NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	103		Excitement	12.2 [8]		MVP	Al Jefferson (UTA): +101.4%
Sacramento Kings	102		Comeback	63.9 [16]		LVP	DeMarcus Cousins (SAC): -49.3%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	1.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,0,0.11,1.01	0.12	0.93	0.03	19	68%	1.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.13,0.12	-0.05	0.15	-0.02	10	35%	0.12	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Gordon Hayward	0.12	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.00	11	64%	0.18	3	-0.06	6	100%	0.08
DeMarre Carroll	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Derrick Favors	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.06	3	-0.08	4	50%	-0.04
Enes Kanter	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	10	30%	-0.07	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.07,-0.17	0.03	-0.20	0.01	11	58%	-0.09	1	-0.08	2	100%	0.02
CJ Miles	-0.18	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.07	-0.11	0.00	8	19%	-0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Paul Millsap	-0.21	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.03	-0.18	0.00	8	62%	0.06	4	-0.27	0	0%	0.00

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.07,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,0.59	0.59	-0.05	0.65	0.00	18	42%	0.73	2	-0.14	2	50%	-0.04
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.14,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.07	0.07	0.13	-0.05	0.01	17	64%	0.10	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.08
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Donte Greene	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.06	0.00	4	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	4	10%	-0.12	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	0.05	-0.23	0.03	15	54%	-0.18	1	-0.03	5	60%	-0.20
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24	-0.24	-0.08	-0.15	0.01	10	45%	-0.14	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.28,-0.39,-0.49	-0.49	-0.16	-0.34	-0.01	28	35%	-0.33	3	-0.16	7	57%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.6	0.8	25.0	15.8	23.0	2.5	40.7	131.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

UTA +96.0%

UTA +20.9%

SAC -65.7%

SAC -10.4%

UTA +9.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	SAC	NBA	UTA	SAC	NBA
this game	16.5	13.1	15.6	106.2	104.1	102.8
season	15.8	14.9		104.0	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.1		107.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	17.1	15.7	16.5	16.8	16.5
SAC	13.6	12.4	13.5	12.7	13.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gordon Hayward	73	73	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.47	5	-4	9	15.9	18.3	-2.44	13.2	12.8	0.35
Alec Burks	44	46	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.52	1	0	1	16.6	16.4	0.18	12.2	13.9	-1.71
Devin Harris	59	57	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.53	-1	2	-3	16.2	17.0	-0.83	13.7	12.1	1.61
Al Jefferson	72	72	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.49	-4	5	-9	16.3	16.9	-0.57	13.7	11.3	2.44
Paul Millsap	52	52	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.56	-8	9	-17	16.4	16.6	-0.20	14.1	11.9	2.20
Derrick Favors	45	46	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.04	9	-8	17	16.6	16.4	0.20	11.9	14.1	-2.20
Enes Kanter	25	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	-4	9	16.9	16.3	0.57	11.3	13.7	-2.44
Jamaal Tinsley	38	41	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	-0.11	2	-1	3	17.0	16.2	0.83	12.1	13.7	-1.61
DeMarre Carroll	16	17	-0.08	0.58	-0.65	0.01	-3	4	-7	18.6	16.1	2.55	13.2	13.0	0.14
CJ Miles	61	60	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	-0.06	-1	2	-3	16.6	16.3	0.26	13.6	12.2	1.43

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	30	30	0.34	-0.84	1.18	0.04	10	-11	21	13.1	13.0	0.06	17.5	16.0	1.50
Charles Hayes	38	36	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.12	0	-1	1	12.9	13.2	-0.27	16.8	16.3	0.54
John Salmons	65	64	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.19	8	-9	17	13.2	12.7	0.50	17.3	14.8	2.50
Jimmer Fredette	16	17	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.08	4	-5	9	11.6	13.4	-1.79	16.2	16.5	-0.31
Donte Greene	19	20	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	1	-3	12.9	13.1	-0.21	16.1	16.6	-0.43
Tyreke Evans	62	60	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.46	6	-7	13	12.2	14.6	-2.36	16.4	16.6	-0.25
DeMarcus Cousins	72	72	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.51	6	-7	13	13.3	12.4	0.92	16.6	16.1	0.56
Isaiah Thomas	54	55	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	0.14	-17	16	-33	14.2	11.7	2.54	15.4	17.9	-2.44
Marcus Thornton	68	67	-0.84	0.34	-1.18	-0.52	-11	10	-21	13.0	13.1	-0.06	16.0	17.5	-1.50
Jason Thompson	66	64	-1.16	0.66	-1.83	-0.90	-9	8	-17	13.0	13.2	-0.14	16.5	16.5	-0.08

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.52,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.28,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.21,0.25,0.27,0.29,0.29,0.1,0.16,0.2,0.26,0.21,0.13,0.22,0.15,0.2,0.28,0.41,0.53,0.39,0.62,0.54,0.67,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
POR 90, UTA 86	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.2,0.23,0.28,0.33,0.25,0.16,0.14,0.13,0.15,0.12,0.16,0.2,0.14,0.23,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.47,0.46,0.47,0.45,0.55,0.67,0.27,0	91.3%
SEA 97, MEM 94	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.31,0.28,0.25,0.19,0.2,0.16,0.25,0.3,0.18,0.18,0.21,0.2,0.17,0.27,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.21,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.22,0.21,0.38,0.32,0.43,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.71,0.57,0.08,0	90.9%
CHI 87, MIN 83	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.6,0.51,0.44,0.35,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.25,0.22,0.32,0.34,0.27,0.31,0.36,0.36,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.28,0.15,0.17,0.26,0.23,0.28,0.4,0.39,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.25,0.42,0.23,0.31,0.53,0.61,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.28,0	90.8%