NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	6.5 [400]		MVP	DeMar DeRozan (TOR): +16.3%
Toronto Raptors	106		Comeback	1.1 [871]		LVP	Rasual Butler (TOR): -10.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tiago Splitter	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.16,0.16	0.05	0.11	-0.00	8	72%	0.20	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Matt Bonner	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.09	0.03	-0.00	6	83%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.09	0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	-0.00	0.00	7	81%	0.13	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.08,0.09	0.06	0.04	0.02	23	59%	0.25	5	-0.16	12	100%	0.06
Richard Jefferson	0.07	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.01	0.00	6	83%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05	0.06	0.02	0.03	4	85%	0.12	2	-0.07	5	80%	0.01
Gary Neal	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.05	0.01	5	67%	0.08	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	7	43%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Cory Joseph	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,0,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.15	0.04	0.02	21	66%	0.23	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.01
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.10	0.07	0.01	6	85%	0.16	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.02	0.00	5	71%	0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	0.01
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.02	0.01	5	100%	0.13	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Magloire	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Aaron Gray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02
Jose Calderon	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.08,0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04	-0.04	0.04	-0.06	0.03	14	55%	0.00	1	-0.04	1	0%	-0.01
Leandro Barbosa	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	39%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Forbes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.00	8	33%	-0.03	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
James Johnson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.01	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	0.00	10	50%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	1.8	27.1	15.7	24.5	1.8	37.4	130.2
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.9%

SAS +3.0%

SAS +6.8%

TOR -3.8%

SAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	TOR	NBA	SAS	TOR	NBA
this game	14.7	14.5	15.6	114.1	108.2	102.8
season	15.3	16.5		109.1	98.9
opponent	15.2	15.2		102.9	101.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	13.2	15.5	15.7	14.4	14.7
TOR	15.6	15.1	12.5	15.0	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Neal	55	56	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.35	10	-3	13	13.1	16.8	-3.74	15.0	13.8	1.20
Matt Bonner	39	38	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.14	17	-10	27	13.9	15.2	-1.27	16.3	13.4	2.98
Tiago Splitter	57	56	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.24	13	-6	19	13.9	15.8	-1.94	15.9	12.7	3.16
Tony Parker	82	80	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-5	17	14.6	15.4	-0.84	14.3	15.5	-1.20
Danny Green	57	56	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.32	5	2	3	15.3	13.9	1.45	14.5	14.6	-0.09
Manu Ginobili	42	43	0.27	0.23	0.03	0.15	4	3	1	13.7	15.5	-1.78	13.5	15.3	-1.76
Kawhi Leonard	31	32	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.12	-5	12	-17	14.9	14.6	0.27	14.5	14.5	0.02
Cory Joseph	5	5	-0.12	0.62	-0.73	0.09	-7	14	-21	22.8	14.3	8.51	15.4	14.5	0.93
Tim Duncan	39	38	-0.12	0.62	-0.74	-0.06	-2	9	-11	16.9	13.3	3.56	13.5	15.2	-1.71
DeJuan Blair	33	33	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	-0.02	-4	11	-15	16.1	14.0	2.06	13.5	15.0	-1.52
Richard Jefferson	55	53	-0.34	0.84	-1.17	-0.10	-8	15	-23	14.9	14.4	0.51	13.7	15.5	-1.79

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jamaal Magloire	21	22	0.22	-0.72	0.94	-0.07	10	-17	27	12.2	15.2	-2.97	18.7	13.6	5.10
Leandro Barbosa	33	35	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-8	9	15.6	14.0	1.64	12.9	15.7	-2.79
Aaron Gray	20	19	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.06	-6	-1	-5	15.6	14.2	1.42	13.9	14.9	-0.95
Anthony Carter	42	43	-0.20	-0.30	0.09	-0.23	1	-8	9	16.4	13.1	3.30	14.1	15.2	-1.02
James Johnson	46	46	-0.23	-0.28	0.05	-0.05	-6	-1	-5	14.0	14.9	-0.90	16.3	13.4	2.88
Amir Johnson	45	47	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	0.02	-9	2	-11	14.5	14.5	0.02	15.2	14.3	0.94
DeMar DeRozan	78	78	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.20	-2	-5	3	13.8	17.2	-3.37	14.9	14.0	0.97
Gary Forbes	32	31	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.10	-7	0	-7	15.0	14.3	0.67	13.0	15.5	-2.45
Ed Davis	48	48	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.25	-3	-4	1	14.6	14.4	0.16	13.6	15.7	-2.12
Rasual Butler	56	57	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	-3	-1	14.6	14.4	0.24	13.9	15.9	-1.98
Jose Calderon	69	69	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.23	-10	3	-13	14.0	15.8	-1.86	15.6	12.8	2.75

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.3,0.34,0.33,0.31,0.31,0.28,0.29,0.24,0.17,0.23,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.25,0.28,0.27,0.33,0.48,0.48,0.38,0.3,0.22,0.18,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.38,0.21,0.14,0.01,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 96, SEA 90	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.41,0.35,0.29,0.33,0.31,0.29,0.34,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.21,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.25,0.14,0.16,0.23,0.25,0.24,0.33,0.29,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.26,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.28,0.17,0.11,0.09,0.25,0.08,0.06,0.02,0	93.5%
IND 105, MIL 101	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.4,0.36,0.37,0.37,0.33,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.29,0.31,0.29,0.37,0.32,0.25,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.3,0.3,0.21,0.28,0.2,0.36,0.33,0.32,0.38,0.31,0.34,0.33,0.22,0.19,0.26,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.36,0.35,0.22,0.19,0.02,0.02,0,0	92.4%
IND 87, HOU 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.31,0.34,0.3,0.33,0.28,0.21,0.23,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.15,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.21,0.26,0.22,0.33,0.36,0.35,0.38,0.31,0.3,0.27,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.1,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.04,0	92.4%