NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	6.6 [386]		MVP	Tyreke Evans (SAC): +18.2%
Sacramento Kings	103		Comeback	27.0 [24]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (MIL): -31.2%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Brandon Jennings	0.12	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.02,0.12	0.11	0.00	-0.01	23	62%	0.25	3	-0.13	4	25%	-0.04
Carlos Delfino	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	0.00	0.01	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Shaun Livingston	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.01	5	60%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jon Leuer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	0.00	5	58%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Larry Sanders	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	7	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.01	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	13	50%	0.06	4	-0.09	10	60%	-0.03
Beno Udrih	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.07	-0.01	-0.06	-0.00	8	50%	-0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.31	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.31	-0.08	-0.24	-0.00	10	57%	-0.15	7	-0.16	3	100%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tyreke Evans	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,0.18	0.18	0.02	0.19	0.03	18	58%	0.31	5	-0.12	9	100%	0.15
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.11,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	23	53%	0.10	4	-0.08	5	100%	0.02
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,0.01	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.00	13	43%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.07
Isaiah Thomas	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	2	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
JJ Hickson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Garcia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	18	45%	0.01	4	-0.07	6	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.9	2.8	26.4	15.3	27.5	2.3	32.1	134.3
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL -22.8%

SAC +40.8%

SAC +27.0%

SAC +5.4%

MIL -0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	SAC	NBA	MIL	SAC	NBA
this game	15.0	14.3	15.6	102.0	104.0	102.8
season	14.6	14.9		103.8	102.2
opponent	15.1	15.6		107.9	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	12.3	15.4	15.0	17.4	15.0
SAC	15.3	14.0	15.0	12.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Leuer	41	43	0.41	-0.91	1.33	-0.06	16	-19	35	15.6	14.6	1.00	14.3	14.2	0.03
Larry Sanders	42	43	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.02	10	-13	23	14.0	15.7	-1.67	14.8	13.8	0.97
Shaun Livingston	60	62	0.06	-0.56	0.61	-0.38	15	-18	33	15.6	14.0	1.56	13.7	15.2	-1.48
Carlos Delfino	24	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.22	-14	11	-25	14.1	15.3	-1.13	14.8	14.1	0.77
Ersan Ilyasova	35	34	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.05	-16	13	-29	14.0	15.5	-1.57	14.5	14.1	0.36
Beno Udrih	51	52	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.50	-3	0	-3	15.2	14.8	0.41	13.5	15.1	-1.61
Brandon Jennings	87	87	-0.59	0.09	-0.67	-0.38	-7	4	-11	15.2	13.0	2.23	14.4	13.6	0.77
Drew Gooden	70	69	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.47	-7	4	-11	15.1	14.7	0.37	14.3	14.2	0.09
Stephen Jackson	80	80	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.46	-9	6	-15	14.9	15.2	-0.23	14.5	13.4	1.11

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	72	71	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-9	21	14.2	14.4	-0.20	15.6	13.3	2.32
Tyreke Evans	86	83	0.73	-0.23	0.96	0.38	12	-9	21	14.3	13.8	0.48	14.9	15.3	-0.42
Marcus Thornton	86	86	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.38	9	-6	15	14.3	14.2	0.13	15.3	12.7	2.54
Jason Thompson	48	47	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.46	3	0	3	12.8	15.6	-2.86	15.7	14.3	1.35
Jimmer Fredette	49	48	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.61	-3	6	-9	13.1	15.4	-2.22	15.1	14.8	0.28
Isaiah Thomas	0	1	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	3	-3	0.0	14.3	-14.26	2.0	15.1	-13.11
Charles Hayes	18	18	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.03	-1	4	-5	15.9	13.9	1.99	12.4	15.6	-3.17
DeMarcus Cousins	57	57	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	-0.30	10	-7	17	15.2	12.9	2.32	14.2	16.1	-1.88
Travis Outlaw	9	8	-0.15	0.65	-0.79	0.09	-8	11	-19	13.8	14.3	-0.53	20.1	14.5	5.60
Francisco Garcia	18	18	-0.21	0.71	-0.91	0.03	-8	11	-19	14.0	14.3	-0.32	12.8	15.5	-2.70
JJ Hickson	52	53	-0.36	0.86	-1.23	-0.04	-11	14	-25	15.2	13.3	1.88	14.9	15.1	-0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.53,0.47,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.31,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.19,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.08,0.09,0.15,0.16,0.15,0.1,0.16,0.05,0.07,0.12,0.11,0.04,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.21,0.24,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 87, ATL 88	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.37,0.36,0.3,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.22,0.23,0.15,0.13,0.15,0.22,0.14,0.19,0.25,0.17,0.19,0.12,0.08,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.11,0.15,0.17,0.15,0.1,0.14,0.15,0.1,0.28,1	93.0%
ATL 102, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.51,0.47,0.49,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.14,0.18,0.13,0.16,0.12,0.1,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.12,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.2,0.07,0.14,0.58,1	91.7%
CHI 96, IND 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.43,0.48,0.41,0.37,0.43,0.39,0.41,0.31,0.4,0.3,0.3,0.36,0.28,0.25,0.16,0.17,0.2,0.19,0.22,0.24,0.15,0.12,0.1,0.12,0.16,0.13,0.12,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.16,0.18,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,1	91.5%