NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	78		Excitement	4.0 [810]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +12.0%
Miami Heat	90		Comeback	1.4 [902]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -15.7%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
JJ Redick	0.06	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.12	-0.01	0.04	10	85%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Von Wafer	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	9	47%	0.04	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.00
Ryan Anderson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Justin Harper	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Quentin Richardson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.06	9	56%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Glen Davis	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.00	0.05	10	46%	-0.04	0	0.00	6	100%	0.00
Dwight Howard	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.02	10	40%	0.01	3	-0.07	10	20%	-0.06
Chris Duhon	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.02	3	12%	-0.06	1	-0.01	2	50%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	-0.05	4	10%	-0.04	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.00
Jameer Nelson	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.12	-0.03	0.00	11	29%	-0.08	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.08	0.02	-0.02	23	57%	0.15	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
LeBron James	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.03	0.05	14	71%	0.17	2	-0.05	7	86%	0.01
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.02	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Jones	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dexter Pittman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.05	0.00	-0.05	3	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	6	42%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	4	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	0.01	11	45%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	33%	-0.01	1	-0.02	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.01	5	50%	0.00	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.7	29.6	19.6	24.2	3.6	32.3	138.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +26.0%

MIA +10.1%

ORL -0.0%

MIA +13.3%

MIA +0.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	MIA	NBA	ORL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.8	14.6	15.6	87.6	101.1	102.8
season	16.2	15.5		102.8	105.6
opponent	15.8	15.8		98.8	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	20.0	18.0	17.0	16.3	17.8
MIA	13.6	12.0	15.7	17.2	14.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Justin Harper	4	5	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.21	7	-19	26	13.2	18.0	-4.77	19.8	14.2	5.56
Earl Clark	5	6	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.23	8	-20	28	11.2	18.2	-7.00	17.8	14.3	3.52
Von Wafer	25	26	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.23	7	-19	26	17.9	17.8	0.10	14.7	14.5	0.25
Chris Duhon	33	34	-0.07	-0.43	0.37	-0.24	6	-18	24	16.1	18.8	-2.68	14.8	14.4	0.44
Glen Davis	43	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.05	-5	-7	2	17.5	18.1	-0.53	14.0	15.0	-1.04
Quentin Richardson	43	43	-0.15	-0.34	0.19	-0.21	2	-14	16	17.6	18.0	-0.49	14.4	14.7	-0.30
Hedo Turkoglu	46	46	-0.34	-0.15	-0.19	0.07	-14	2	-16	18.0	17.6	0.49	14.7	14.4	0.30
Dwight Howard	68	67	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.06	-11	-1	-10	18.2	16.6	1.62	14.9	13.5	1.46
Jameer Nelson	56	55	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	0.09	-18	6	-24	18.8	16.1	2.68	14.4	14.8	-0.44
JJ Redick	64	63	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.08	-19	7	-26	17.8	17.9	-0.10	14.5	14.7	-0.25
Ryan Anderson	58	58	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	0.15	-23	11	-34	18.4	16.6	1.84	13.7	16.1	-2.32

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	59	58	0.59	-0.09	0.69	-0.08	23	-11	34	13.6	16.3	-2.69	18.3	16.9	1.39
LeBron James	66	68	0.50	-0.00	0.50	-0.17	23	-11	34	14.3	15.3	-1.02	18.0	17.0	1.00
Joel Anthony	50	51	0.40	0.10	0.31	-0.01	14	-2	16	14.3	14.9	-0.57	18.4	17.1	1.32
Mario Chalmers	58	59	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.09	8	4	4	14.6	14.5	0.10	17.9	17.6	0.32
Chris Bosh	59	58	0.28	0.22	0.05	-0.02	10	2	8	13.9	15.8	-1.83	18.3	16.9	1.34
Mike Miller	31	30	0.22	0.28	-0.07	0.07	5	7	-2	14.2	14.7	-0.55	18.1	17.7	0.39
Norris Cole	36	34	0.17	0.33	-0.15	0.26	-3	15	-18	15.2	14.1	1.13	17.1	18.3	-1.17
Udonis Haslem	46	48	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.04	5	7	-2	14.5	14.6	-0.06	17.3	18.4	-1.12
Juwan Howard	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	19	-26	19.8	14.2	5.56	13.2	18.0	-4.77
James Jones	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	19	-26	19.8	14.2	5.56	13.2	18.0	-4.77
Dexter Pittman	5	4	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.21	-7	19	-26	19.8	14.2	5.56	13.2	18.0	-4.77
Shane Battier	25	27	-0.09	0.59	-0.69	0.02	-4	16	-20	15.6	14.1	1.51	17.4	18.0	-0.52

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.65,0.62,0.58,0.57,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.61,0.64,0.75,0.72,0.8,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.78,0.85,0.86,0.87,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.9,0.9,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 95, DET 104	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.63,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.61,0.71,0.78,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.81,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,0.99,1,0.98,1,1,1	96.3%
TOR 74, SEA 94	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	96.0%
PHI 87, BOS 120	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.62,0.68,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.61,0.66,0.68,0.76,0.75,0.75,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.89,0.87,0.91,0.89,0.94,0.93,0.87,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.7%