NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	6.7 [369]		MVP	Tiago Splitter (SAS): +23.6%
San Antonio Spurs	122		Comeback	2.4 [626]		LVP	Matt Bonner (SAS): -4.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.07	0.00	3	87%	0.14	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.26,0.23,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.21	-0.03	0.05	15	78%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.11	0.00	0.01	15	61%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.01	16	52%	0.10	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Quentin Richardson	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	3	83%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeAndre Liggins	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	4	75%	0.11	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.02	16	52%	0.10	3	-0.08	10	40%	-0.09
Glen Davis	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.08	0.13	-0.02	5	86%	0.24	1	-0.00	4	100%	0.04
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.08	0.12	-0.02	10	70%	0.24	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.08,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.09	0.07	21	66%	0.22	3	-0.07	5	100%	0.01
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.12	0.00	0.03	5	100%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	-0.01	0.03	12	62%	0.07	0	0.00	10	70%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.02	-0.01	4	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	6	58%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	10	42%	0.01	0	0.00	6	83%	0.02
James Anderson	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	0.00	7	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	28.3	2.0	27.3	15.6	22.2	2.4	32.4	130.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +10.3%

SAS +14.7%

SAS +13.4%

SAS +9.8%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	SAS	NBA	ORL	SAS	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	15.6	119.4	134.1	102.8
season	16.2	15.3		102.8	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.8		101.5	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	14.1	15.9	15.8	16.6	15.6
SAS	14.7	16.1	16.2	16.1	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
DeAndre Liggins	23	24	0.03	-0.53	0.56	0.09	-2	-9	7	15.5	15.6	-0.05	15.2	16.0	-0.79
Hedo Turkoglu	73	71	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.19	1	-12	13	15.7	14.9	0.78	16.3	13.7	2.56
Ryan Anderson	65	65	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	-0.21	-1	-10	9	16.2	14.0	2.28	16.3	14.3	2.02
Chris Duhon	32	31	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.00	-8	-3	-5	16.3	15.2	1.15	14.2	16.5	-2.36
Jameer Nelson	61	60	-0.26	-0.24	-0.03	-0.18	-3	-8	5	15.2	16.3	-1.15	16.5	14.2	2.36
Glen Davis	36	36	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	-3	-5	16.4	15.0	1.40	14.9	16.3	-1.47
Quentin Richardson	30	29	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	-0.00	-10	-1	-9	15.6	15.5	0.06	15.1	16.0	-0.94
JJ Redick	68	65	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.19	-11	0	-11	14.9	17.4	-2.46	15.6	16.1	-0.46
Dwight Howard	77	74	-0.54	0.04	-0.59	-0.16	-13	2	-15	15.0	18.2	-3.25	15.7	16.0	-0.31

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	58	60	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.02	19	-8	27	15.3	16.5	-1.25	15.9	15.0	0.87
Gary Neal	28	28	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.09	11	0	11	14.4	16.3	-1.90	16.8	15.0	1.75
Tiago Splitter	35	37	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	1	9	14.1	16.8	-2.70	15.9	15.3	0.64
Tony Parker	68	70	0.32	0.18	0.13	0.17	5	6	-1	16.4	13.9	2.51	15.5	15.7	-0.12
Manu Ginobili	43	45	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.02	11	0	11	15.2	16.2	-1.06	15.3	15.8	-0.48
Matt Bonner	37	39	0.21	0.29	-0.08	-0.08	10	1	9	14.3	16.7	-2.44	15.4	15.7	-0.26
Richard Jefferson	61	62	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.23	-2	13	-15	16.4	14.4	2.01	15.2	16.2	-1.00
James Anderson	4	4	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.09	6	5	1	14.2	15.8	-1.57	17.2	15.5	1.77
Tim Duncan	58	58	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.16	-3	14	-17	16.8	13.9	2.88	15.4	15.9	-0.48
DeJuan Blair	22	21	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.09	-2	13	-15	16.9	15.4	1.47	15.9	15.5	0.38
Danny Green	41	41	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.24	-10	21	-31	16.6	15.0	1.61	14.8	16.1	-1.31

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.49,0.45,0.39,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.53,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.7,0.7,0.57,0.67,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.83,0.93,0.96,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAC 88, LAL 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.5,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.62,0.6,0.61,0.63,0.69,0.56,0.61,0.49,0.42,0.42,0.46,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.45,0.44,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.66,0.81,0.62,0.58,0.42,0.59,0.8,0.95,0.99,1,1,1,1	93.2%
SAC 91, DEN 107	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.46,0.44,0.53,0.6,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.64,0.59,0.58,0.58,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.32,0.41,0.48,0.48,0.56,0.44,0.54,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.53,0.79,0.88,0.96,0.99,1,1,1,1	92.5%
HOU 81, LAC 89	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.41,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.41,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.68,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.67,0.68,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.8,0.93,0.98,1,1	92.5%