NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	105		Excitement	7.7 [241]		MVP	Ersan Ilyasova (MIL): +45.9%
Toronto Raptors	99		Comeback	3.9 [327]		LVP	James Johnson (TOR): -15.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ersan Ilyasova	0.46	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.23,0.19,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.46	0.26	0.22	0.02	16	82%	0.46	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Beno Udrih	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12	0.05	0.07	0.00	4	69%	0.14	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.07
Drew Gooden	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.09	0.01	0.00	11	68%	0.15	2	-0.06	9	78%	-0.01
Larry Sanders	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	3	70%	0.13	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Mike Dunleavy	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	15	58%	0.22	4	-0.13	3	100%	0.04
Jon Brockman	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tobias Harris	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.00	14	33%	-0.06	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.08
Carlos Delfino	-0.12	0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	7	36%	-0.06	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.04	-0.01	10	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.08	0.03	0.01	7	86%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Linas Kleiza	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	-0.01	-0.00	9	56%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerryd Bayless	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.1,0.14,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.03	-0.00	13	55%	0.05	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	22	44%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	7	39%	-0.03	1	-0.05	4	75%	-0.00
Andrea Bargnani	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.13	-0.13	-0.06	-0.07	0.00	10	46%	-0.01	3	-0.12	4	75%	0.01
James Johnson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.07,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.10	-0.06	-0.01	7	37%	0.04	5	-0.19	2	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	2.5	27.3	15.5	25.4	2.4	35.6	131.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +34.7%

MIL +20.8%

TOR -14.0%

MIL +8.4%

MIL +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	13.9	16.7	15.6	111.7	105.3	102.8
season	14.6	16.5		103.8	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.6		102.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	13.8	14.2	12.8	15.0	13.9
TOR	16.8	17.1	15.5	17.7	16.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ersan Ilyasova	86	87	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.27	13	-7	20	14.2	11.2	2.91	16.6	17.7	-1.07
Brandon Jennings	73	73	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.29	10	-4	14	14.5	11.9	2.65	16.6	17.1	-0.54
Mike Dunleavy	80	80	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.29	9	-3	12	13.8	14.5	-0.69	17.0	15.4	1.61
Beno Udrih	48	47	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.37	2	4	-2	13.9	14.0	-0.12	17.7	15.7	1.96
Larry Sanders	27	27	0.26	0.24	0.01	0.08	6	0	6	13.4	14.1	-0.76	17.0	16.6	0.34
Drew Gooden	65	66	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.21	1	5	-4	14.4	12.8	1.62	16.8	16.6	0.17
Carlos Delfino	59	59	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	5	-4	13.3	15.0	-1.77	15.8	18.3	-2.44
Tobias Harris	24	24	-0.09	0.59	-0.68	0.06	-5	11	-16	13.5	14.1	-0.61	16.2	16.9	-0.69
Jon Brockman	8	7	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	13	-20	11.2	14.2	-2.91	17.7	16.6	1.07

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Gray	5	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.02	0	-6	6	13.2	16.9	-3.72	14.2	13.9	0.30
Andrea Bargnani	59	61	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.19	5	-11	16	16.3	17.4	-1.12	14.0	13.7	0.29
Linas Kleiza	42	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.01	-2	-4	2	17.3	16.2	1.10	12.4	15.0	-2.59
Amir Johnson	47	47	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.13	0	-6	6	17.5	15.9	1.62	15.4	12.4	2.98
Gary Forbes	38	36	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	-0.05	-4	-2	-2	17.6	16.2	1.39	13.7	14.0	-0.27
Leandro Barbosa	47	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.06	-6	0	-6	16.9	16.5	0.43	13.2	14.6	-1.45
Jerryd Bayless	56	58	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	-0.27	-2	-4	2	16.2	17.6	-1.39	14.0	13.7	0.27
James Johnson	53	52	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	-0.25	-6	0	-6	16.4	17.1	-0.71	14.4	13.3	1.18
DeMar DeRozan	79	80	-0.51	0.01	-0.53	-0.34	-6	0	-6	16.6	17.4	-0.81	14.3	11.8	2.50
Ed Davis	44	44	-0.57	0.07	-0.65	-0.31	-9	3	-12	16.6	16.8	-0.21	13.0	14.7	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.66,0.68,0.73,0.73,0.69,0.74,0.68,0.76,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.69,0.67,0.71,0.56,0.65,0.55,0.59,0.48,0.44,0.54,0.43,0.53,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.47,0.6,0.32,0.21,0.16,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 115, WAS 107	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.39,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.63,0.68,0.72,0.71,0.7,0.67,0.65,0.71,0.76,0.79,0.73,0.64,0.73,0.69,0.66,0.72,0.73,0.76,0.71,0.59,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.43,0.32,0.36,0.34,0.47,0.31,0.21,0.02,0,0	92.2%
BOS 101, NJN 92	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.76,0.68,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.59,0.44,0.52,0.5,0.35,0.43,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.31,0.15,0.03,0.01,0	91.8%
IND 125, HOU 115	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.53,0.55,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.54,0.57,0.6,0.66,0.71,0.67,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.72,0.72,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.72,0.67,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.69,0.79,0.74,0.64,0.5,0.48,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.41,0.53,0.66,0.25,0.28,0.06,0,0	91.5%