NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	88		Excitement	7.9 [218]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): +15.4%
San Antonio Spurs	86		Comeback	10.0 [44]		LVP	Gary Neal (SAS): -23.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.15	0.02	0.12	-0.01	19	53%	0.21	2	-0.06	5	40%	-0.05
John Salmons	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.15,0.15	0.02	0.12	-0.01	7	50%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	12	61%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.02
Donte Greene	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Thompson	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.01	6	56%	0.10	2	-0.08	6	67%	-0.02
Jimmer Fredette	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	4	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	5	20%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.01	2	-0.06	2	0%	-0.03
Marcus Thornton	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16	-0.08	-0.10	-0.03	17	47%	0.05	5	-0.21	2	100%	0.01
Isaiah Thomas	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.08	-0.12	-0.01	4	0%	-0.14	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,0,0,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.03	0.08	-0.01	6	58%	0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.02	0.01	6	62%	0.07	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.04
DeJuan Blair	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.01	-0.02	9	48%	0.04	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.12,-0.12,0,0.05,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	18	55%	0.15	3	-0.15	8	87%	0.02
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	8	56%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.05	0.03	-0.00	8	31%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Danny Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.2	-0.20	-0.07	-0.12	0.00	11	36%	-0.16	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.08	-0.15	-0.00	12	33%	-0.16	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.8	28.0	14.8	27.0	1.8	31.7	130.5
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +56.4%

SAS -16.0%

SAC +23.6%

SAS -12.2%

SAS -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	SAS	NBA	SAC	SAS	NBA
this game	16.3	15.3	15.6	96.7	94.5	102.8
season	14.9	15.3		102.2	109.1
opponent	15.2	15.1		101.5	107.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	14.6	17.3	14.2	19.7	16.3
SAS	14.8	14.0	16.4	16.3	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Marcus Thornton	73	73	0.92	-0.42	1.35	0.42	17	-15	32	16.2	16.6	-0.31	16.1	12.4	3.61
John Salmons	56	58	0.91	-0.41	1.32	0.62	10	-8	18	15.4	17.8	-2.38	16.2	13.8	2.44
Tyreke Evans	79	80	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.41	10	-8	18	16.3	16.2	0.07	16.0	10.5	5.56
Francisco Garcia	20	19	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.74	-7	9	-16	16.8	16.2	0.70	13.6	15.8	-2.23
DeMarcus Cousins	53	52	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.49	1	1	0	16.0	16.7	-0.69	15.4	15.3	0.10
Jason Thompson	57	57	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.16	4	-2	6	15.9	16.9	-0.96	15.7	14.7	0.97
JJ Hickson	46	46	-0.16	0.66	-0.81	-0.04	-4	6	-10	16.7	16.0	0.70	14.5	16.2	-1.70
Donte Greene	21	21	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.05	-5	7	-12	17.1	16.1	1.09	14.9	15.5	-0.63
Jimmer Fredette	23	23	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.19	-3	5	-8	16.4	16.3	0.11	14.3	15.7	-1.45
Isaiah Thomas	27	26	-0.42	0.92	-1.34	-0.04	-13	15	-28	18.0	15.6	2.35	12.5	16.5	-3.92

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	35	36	0.42	-0.92	1.33	0.06	12	-14	26	15.5	15.2	0.24	19.4	14.3	5.05
Tiago Splitter	44	45	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.40	15	-17	32	15.4	15.3	0.18	18.6	14.1	4.49
Richard Jefferson	57	57	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.38	12	-14	26	15.2	15.6	-0.40	16.7	15.6	1.15
Kawhi Leonard	44	43	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	0.08	-6	4	-10	14.4	16.2	-1.80	14.4	18.0	-3.67
DeJuan Blair	46	47	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.00	-7	5	-12	14.7	16.0	-1.22	13.9	18.9	-4.99
Cory Joseph	11	10	-0.21	-0.29	0.07	0.11	-11	9	-20	16.8	15.1	1.68	15.7	16.4	-0.68
Tim Duncan	51	49	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.03	-16	14	-30	15.2	15.5	-0.33	14.2	18.7	-4.47
Danny Green	50	51	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.36	-7	5	-12	16.0	14.6	1.37	17.0	15.5	1.49
Tony Parker	75	75	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.60	0	-2	2	15.1	16.3	-1.18	16.2	16.7	-0.54
Gary Neal	42	42	-0.75	0.25	-1.00	-0.69	-2	0	-2	16.4	14.4	1.93	17.3	15.5	1.82

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.32,0.33,0.37,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.19,0.23,0.29,0.34,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.46,0.34,0.37,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.32,0.35,0.31,0.21,0.22,0.21,0.26,0.3,0.48,0.52,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.61,0.81,0.85,0.77,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 89, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.31,0.31,0.32,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.39,0.49,0.38,0.4,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.41,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.48,0.53,0.47,0.53,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.81,0.63,0.68,0.58,0	90.6%
CHH 78, TOR 77	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.46,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.36,0.35,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.28,0.2,0.3,0.42,0.42,0.34,0.36,0.3,0.42,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.15,0.14,0.21,0.3,0.35,0.34,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.83,0.8,0.72,0.78,0.42,0	89.9%
IND 89, PHI 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.42,0.37,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.22,0.23,0.22,0.24,0.21,0.27,0.28,0.3,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.21,0.27,0.25,0.26,0.28,0.2,0.15,0.24,0.35,0.38,0.34,0.21,0.12,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.3,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.46,0.54,0.69,0.83,0.69,0.15,0	89.3%