NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	89		Excitement	9.1 [106]		MVP	Andrew Bynum (LAL): +30.1%
Los Angeles Lakers	92		Comeback	6.2 [239]		LVP	Danilo Gallinari (DEN): -36.0%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Harrington	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.17,0.17,0.13,0.24,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.17	0.08	0.09	-0.00	17	58%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Arron Afflalo	0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.01	10	52%	0.11	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Chris Andersen	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	9	59%	0.05	1	-0.02	4	75%	-0.00
Timofey Mozgov	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	7	57%	0.07	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Fernandez	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	0.00	6	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nene	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13	-0.04	-0.08	0.01	10	52%	-0.05	4	-0.09	5	60%	-0.03
Ty Lawson	-0.27	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.27,-0.27	-0.08	-0.17	0.01	8	45%	-0.15	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.16
Danilo Gallinari	-0.36	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.36	-0.10	-0.24	0.01	12	27%	-0.33	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bynum	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.19,0.19,0.3,0.3	0.30	0.11	0.21	0.02	18	74%	0.46	5	-0.16	3	100%	0.02
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.01	-0.00	10	71%	0.13	3	-0.07	4	75%	0.01
Jason Kapono	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	6	42%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.06	0.00	7	50%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	7	43%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.02	9	25%	-0.06	1	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.04,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.07,-0.15,-0.26	-0.26	-0.11	-0.14	0.00	18	40%	-0.04	4	-0.22	6	83%	0.05
Metta World Peace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27	-0.27	-0.21	-0.06	0.00	8	0%	-0.17	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.5	2.4	28.9	16.7	26.3	0.6	37.4	135.8
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +21.6%

LAL +19.8%

LAL +37.4%

DEN -23.5%

DEN -5.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	LAL	NBA	DEN	LAL	NBA
this game	13.5	16.6	15.6	93.7	95.8	102.8
season	14.5	16.2		107.5	103.8
opponent	15.1	15.8		103.5	104.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	13.2	11.3	13.8	16.8	13.5
LAL	16.1	15.3	15.7	20.1	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rudy Fernandez	35	38	0.45	-0.95	1.41	0.13	11	-14	25	15.4	12.5	2.89	16.6	16.6	-0.02
Timofey Mozgov	53	54	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-6	9	13.6	13.4	0.21	16.2	17.1	-0.89
Chris Andersen	10	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-5	7	13.0	13.6	-0.61	15.0	16.8	-1.80
Arron Afflalo	53	52	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	0.08	-9	6	-15	13.5	13.6	-0.09	16.6	16.6	0.01
Al Harrington	53	54	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.42	5	-8	13	14.9	11.8	3.16	17.5	15.4	2.11
Andre Miller	66	65	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.49	2	-5	7	13.5	13.6	-0.06	16.6	16.6	-0.03
Danilo Gallinari	74	75	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.48	-5	2	-7	13.0	15.6	-2.66	16.2	17.9	-1.68
Ty Lawson	63	64	-0.82	0.32	-1.14	-0.44	-13	10	-23	12.9	14.9	-2.00	16.6	16.6	0.00
Nene	68	67	-0.84	0.34	-1.19	-0.52	-11	8	-19	12.8	15.3	-2.50	16.9	16.0	0.85

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andrew Bynum	65	62	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.48	11	-8	19	17.1	15.5	1.54	12.7	15.1	-2.37
Kobe Bryant	67	67	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.46	10	-7	17	16.8	16.1	0.75	13.3	14.1	-0.79
Matt Barnes	40	39	0.75	-0.25	1.00	0.51	8	-5	13	16.7	16.5	0.27	13.4	13.6	-0.19
Derek Fisher	42	44	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.30	10	-7	17	17.2	16.1	1.15	13.4	13.7	-0.34
Pau Gasol	71	72	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.41	3	0	3	16.6	16.6	-0.06	13.8	12.8	1.01
Troy Murphy	12	11	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.06	-5	8	-13	15.7	16.7	-0.96	12.2	13.7	-1.54
Steve Blake	54	51	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.11	-7	10	-17	16.1	17.2	-1.15	13.7	13.4	0.34
Josh McRoberts	42	44	-0.18	0.68	-0.85	-0.15	-1	4	-5	16.5	16.7	-0.25	14.7	12.5	2.24
Jason Kapono	48	46	-0.22	0.72	-0.93	-0.10	-4	7	-11	15.7	17.5	-1.73	13.4	13.7	-0.26
Metta World Peace	39	39	-0.32	0.82	-1.14	-0.03	-10	13	-23	16.7	16.5	0.21	14.1	13.2	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.55,0.61,0.57,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.42,0.48,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.5,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.72,0.56,0.44,0.36,0.42,0.48,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.34,0.27,0.32,0.29,0.43,0.84,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 72, CLE 74	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.51,0.45,0.44,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.46,0.4,0.39,0.48,0.39,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.52,0.44,0.52,0.46,0.34,0.31,0.28,0.32,0.41,0.4,0.22,0.19,0.29,0.55,0.92,1	92.0%
LAC 86, UTA 87	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.63,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.5,0.48,0.46,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.68,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.44,0.4,0.46,0.43,0.52,0.48,0.47,0.59,0.47,0.27,0.31,0.54,0.65,0.74,1	91.9%
CLE 88, DEN 91	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.49,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.56,0.61,0.54,0.51,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.57,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.57,0.43,0.29,0.3,0.36,0.34,0.27,0.19,0.36,0.45,0.84,1	91.8%