NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Boston Celtics	107		Excitement	5.0 [657]		MVP	Ray Allen (BOS): +14.8%
Miami Heat	115		Comeback	1.1 [1011]		LVP	Mario Chalmers (MIA): -9.3%

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ray Allen	0.15	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.21	0.00	0.06	12	93%	0.21	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.02
Keyon Dooling	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.08	0.05	0.03	10	75%	0.16	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.01
Avery Bradley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sasha Pavlovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0.00	4	62%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Chris Wilcox	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jermaine O'Neal	-0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marquis Daniels	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	53%	0.02	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Bass	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	0.04	10	52%	-0.02	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.03
Kevin Garnett	-0.06	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	0.00	0.02	12	50%	-0.00	3	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rajon Rondo	-0.09	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.08,-0.09	-0.07	-0.05	-0.04	15	54%	0.11	7	-0.19	11	64%	-0.03

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.12	0.00	0.01	3	150%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LeBron James	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.10	0.01	0.01	14	70%	0.16	3	-0.06	9	89%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.05	0.01	-0.03	11	69%	0.13	3	-0.04	4	25%	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.06	0.06	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	15	60%	0.10	3	-0.04	10	80%	0.02
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.07,-0.08,-0.02,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.07	0.02	16	53%	0.11	3	-0.07	6	67%	-0.02
Joel Anthony	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juwan Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.03	9	20%	-0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.10	-0.00	-0.00	1	100%	0.02	6	-0.11	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	30.7	3.5	38.8	19.3	28.6	2.7	39.4	163.1
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +16.3%

BOS -2.2%

MIA +12.1%

MIA +18.2%

MIA +5.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	BOS	MIA	NBA	BOS	MIA	NBA
this game	14.6	13.2	15.6	104.9	109.5	102.8
season	15.5	15.5		99.4	105.6
opponent	15.8	16.2		98.8	97.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
BOS	14.6	14.7	14.4	14.8	14.6
MIA	11.6	11.5	15.0	15.2	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Keyon Dooling	50	49	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.36	11	-19	30	14.1	15.1	-1.03	14.4	12.2	2.15
Chris Wilcox	21	22	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.05	0	-8	8	14.8	14.6	0.17	10.6	13.9	-3.32
Avery Bradley	8	9	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	0.03	-3	-5	2	15.1	14.6	0.54	9.8	13.5	-3.76
Sasha Pavlovic	28	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	0.03	-6	-2	-4	15.1	14.4	0.66	12.2	13.6	-1.41
Jermaine O'Neal	41	44	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.02	-5	-3	-2	16.5	13.3	3.19	14.2	12.5	1.74
Brandon Bass	69	71	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.30	1	-9	10	14.0	15.9	-1.85	13.5	12.6	0.98
Marquis Daniels	40	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	0.03	-10	2	-12	15.6	14.0	1.60	12.1	13.9	-1.84
Rajon Rondo	94	96	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-3	-2	14.6	15.1	-0.54	13.5	9.8	3.76
Kevin Garnett	73	73	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	4	-16	14.1	16.0	-1.92	13.1	13.5	-0.40
Ray Allen	86	89	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.23	-11	3	-14	14.3	16.2	-1.92	13.4	11.9	1.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwyane Wade	80	78	0.71	-0.21	0.92	0.06	22	-14	36	12.3	16.2	-3.86	15.1	13.2	1.86
Chris Bosh	82	79	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.15	17	-9	26	12.8	14.8	-2.06	15.0	13.2	1.82
Norris Cole	62	60	0.28	0.22	0.05	0.28	0	8	-8	14.4	11.5	2.97	14.0	15.5	-1.52
Udonis Haslem	68	67	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.38	-5	13	-18	13.5	12.7	0.76	14.1	15.6	-1.44
Mario Chalmers	43	42	0.22	0.28	-0.05	-0.01	8	0	8	11.5	14.4	-2.97	15.5	14.0	1.52
Joel Anthony	46	43	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.06	8	0	8	12.5	13.7	-1.20	15.5	14.0	1.45
Shane Battier	35	36	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.08	1	7	-6	14.0	12.8	1.17	15.2	14.3	0.88
LeBron James	80	76	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.33	-8	16	-24	13.7	11.7	2.02	13.9	16.9	-3.03
James Jones	15	16	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	7	-6	13.7	13.1	0.60	14.2	14.7	-0.45
Juwan Howard	14	13	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	12	-16	16.8	12.7	4.12	12.7	14.9	-2.22

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.57,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.54,0.57,0.64,0.64,0.69,0.71,0.69,0.8,0.81,0.83,0.86,0.77,0.88,0.88,0.89,0.8,0.85,0.81,0.92,0.97,0.93,0.91,0.9,0.86,0.9,0.81,0.9,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.99,0.86,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 81, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.57,0.59,0.6,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.77,0.79,0.8,0.79,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.91,0.84,0.88,0.87,0.9,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.96,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.9%
OKC 124, DEN 127	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.6,0.62,0.58,0.6,0.65,0.62,0.7,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.86,0.87,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.88,0.86,0.82,0.83,0.88,0.88,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.92,0.92,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.94,0.84,1	94.8%
DET 78, MIL 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.62,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.63,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.67,0.65,0.69,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.8,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.89,0.9,0.84,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.97,0.94,0.98,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.9,0.96,0.97,0.95,1	94.8%