NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	114		Excitement	11.0 [25]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +68.4%
Oklahoma City Thunder	115		Comeback	3.6 [537]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -26.7%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
David Lee	0.27	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.16,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.08	0.19	-0.00	17	65%	0.37	4	-0.10	3	67%	-0.04
Reggie Williams	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.00	0.03	4	100%	0.08	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Lou Amundson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Stephen Curry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.07,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.3,0.17,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.15,0.19,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.02,0.02	0.14	-0.08	0.03	23	70%	0.23	6	-0.21	4	100%	0.04
Monta Ellis	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.22,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.25,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.36,0	-0.13	0.13	-0.00	30	33%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Ekpe Udoh	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	0.01	-0.09	0.00	11	46%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Al Thornton	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	5	20%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dorell Wright	-0.15	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15	-0.11	-0.06	-0.02	13	25%	-0.13	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.28,0.26,0.26,0.35,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.28,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.56,0.68	0.68	0.23	0.44	-0.02	23	67%	0.74	2	-0.06	12	83%	0.13
Nazr Mohammed	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.02	-0.01	5	67%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	5	58%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
James Harden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.02,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.03	-0.00	10	61%	0.15	4	-0.12	3	100%	0.02
Eric Maynor	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.02	-0.00	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Daequan Cook	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.00	8	47%	0.01	1	-0.06	3	100%	0.02
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.07	-0.12	0.02	16	58%	-0.04	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.07	-0.00	3	0%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.04
Russell Westbrook	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.23,-0.31,-0.31,-0.27	-0.27	-0.16	-0.10	0.00	15	39%	-0.13	6	-0.14	8	87%	-0.07

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.9	1.8	32.1	15.5	25.9	1.8	34.8	1.5	16.3	153.7
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	1.9	16.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW -5.1%

OKC +33.3%

OKC +25.0%

GSW -13.4%

OKC +10.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	OKC	NBA	GSW	OKC	NBA
this game	14.0	14.5	15.5	101.8	103.6	105.7
season	14.8	15.0		106.6	108.8
opponent	15.6	15.2		105.4	109.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
GSW	14.3	14.2	12.9	13.9	16.3	14.0
OKC	14.0	15.2	14.3	13.3	19.1	14.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ekpe Udoh	81	79	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.25	9	-10	19	13.9	14.3	-0.34	15.6	11.9	3.62
David Lee	100	99	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.35	8	-9	17	14.1	13.2	0.85	14.8	12.0	2.82
Dorell Wright	100	99	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.51	10	-11	21	13.9	14.7	-0.74	14.8	12.0	2.82
Stephen Curry	101	99	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	-0.54	6	-7	13	14.2	12.2	2.03	14.9	11.2	3.66
Lou Amundson	26	25	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.01	-13	12	-25	14.1	14.0	0.14	11.6	15.4	-3.81
Monta Ellis	99	98	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.51	3	-4	7	13.8	15.3	-1.47	14.8	12.7	2.06
Al Thornton	22	23	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.08	-14	13	-27	15.6	13.6	1.97	12.7	15.0	-2.24
Reggie Williams	31	33	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.10	-14	13	-27	12.9	14.4	-1.53	11.8	15.7	-3.92

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
James Harden	68	69	0.48	0.01	0.47	0.43	2	-1	3	13.7	15.7	-1.97	13.5	14.8	-1.27
Kevin Durant	100	102	0.41	0.09	0.31	0.50	-3	4	-7	14.7	12.8	1.88	14.1	12.9	1.22
Kendrick Perkins	59	60	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.60	-7	8	-15	16.2	12.6	3.53	15.0	12.8	2.21
Nazr Mohammed	49	49	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.12	9	-8	17	13.2	15.5	-2.27	13.4	14.5	-1.14
Eric Maynor	38	38	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.11	8	-7	15	12.7	15.5	-2.82	13.1	14.5	-1.41
Serge Ibaka	67	70	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.30	-5	6	-11	15.8	12.6	3.19	14.7	12.9	1.73
Russell Westbrook	73	74	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.36	-7	8	-15	15.5	12.7	2.82	14.5	13.1	1.41
Thabo Sefolosha	53	52	0.11	0.39	-0.27	0.05	2	-1	3	14.1	14.9	-0.73	13.4	14.6	-1.20
Daequan Cook	48	46	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.11	6	-5	11	13.1	15.6	-2.45	13.6	14.3	-0.72

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.49,0.44,0.47,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.61,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.88,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.6,0.66,0.57,0.63,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.96,0.94,0.99,0.93,0.46,0.76,0.55,0.22,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
WAS 120, LAL 126	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.47,0.39,0.4,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.55,0.54,0.6,0.65,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.66,0.58,0.56,0.7,0.8,0.86,0.91,0.8,0.75,0.76,0.74,0.77,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.71,0.58,0.73,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.81,0.78,0.44,0.9,0.46,0.45,0.55,0.14,0.26,1	88.4%
CHH 86, MIA 89	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.45,0.39,0.43,0.45,0.45,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.63,0.73,0.78,0.72,0.83,0.86,0.84,0.86,0.8,0.78,0.73,0.81,0.82,0.83,0.84,0.82,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.66,0.66,0.76,0.77,0.83,0.91,0.91,0.85,0.85,0.69,0.58,0.46,0.39,0.37,0.32,0.27,1	87.2%
MEM 93, SAS 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.73,0.74,0.72,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.88,0.86,0.84,0.89,0.86,0.8,0.83,0.84,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.66,0.63,0.6,0.5,0.48,0.57,0.49,0.58,0.69,0.92,0.9,0.87,0.89,0.67,0.85,0.46,0.39,0.45,0.43,0.42,1	87.1%