NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Toronto Raptors	74		Excitement	3.6 [1079]		MVP	Rashard Lewis (SEA): +8.8%
Seattle SuperSonics	94		Comeback	1.1 [1108]		LVP	Vince Carter (TOR): -8.3%

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.07	0.00	0.04	12	67%	0.05	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Lamond Murray	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	60%	0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Lonny Baxter	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.06	0.00	-0.04	1	0%	0.00	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Morris Peterson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Michael Curry	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	2	0%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	14	46%	-0.03	1	-0.03	7	43%	-0.04
Milt Palacio	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.03	-0.01	0.02	3	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Chris Bosh	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	21	43%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.08	0.00	-0.00	19	55%	0.09	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	8	44%	0.02	1	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.07	9	44%	0.02	3	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	14	64%	0.06	5	-0.05	8	87%	0.01
Jerome James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.04	0.01	-0.04	4	50%	0.03	2	-0.03	2	50%	-0.00
Ansu Sesay	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richie Frahm	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vitaly Potapenko	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	0.02	9	52%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	35%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Ronald Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	19.8	1.7	29.3	16.0	26.8	1.8	29.3	124.8
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +19.5%

TOR -4.4%

SEA +8.6%

SEA +23.0%

SEA +3.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	TOR	SEA	NBA	TOR	SEA	NBA
this game	16.9	16.4	15.7	86.0	108.0	100.5
season	16.8	15.6		94.8	105.0
opponent	15.7	15.7		105.9	98.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
TOR	19.1	17.1	14.7	16.7	16.9
SEA	16.9	15.6	19.6	14.0	16.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roger Mason Jr.	9	9	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.05	-2	-18	16	16.4	16.9	-0.46	14.6	16.7	-2.10
Lamond Murray	18	19	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.08	-3	-17	14	20.3	15.9	4.39	14.2	17.1	-2.92
Lonny Baxter	22	24	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.04	-1	-19	18	16.4	17.0	-0.67	17.7	16.0	1.76
Milt Palacio	41	41	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	0.13	-8	-12	4	16.8	17.0	-0.20	15.5	17.2	-1.70
Chris Bosh	24	24	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.05	-7	-13	6	18.9	16.1	2.85	17.4	16.1	1.30
Michael Curry	38	37	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.04	-13	-7	-6	16.7	17.0	-0.32	14.9	17.6	-2.74
Morris Peterson	72	74	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	0.04	-14	-6	-8	16.6	18.4	-1.87	17.0	13.4	3.59
Donyell Marshall	76	76	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	0.01	-15	-5	-10	16.5	19.7	-3.21	16.6	15.1	1.54
Vince Carter	62	62	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	0.01	-17	-3	-14	16.2	18.7	-2.51	17.4	14.2	3.19
Alvin Williams	68	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.57	0.05	-20	0	-20	17.0	16.4	0.53	16.3	16.9	-0.64

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome James	45	43	0.56	-0.06	0.63	-0.05	21	-1	22	16.0	16.9	-0.90	15.9	17.8	-1.86
Ray Allen	72	71	0.53	-0.03	0.57	-0.14	23	-3	26	16.0	18.7	-2.69	17.2	15.5	1.69
Rashard Lewis	64	65	0.51	-0.01	0.52	-0.02	18	2	16	17.2	14.3	2.90	16.3	18.6	-2.33
Vladimir Radmanovic	51	51	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.13	17	3	14	15.0	18.5	-3.52	16.3	17.6	-1.30
Luke Ridnour	37	35	0.34	0.16	0.17	-0.02	12	8	4	15.3	17.3	-1.94	17.0	16.8	0.19
Antonio Daniels	50	51	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.07	8	12	-4	17.3	15.3	1.94	16.8	17.0	-0.19
Calvin Booth	36	35	0.13	0.37	-0.23	0.05	3	17	-14	18.5	15.0	3.52	17.6	16.3	1.30
Ansu Sesay	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	12.5	16.5	-4.03	25.0	16.8	8.24
Richie Frahm	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	18	-16	12.5	16.5	-4.03	25.0	16.8	8.24
Ronald Murray	36	35	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	0.05	-3	23	-26	16.2	16.6	-0.37	17.1	16.7	0.38
Vitaly Potapenko	40	42	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.03	-3	23	-26	17.1	15.9	1.27	17.6	16.1	1.48

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.53,0.59,0.66,0.63,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.65,0.64,0.6,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.87,0.87,0.95,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,1,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SEA 83, UTA 101	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.67,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.56,0.62,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.72,0.81,0.86,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.86,0.89,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.4%
SAS 85, HOU 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.57,0.64,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.7,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.61,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.69,0.76,0.85,0.87,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.88,0.87,0.94,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%
IND 108, BOS 135	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.64,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.57,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.65,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.59,0.63,0.66,0.74,0.79,0.84,0.88,0.89,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.98,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.1%