NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	102		Excitement	8.9 [125]		MVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): +31.9%
Orlando Magic	99		Comeback	2.7 [538]		LVP	Brandon Bass (ORL): -38.2%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Derrick Rose	0.32	0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.34,0.24,0.31,0.42,0.32	0.25	0.09	0.02	17	89%	0.65	5	-0.33	10	100%	0.10
Taj Gibson	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09	-0.01	0.09	-0.00	6	53%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.04
Keith Bogans	0.04	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.01	3	100%	0.08	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Kyle Korver	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	-0.00	0.00	3	83%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	1	100%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luol Deng	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.05	-0.08	-0.01	11	68%	0.15	2	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	3	67%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0.02,0.06,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.07	0.00	-0.03	6	43%	0.09	3	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
CJ Watson	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.03	-0.05	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	-0.16	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.15,-0.26,-0.13,-0.16	-0.03	-0.08	0.06	7	57%	0.07	4	-0.23	7	86%	0.07

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.21	0.08	0.13	0.00	3	117%	0.21	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.04	0.03	18	67%	0.20	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.11
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.15,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.15,0.15,0,0,0	0.00	0.15	-0.10	0.06	14	80%	0.24	2	-0.23	2	0%	-0.04
Earl Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.16,0.16,-0.06,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.08	-0.02	12	59%	0.05	5	-0.12	5	100%	0.04
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	8	31%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.11	-0.09	0.01	13	28%	-0.20	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.38	-0.38	-0.14	-0.25	-0.01	11	21%	-0.16	2	-0.22	2	50%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	2.8	28.0	16.6	29.4	2.8	46.2	151.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +72.7%

CHI +15.8%

ORL -11.0%

ORL -32.6%

CHI +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ORL	NBA	CHI	ORL	NBA
this game	16.9	15.5	15.5	115.9	110.0	105.7
season	15.7	15.2		106.5	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.9		101.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.9	18.1	16.7	17.0	16.9
ORL	14.8	17.9	15.3	14.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Taj Gibson	55	55	0.70	-0.20	0.90	0.40	10	-7	17	16.8	17.1	-0.31	15.8	15.0	0.83
Derrick Rose	68	70	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.43	6	-3	9	16.7	17.6	-0.91	15.2	16.6	-1.44
Carlos Boozer	64	66	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.36	4	-1	5	16.6	17.7	-1.11	14.6	17.8	-3.16
Ronnie Brewer	35	37	0.33	0.17	0.17	0.33	0	3	-3	16.5	17.1	-0.59	17.3	14.2	3.04
Luol Deng	75	76	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.36	-2	5	-7	16.7	17.8	-1.11	14.5	20.8	-6.29
Keith Bogans	40	41	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.02	8	-5	13	16.8	17.0	-0.23	14.7	16.2	-1.50
Kyle Korver	26	26	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	3	-3	18.0	16.4	1.62	17.1	14.8	2.25
Omer Asik	24	24	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	4	-5	17.7	16.6	1.11	17.8	14.6	3.16
CJ Watson	21	21	-0.08	0.58	-0.67	0.03	-4	7	-11	16.8	16.9	-0.18	15.9	15.3	0.56
Joakim Noah	33	35	-0.20	0.70	-0.90	0.01	-7	10	-17	17.1	16.8	0.31	15.0	15.8	-0.83

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	23	23	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	-0.01	-1	-2	1	17.9	14.7	3.21	17.8	16.6	1.26
Earl Clark	12	12	-0.06	-0.44	0.37	-0.00	-2	-1	-1	17.6	15.2	2.43	17.3	16.8	0.50
Jason Richardson	72	69	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.32	4	-7	11	14.4	19.9	-5.58	16.9	17.1	-0.20
Malik Allen	28	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.02	-7	4	-11	17.4	14.6	2.83	16.7	17.0	-0.26
Brandon Bass	73	70	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.39	5	-8	13	15.1	16.9	-1.80	17.2	15.7	1.48
Gilbert Arenas	41	41	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	0.04	-13	10	-23	17.4	13.9	3.56	17.1	16.7	0.42
Hedo Turkoglu	67	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.54	3	-6	9	15.5	15.4	0.06	16.8	17.2	-0.38
Jameer Nelson	67	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.40	-2	-1	-1	14.7	17.9	-3.21	16.6	17.8	-1.26
Ryan Anderson	67	65	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.40	-2	-1	-1	14.7	17.9	-3.21	16.6	17.8	-1.26

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.36,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.33,0.26,0.27,0.31,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.44,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.52,0.47,0.42,0.47,0.36,0.47,0.33,0.31,0.54,0.55,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 96, ATL 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.4,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.38,0.33,0.3,0.34,0.42,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.34,0.37,0.44,0.56,0.46,0.38,0.43,0.38,0.32,0.36,0.53,0.54,0.45,0.72,0.45,0.42,0	91.5%
PHI 85, MIN 77	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.42,0.43,0.49,0.45,0.37,0.38,0.3,0.3,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.3,0.25,0.31,0.39,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.56,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.36,0.2,0.27,0.2,0.46,0.66,0.04,0	91.5%
NOP 101, CHA 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.52,0.49,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.41,0.48,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.43,0.47,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.25,0.33,0.29,0.45,0.34,0.26,0	91.5%