NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	96		Excitement	4.2 [768]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +23.3%
Dallas Mavericks	102		Comeback	1.1 [932]		LVP	Al Jefferson (UTA): -11.9%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1	0.16	0.00	0.07	17	69%	0.10	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derrick Favors	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.03	0.00	0.03	11	48%	-0.00	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.01
Earl Watson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Devin Harris	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.01	-0.01	9	37%	-0.01	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	-0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	56%	0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	7	50%	0.04	4	-0.10	2	100%	0.01
CJ Miles	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	0.05	12	48%	-0.04	2	-0.03	3	100%	0.00
Al Jefferson	-0.12	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.05	-0.04	0.04	12	41%	-0.07	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.18,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.22	0.06	0.05	21	77%	0.31	4	-0.08	10	90%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.07	0.00	0.00	5	75%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05	0.05	0.09	0.01	0.05	15	65%	0.09	2	-0.05	4	75%	-0.02
Ian Mahinmi	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Yi Jianlian	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	4	37%	-0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	4	60%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.02	-0.00	9	35%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	0.01	0.02	8	50%	-0.03	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Jason Kidd	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	5	33%	-0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	22.4	2.3	28.6	16.6	25.0	1.8	36.1	132.7
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +39.1%

UTA -2.3%

DAL +5.6%

DAL +7.3%

DAL +0.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DAL	NBA	UTA	DAL	NBA
this game	15.4	16.0	15.6	103.2	112.1	102.8
season	15.8	15.5		104.0	101.6
opponent	15.5	15.1		100.9	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	16.7	17.3	17.8	11.1	15.4
DAL	16.8	17.0	16.5	14.2	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	39	39	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.30	8	-14	22	14.6	15.9	-1.32	17.5	14.8	2.68
Enes Kanter	26	24	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.10	-3	-3	0	15.3	15.4	-0.12	17.7	15.3	2.44
Josh Howard	47	47	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	-0.11	-3	-3	0	17.0	13.6	3.41	16.9	15.0	1.85
Paul Millsap	60	61	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.35	4	-10	14	14.7	16.5	-1.75	15.3	17.3	-2.05
Gordon Hayward	28	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.00	-8	2	-10	17.7	14.4	3.32	15.9	16.0	-0.14
Alec Burks	58	56	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.31	2	-8	10	14.3	17.1	-2.87	15.5	16.7	-1.14
Derrick Favors	33	30	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.02	-10	4	-14	16.5	14.7	1.75	17.3	15.3	2.05
Al Jefferson	67	67	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.22	-3	-3	0	15.4	15.3	0.12	15.3	17.7	-2.44
CJ Miles	53	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.23	-3	-3	0	13.8	17.4	-3.59	15.7	16.3	-0.66
Devin Harris	54	52	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.02	-14	8	-22	15.9	14.6	1.32	14.8	17.5	-2.68

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	55	58	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.17	8	-2	10	15.2	17.1	-1.82	14.8	16.3	-1.49
Jason Terry	64	67	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.26	5	1	4	16.0	15.9	0.04	14.6	17.4	-2.82
Shawn Marion	63	63	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	0	6	15.5	16.9	-1.35	15.7	14.6	1.16
Ian Mahinmi	29	31	0.28	0.22	0.06	-0.10	13	-7	20	17.4	15.3	2.09	17.0	14.5	2.52
Rodrigue Beaubois	34	37	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.03	8	-2	10	17.6	14.9	2.70	16.5	14.6	1.97
Jason Kidd	57	56	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.29	-2	8	-10	14.9	17.6	-2.70	14.6	16.5	-1.97
Brendan Haywood	62	62	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.43	-7	13	-20	15.3	17.4	-2.09	14.5	17.0	-2.52
Vince Carter	53	54	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.25	-1	7	-8	16.2	15.6	0.65	16.2	14.1	2.11
Lamar Odom	34	33	0.14	0.36	-0.21	-0.03	6	0	6	17.1	15.3	1.76	15.9	15.1	0.81
Yi Jianlian	4	4	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.17	-6	12	-18	19.2	15.8	3.45	14.5	15.4	-0.89

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.58,0.54,0.6,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.71,0.76,0.72,0.71,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.76,0.79,0.79,0.83,0.89,0.92,0.94,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,1,0.99,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
BKN 117, BOS 122	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.55,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.71,0.75,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.71,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.79,0.86,0.87,0.89,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,0.99,0.99,1	96.2%
SAS 96, OKC 108	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.62,0.71,0.71,0.76,0.74,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.7,0.7,0.67,0.6,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.73,0.74,0.88,0.89,0.91,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.9%
IND 88, DET 96	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.44,0.47,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.7,0.75,0.74,0.78,0.67,0.75,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.88,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1	95.9%