NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	113		Excitement	7.7 [277]		MVP	Dean Garrett (MIN): +23.5%
Minnesota Timberwolves	108		Comeback	4.9 [225]		LVP	Tom Gugliotta (MIN): -17.6%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Willie Anderson	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.11,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.07	0.10	-0.00	7	71%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0.17	0,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.17	0.15	0.05	0.03	11	85%	0.19	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Jamal Mashburn	0.13	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.13	-0.02	0.14	-0.00	13	50%	0.15	1	-0.02	6	67%	-0.02
Alonzo Mourning	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	7	70%	0.10	2	-0.06	16	56%	-0.07
Keith Askins	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	0.00	2	50%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Hardaway	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.02,-0.01,0.02	-0.03	0.06	0.00	17	52%	0.12	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.03
Mark Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	1	75%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
John Crotty	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.04	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Ike Austin	-0.05	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.01	-0.04	-0.01	10	55%	0.02	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dean Garrett	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.16,0.16,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.11	0.13	0.01	7	87%	0.23	0	0.00	2	100%	0.08
Stephon Marbury	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.15	0.15	0.11	0.04	-0.01	17	69%	0.14	2	0.01	5	80%	0.00
Stojko Vrankovic	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cherokee Parks	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Doug West	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Terry Porter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.05	0.02	3	70%	-0.02	1	-0.05	4	100%	-0.00
Sam Mitchell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	39%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	83%	0.00
James Robinson	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.04	-0.07	0.00	11	42%	-0.09	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.03
Kevin Garnett	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.14	-0.02	-0.02	16	41%	-0.01	4	-0.14	5	60%	-0.02
Tom Gugliotta	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.13,-0.19,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.05	-0.12	0.01	17	58%	-0.02	5	-0.15	9	78%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	0.1	32.8	15.6	26.4	2.4	36.4	137.9
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +77.8%

MIN -1.9%

MIN -31.7%

MIA +5.4%

MIA +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	MIN	NBA	MIA	MIN	NBA
this game	14.6	15.7	15.6	118.9	113.7	104.4
season	15.8	15.5		103.1	103.3
opponent	15.5	16.3		105.3	98.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	13.3	15.2	13.7	14.6
MIN	13.2	14.9	16.7	18.5	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Willie Anderson	35	35	0.80	-0.30	1.09	0.18	21	-16	37	15.1	14.3	0.85	17.8	14.5	3.22
Alonzo Mourning	67	65	0.79	-0.29	1.07	0.49	10	-5	15	13.8	16.5	-2.72	15.8	15.6	0.20
Jamal Mashburn	70	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.48	7	-2	9	14.8	13.9	0.89	15.2	17.1	-1.88
John Crotty	19	21	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.20	9	-4	13	14.4	14.6	-0.20	20.4	14.4	5.96
Voshon Lenard	87	87	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	1	3	14.5	15.2	-0.73	15.3	20.0	-4.66
Tim Hardaway	82	81	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.19	-6	11	-17	14.6	14.5	0.14	14.9	20.6	-5.67
Mark Strickland	11	10	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.03	0	5	-5	12.7	14.8	-2.09	12.1	16.2	-4.06
Keith Askins	53	53	-0.17	0.67	-0.84	0.21	-13	18	-31	14.9	14.2	0.70	14.9	16.8	-1.88
Ike Austin	51	53	-0.44	0.94	-1.38	-0.24	-7	12	-19	15.2	13.9	1.25	16.6	14.7	1.88

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dean Garrett	60	59	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.19	3	-8	11	15.2	16.7	-1.55	16.1	12.1	4.06
Kevin Garnett	87	86	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.25	5	-10	15	15.5	18.0	-2.47	14.9	11.1	3.83
Stephon Marbury	77	77	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.23	4	-9	13	15.2	17.8	-2.59	15.0	12.7	2.29
Stojko Vrankovic	6	5	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	0.00	-4	-1	-3	22.0	15.3	6.69	9.0	14.9	-5.89
Cherokee Parks	2	1	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	-2	-1	9.0	15.9	-6.88	20.0	14.5	5.48
Tom Gugliotta	78	79	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	-0.26	4	-9	13	15.3	17.9	-2.68	14.5	15.2	-0.73
James Robinson	70	73	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.37	-1	-4	3	15.4	16.7	-1.28	14.4	15.2	-0.78
Doug West	23	23	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.09	-11	6	-17	15.7	15.7	-0.05	11.7	15.5	-3.75
Terry Porter	24	23	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.19	-10	5	-15	19.7	14.4	5.26	15.0	14.4	0.61
Sam Mitchell	48	49	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.15	-12	7	-19	16.4	15.0	1.42	13.4	15.8	-2.33

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.5,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.61,0.63,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.7,0.69,0.64,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.69,0.67,0.54,0.6,0.63,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.81,0.66,0.57,0.43,0.37,0.3,0.2,0.33,0.25,0.28,0.09,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 100, DET 94	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.43,0.46,0.51,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.57,0.58,0.56,0.65,0.55,0.62,0.68,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.61,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.51,0.59,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.55,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.82,0.81,0.7,0.57,0.43,0.47,0.26,0.15,0.18,0.11,0.07,0.06,0.04,0	93.4%
DET 87, BOS 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.64,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.65,0.67,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.61,0.64,0.73,0.7,0.71,0.72,0.69,0.7,0.67,0.56,0.55,0.59,0.56,0.63,0.56,0.66,0.66,0.59,0.43,0.46,0.41,0.19,0.22,0.19,0.07,0.03,0.08,0	92.4%
LAC 100, OKC 98	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.57,0.55,0.6,0.6,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.71,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.75,0.7,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.67,0.67,0.58,0.68,0.62,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.66,0.57,0.62,0.62,0.42,0.41,0.54,0.33,0.24,0.21,0.06,0.08,0	91.5%