NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	100		Excitement	6.2 [584]		MVP	Dwyane Wade (MIA): +15.2%
Detroit Pistons	94		Comeback	7.4 [392]		LVP	Erick Dampier (MIA): -8.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwyane Wade	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.13	0.05	0.02	13	63%	0.15	0	0.00	12	83%	0.01
Chris Bosh	0.15	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15	0.10	0.06	0.01	11	68%	0.20	2	-0.05	12	92%	0.07
James Jones	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.06	0.08	0.00	5	60%	0.14	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	5	50%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07	0.06	0.01	-0.00	8	72%	0.12	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
LeBron James	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,-0.01,-0.04,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	16	53%	0.09	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.01
Eddie House	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	3	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jamaal Magloire	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Anthony	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	0.01	2	50%	-0.01	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.1,0.17,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.16,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.13	0.02	0.05	16	67%	0.13	1	-0.03	8	87%	0.04
Chris Wilcox	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.06	0.00	0.01	6	83%	0.09	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.02	0.00	3	71%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	5	58%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tracy McGrady	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	-0.02	-0.06	6	50%	0.08	3	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Greg Monroe	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	10	54%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.01
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Austin Daye	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	8	45%	0.02	2	-0.08	4	75%	-0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.08	0.00	12	48%	-0.02	1	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.7	27.8	16.8	28.0	1.8	38.3	140.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +22.1%

MIA +21.8%

DET -3.2%

MIA +4.7%

MIA +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	DET	NBA	MIA	DET	NBA
this game	16.5	16.8	15.5	116.3	108.0	105.7
season	16.0	16.7		109.0	106.4
opponent	15.2	15.6		110.1	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	15.5	17.9	17.5	15.1	16.5
DET	17.2	17.3	16.0	16.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	70	70	0.75	-0.25	1.01	0.37	13	-7	20	16.0	18.2	-2.21	17.7	13.2	4.48
James Jones	36	37	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.25	17	-11	28	15.2	17.3	-2.12	16.3	17.2	-0.90
Mike Miller	49	50	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.44	8	-2	10	16.7	16.1	0.56	15.3	18.9	-3.57
LeBron James	75	75	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.34	6	0	6	16.5	16.5	-0.00	16.7	17.9	-1.25
Eddie House	26	25	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.10	10	-4	14	19.2	15.2	3.98	16.2	17.1	-0.95
Dwyane Wade	70	72	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.17	-1	7	-8	15.6	20.1	-4.43	17.4	14.0	3.43
Jamaal Magloire	18	19	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	-0.10	1	5	-4	18.1	16.0	2.03	17.0	16.8	0.21
Joel Anthony	13	14	-0.11	0.61	-0.73	0.06	-6	12	-18	16.5	16.4	0.10	14.3	17.3	-3.04
Erick Dampier	29	28	-0.26	0.76	-1.02	-0.08	-6	12	-18	16.1	16.6	-0.58	17.8	16.4	1.45
Mike Bibby	44	45	-0.26	0.76	-1.03	0.09	-12	18	-30	17.1	15.8	1.31	17.4	16.2	1.21

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Wilcox	31	32	0.18	-0.68	0.87	0.07	4	-10	14	17.9	16.2	1.70	16.1	16.7	-0.62
Richard Hamilton	67	66	0.14	-0.64	0.77	-0.13	9	-15	24	16.6	17.6	-1.05	16.0	18.0	-2.02
Greg Monroe	66	64	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.14	9	-15	24	16.4	18.2	-1.84	15.8	18.3	-2.51
Tracy McGrady	64	64	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.19	2	-8	10	16.9	16.6	0.31	15.8	18.5	-2.69
Tayshaun Prince	71	71	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.26	3	-9	12	16.5	18.3	-1.81	16.0	18.4	-2.36
Charlie Villanueva	16	15	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.06	-9	3	-12	18.3	16.5	1.81	18.4	16.0	2.36
Austin Daye	26	25	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.13	-9	3	-12	16.5	17.0	-0.54	17.8	15.9	1.95
Jason Maxiell	21	22	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	9	-24	18.2	16.4	1.84	18.3	15.8	2.51
Ben Gordon	20	20	-0.64	0.14	-0.77	-0.20	-15	9	-24	17.6	16.6	1.05	18.0	16.0	2.02
Rodney Stuckey	53	51	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	3	-12	16.3	17.7	-1.42	16.9	15.8	1.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.04,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 113, MIN 108	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.09,0.05,0	93.4%
DET 87, BOS 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.08,0	92.5%
PHX 88, LAC 83	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.55,0.63,0.6,0.64,0.71,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.69,0.63,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.42,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.04,0.03,0.01,0,0	92.3%