NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	3.9 [1028]		MVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): +10.8%
Dallas Mavericks	82		Comeback	1.1 [372]		LVP	Josh Howard (DAL): -13.2%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rasheed Wallace	0.11	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.00	-0.01	14	63%	0.13	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01
Nazr Mohammed	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	0.01	5	80%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.00	0.02	16	57%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.03	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	-0.00	-0.06	15	44%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.01
Dale Davis	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Dupree	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	9	44%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronald Murray	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.02	1	50%	0.01	3	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	-0.10	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1	-0.14	0.00	-0.04	14	39%	-0.03	5	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.12	0.02	0.06	15	72%	0.18	4	-0.10	10	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.09	0.00	0.03	6	75%	0.06	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
DeSagana Diop	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	1	100%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	60%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	13	59%	0.05	4	-0.05	3	67%	-0.00
Greg Buckner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Austin Croshere	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devean George	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.02	-0.01	6	23%	-0.03	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.11	-0.00	-0.03	6	7%	-0.07	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	0%	-0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Josh Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.03	0.01	16	35%	-0.08	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	2.7	34.0	19.8	26.0	3.5	34.3	143.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +29.5%

DAL -1.3%

DET +9.3%

DET +8.4%

DET +4.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	DAL	NBA	DET	DAL	NBA
this game	17.1	15.4	15.4	103.4	93.2	104.5
season	16.8	16.3		106.1	108.7
opponent	15.2	15.7		102.3	101.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	15.6	16.4	19.9	17.1	17.1
DAL	18.0	14.2	18.0	12.2	15.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Hamilton	74	71	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.05	15	-5	20	17.1	17.6	-0.55	15.6	14.5	1.06
Rasheed Wallace	62	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.00	16	-6	22	17.6	16.1	1.54	15.2	15.7	-0.51
Tayshaun Prince	75	72	0.46	0.04	0.41	0.10	12	-2	14	17.7	14.4	3.22	15.3	15.7	-0.44
Chauncey Billups	65	65	0.31	0.19	0.11	0.25	2	8	-6	18.3	14.0	4.31	15.0	16.6	-1.60
Nazr Mohammed	33	34	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.04	7	3	4	18.6	16.3	2.32	17.1	14.3	2.87
Ronald Murray	39	40	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.12	3	7	-4	15.4	18.5	-3.14	15.7	15.1	0.57
Dale Davis	26	24	0.20	0.30	-0.10	-0.04	8	2	6	16.5	17.4	-0.97	16.5	15.0	1.59
Antonio McDyess	44	44	0.13	0.37	-0.25	0.27	-5	15	-20	16.4	17.9	-1.50	13.7	17.1	-3.36
Carlos Delfino	26	27	0.01	0.49	-0.49	0.18	-6	16	-22	15.0	18.0	-3.03	15.7	15.2	0.51
Ronald Dupree	1	2	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.05	-2	12	-14	9.0	17.2	-8.24	11.5	15.5	-3.98

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Austin Croshere	9	9	-0.00	-0.50	0.49	-0.06	2	-12	14	7.3	16.3	-8.97	15.7	17.3	-1.65
Greg Buckner	14	16	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.10	2	-12	14	12.1	16.0	-3.86	16.6	17.3	-0.71
Devean George	31	30	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.12	0	-10	10	15.1	15.6	-0.50	15.7	17.9	-2.18
Anthony Johnson	22	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.00	-5	-5	0	17.2	14.8	2.39	16.8	17.3	-0.43
Erick Dampier	51	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.18	1	-11	12	15.2	15.6	-0.41	18.6	15.0	3.65
Devin Harris	52	52	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.12	-2	-8	6	14.5	16.6	-2.12	17.7	16.4	1.36
DeSagana Diop	23	22	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	2	-14	19.0	14.1	4.83	14.0	18.2	-4.18
Jerry Stackhouse	32	33	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	2	-14	17.7	14.1	3.57	15.3	18.2	-2.88
Jason Terry	69	68	-0.39	-0.11	-0.27	-0.21	-6	-4	-2	15.0	16.8	-1.86	17.4	16.3	1.13
Dirk Nowitzki	71	73	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.21	-7	-3	-4	15.1	16.5	-1.42	17.7	14.7	3.00
Josh Howard	66	66	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.11	-11	1	-12	15.9	13.8	2.09	17.7	15.5	2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.49,0.4,0.42,0.32,0.26,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.21,0.23,0.26,0.24,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.24,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.03,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 110, DEN 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.28,0.32,0.27,0.33,0.31,0.25,0.25,0.29,0.31,0.25,0.27,0.3,0.29,0.34,0.31,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.17,0.22,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.04,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0	96.5%
DAL 99, NJN 73	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.5,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.34,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.31,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.34,0.25,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.23,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.8%
CHI 98, DET 80	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.42,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.36,0.25,0.31,0.31,0.26,0.23,0.24,0.19,0.25,0.22,0.3,0.42,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.19,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	95.7%