NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	93		Excitement	7.4 [276]		MVP	Wesley Matthews (POR): +18.3%
Portland Trail Blazers	97		Comeback	3.4 [259]		LVP	Mike Conley (MEM): -16.9%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marc Gasol	0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.08	-0.01	13	65%	0.23	2	-0.06	8	75%	-0.01
Tony Allen	0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.2,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.16	0.09	0.09	0.02	9	77%	0.25	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Quincy Pondexter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dante Cunningham	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Marreese Speights	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Zach Randolph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.02	-0.05	0.01	10	55%	-0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
O.J. Mayo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	9	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15	-0.06	-0.08	0.01	10	45%	-0.07	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Conley	-0.17	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.17	-0.07	-0.11	-0.01	16	37%	-0.16	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.02

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.13	0.01	12	64%	0.24	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Nicolas Batum	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.12	0.03	0.00	15	75%	0.24	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.06	0.00	10	57%	0.14	3	-0.06	10	100%	0.10
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.07	0.01	13	45%	0.07	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Luke Babbitt	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	-0.00	1	150%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Craig Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	0	100%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jonny Flynn	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	0.01	-0.02	14	53%	0.09	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.03
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	2	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Joel Przybilla	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nolan Smith	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	20%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	1.8	30.5	15.5	25.3	1.8	41.2	140.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +26.3%

POR +33.8%

MEM -5.5%

MEM -9.2%

POR +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	POR	NBA	MEM	POR	NBA
this game	14.6	16.4	15.6	98.9	105.4	102.8
season	15.6	15.7		102.0	104.1
opponent	15.4	15.7		104.7	100.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MEM	14.5	14.2	15.7	14.3	14.6
POR	16.2	16.5	17.0	15.7	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	51	50	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.03	3	-7	10	14.8	14.4	0.39	17.5	15.0	2.59
Mike Conley	71	69	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.15	2	-6	8	14.9	13.8	1.06	16.5	15.9	0.59
Tony Allen	67	64	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.23	3	-7	10	14.8	14.3	0.46	16.8	15.3	1.54
Rudy Gay	59	59	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.19	1	-5	6	15.0	14.1	0.91	15.8	17.3	-1.43
Dante Cunningham	17	17	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.03	-5	1	-6	11.7	15.3	-3.57	15.5	16.5	-1.02
Quincy Pondexter	20	20	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.12	-5	1	-6	13.4	14.9	-1.50	15.3	16.6	-1.29
Marreese Speights	30	29	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.07	-9	5	-14	16.0	14.0	1.97	17.7	15.8	1.89
Marc Gasol	74	72	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.43	1	-5	6	14.8	14.0	0.73	16.1	17.4	-1.33
Gilbert Arenas	24	25	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.25	-6	2	-8	13.6	15.0	-1.40	14.7	17.0	-2.31
O.J. Mayo	57	55	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.39	-5	1	-6	14.5	14.9	-0.44	16.2	16.6	-0.44

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamal Crawford	54	58	0.73	-0.23	0.95	0.37	12	-8	20	15.7	17.3	-1.68	14.6	14.6	0.03
LaMarcus Aldridge	78	78	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.37	7	-3	10	17.0	13.0	3.96	14.7	14.1	0.68
Wesley Matthews	75	73	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.45	2	2	0	16.9	14.0	2.89	14.7	14.5	0.13
Nolan Smith	20	21	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.27	7	-3	10	16.8	16.2	0.63	13.7	14.9	-1.18
Nicolas Batum	68	68	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.32	4	0	4	16.2	16.9	-0.70	15.0	13.8	1.19
Jonny Flynn	8	7	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.01	1	3	-2	15.7	16.4	-0.67	17.9	14.4	3.49
Kurt Thomas	28	31	0.03	0.47	-0.45	-0.06	3	1	2	17.6	15.8	1.85	14.2	14.9	-0.70
Raymond Felton	64	66	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.11	-4	8	-12	16.3	16.5	-0.25	14.6	14.7	-0.17
Joel Przybilla	42	41	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.06	-3	7	-10	16.2	16.5	-0.27	15.4	14.0	1.40
Craig Smith	14	16	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.02	-3	7	-10	13.0	17.0	-3.96	14.1	14.7	-0.68
Luke Babbitt	9	11	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.01	-6	10	-16	14.1	16.6	-2.49	10.7	15.1	-4.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.65,0.6,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.4,0.38,0.3,0.53,0.58,0.68,0.87,0.81,0.73,0.68,0.89,0.84,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 93, MIL 95	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.52,0.6,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.68,0.61,0.58,0.49,0.56,0.51,0.54,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.31,0.29,0.4,0.5,0.43,0.47,0.62,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.83,0.68,0.84,0.78,0.83,1	93.3%
SAC 104, DAL 106	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.55,0.57,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.52,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.38,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.38,0.62,0.67,0.73,0.86,0.76,0.87,0.95,0.85,0.94,0.85,1	92.4%
ORL 94, HOU 107	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.5,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.6,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.66,0.6,0.61,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.34,0.48,0.57,0.68,0.69,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.95,0.99,1,1	92.3%