NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	99		Excitement	6.6 [394]		MVP	Quincy Pondexter (MEM): +12.6%
Milwaukee Bucks	95		Comeback	2.5 [267]		LVP	Monta Ellis (MIL): -18.0%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Quincy Pondexter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.09	0.02	-0.01	6	83%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1	0.03	0.07	0.00	15	60%	0.20	4	-0.10	10	100%	0.08
Zach Randolph	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.01	-0.00	9	68%	0.12	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.04	0.02	-0.03	7	29%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.01	-0.04	18	42%	0.03	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00
Marreese Speights	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	12	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Jeremy Pargo	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	4	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	4	50%	-0.04
Marc Gasol	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	13	41%	-0.05	1	-0.02	6	50%	-0.04
Tony Allen	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	0.01	4	50%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1	0.10	0.10	0.03	0.02	19	57%	0.13	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	9	53%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.09	-0.04	0.04	11	59%	0.04	1	-0.03	12	67%	-0.04
Ekpe Udoh	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	40%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Larry Sanders	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shaun Livingston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	0.04	5	36%	-0.06	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	16	57%	0.06	5	-0.14	3	67%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.07	-0.03	12	29%	-0.10	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	20.2	2.6	31.2	15.6	28.3	2.4	38.5	138.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +25.5%

MIL -2.8%

MEM +29.4%

MIL -2.9%

MEM +0.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIL	NBA	MEM	MIL	NBA
this game	15.5	13.7	15.6	100.0	96.9	102.8
season	15.6	14.6		102.0	103.8
opponent	15.6	15.7		103.4	100.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	15.4	14.8	15.0	16.7	15.5
MIL	14.0	12.9	15.6	12.6	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marreese Speights	59	60	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.03	19	-15	34	15.1	16.1	-0.99	15.1	11.6	3.49
Rudy Gay	78	76	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	1	2	15.6	15.2	0.37	13.3	15.2	-1.91
Gilbert Arenas	34	35	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.04	13	-9	22	14.4	16.0	-1.63	14.7	13.2	1.46
Quincy Pondexter	43	42	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.31	0	4	-4	15.7	15.4	0.29	12.9	14.4	-1.43
O.J. Mayo	60	61	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.35	-4	8	-12	15.2	15.9	-0.77	13.0	15.1	-2.10
Marc Gasol	81	78	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.39	-6	10	-16	15.8	13.9	1.88	13.3	15.4	-2.08
Zach Randolph	49	50	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.10	3	1	2	15.2	15.7	-0.52	13.5	14.0	-0.54
Tony Allen	60	58	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.36	-7	11	-18	15.9	14.8	1.18	13.7	13.8	-0.14
Jeremy Pargo	31	30	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.05	-1	5	-6	16.2	15.2	1.03	15.4	13.0	2.43

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luc Mbah a Moute	52	54	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-9	14	13.6	14.0	-0.40	15.2	15.8	-0.58
Brandon Jennings	75	78	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.46	14	-18	32	13.3	15.3	-1.98	16.4	12.0	4.42
Ersan Ilyasova	88	89	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.39	9	-13	22	13.3	17.3	-3.96	15.8	12.9	2.88
Larry Sanders	7	7	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.03	-7	3	-10	17.0	13.5	3.51	14.7	15.5	-0.83
Drew Gooden	74	75	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.26	2	-6	8	13.7	13.9	-0.17	16.6	12.1	4.44
Monta Ellis	72	73	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.42	7	-11	18	13.2	15.2	-1.97	15.8	14.6	1.23
Shaun Livingston	15	15	-0.22	-0.28	0.05	0.10	-11	7	-18	15.5	13.4	2.03	14.0	15.7	-1.75
Ekpe Udoh	24	24	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	2	-8	13.9	13.7	0.17	12.1	16.6	-4.44
Beno Udrih	34	32	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	0.01	-18	14	-32	15.1	13.0	2.10	13.2	16.6	-3.44
Mike Dunleavy	49	48	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.22	-15	11	-26	14.2	13.3	0.92	15.4	15.6	-0.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.49,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.48,0.36,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.67,0.65,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.26,0.32,0.22,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.19,0.17,0.12,0.07,0.02,0,0,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 113, NOP 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.61,0.69,0.73,0.7,0.72,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.6,0.58,0.59,0.49,0.44,0.36,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.58,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.3,0.36,0.26,0.18,0.15,0.17,0.19,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.05,0,0	93.0%
MIL 118, CHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.57,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.7,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.39,0.46,0.46,0.5,0.54,0.62,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.23,0.21,0.19,0.22,0.06,0.14,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.02,0,0	92.9%
LAC 98, UTA 93	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.58,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.64,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.51,0.44,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.38,0.34,0.24,0.14,0.18,0.19,0.13,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.07,0.03,0.01,0,0.01,0.02,0	92.6%