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	1.8	29.5	15.5	26.2	1.8	25.2	124.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +34.6%

MIL +1.2%

MIL +13.4%

WAS -1.7%

MIL +2.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	13.8	15.0	15.6	112.0	98.0	102.8
season	14.6	15.0		103.8	99.5
opponent	15.7	15.6		104.6	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.7	15.3	13.2	14.2	13.8
WAS	15.0	16.7	13.4	15.2	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Brandon Jennings	73	73	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.07	12	2	10	13.6	14.3	-0.66	15.1	14.9	0.13
Mike Dunleavy	60	60	0.41	0.09	0.31	-0.09	17	-3	20	13.9	13.5	0.43	15.8	13.8	1.99
Ersan Ilyasova	73	74	0.36	0.14	0.22	-0.11	16	-2	18	13.5	14.5	-0.96	15.4	14.0	1.33
Luc Mbah a Moute	60	60	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.01	11	3	8	13.3	14.4	-1.07	14.9	15.2	-0.26
Monta Ellis	72	73	0.29	0.21	0.07	-0.12	14	0	14	13.2	15.3	-2.14	15.5	13.7	1.75
Shaun Livingston	48	48	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.02	9	5	4	14.7	12.9	1.75	14.9	15.1	-0.16
Ekpe Udoh	41	43	0.26	0.24	0.01	-0.21	16	-2	18	14.4	13.3	1.08	15.5	14.7	0.82
Drew Gooden	45	45	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.05	3	11	-8	13.1	14.3	-1.18	15.3	14.8	0.49
Larry Sanders	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	21	-28	15.6	13.6	1.93	9.5	15.4	-5.87
Jon Leuer	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	21	-28	15.6	13.6	1.93	9.5	15.4	-5.87
Tobias Harris	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	21	-28	15.6	13.6	1.93	9.5	15.4	-5.87
Jon Brockman	7	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	21	-28	15.6	13.6	1.93	9.5	15.4	-5.87

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cartier Martin	47	46	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.31	7	-21	28	14.9	15.2	-0.32	15.3	12.4	2.90
Brian Cook	26	27	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.18	1	-15	16	11.8	16.1	-4.34	14.7	13.4	1.27
Shelvin Mack	18	18	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-11	8	13.4	15.4	-1.92	13.1	13.9	-0.88
John Wall	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	-5	-4	15.6	13.3	2.27	13.8	13.7	0.09
Roger Mason Jr.	49	48	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.01	-9	-5	-4	15.0	15.0	0.04	14.7	12.9	1.75
Kevin Seraphin	68	67	-0.30	-0.20	-0.11	0.08	-13	-1	-12	16.3	12.2	4.07	13.5	14.4	-0.96
Jordan Crawford	71	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	0.12	-17	3	-20	15.3	14.4	0.85	13.2	15.3	-2.14
Chris Singleton	63	65	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.09	-10	-4	-6	14.3	16.2	-1.94	13.4	14.5	-1.17
Jan Vesely	82	81	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	0.04	-17	3	-20	15.2	14.1	1.11	13.3	15.8	-2.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.31,0.25,0.23,0.18,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.22,0.27,0.4,0.34,0.2,0.17,0.21,0.2,0.19,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.11,0.02,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, DAL 82	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0	95.5%
CHI 98, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%
TOR 108, GSW 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.45,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.28,0.29,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.18,0.19,0.15,0.16,0.13,0.18,0.2,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.08,0.1,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.3%