NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	114		Excitement	1.7 [1298]		MVP	Luol Deng (CHI): +18.4%
Atlanta Hawks	81		Comeback	1.1 [1003]		LVP	Kirk Hinrich (ATL): -7.4%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luol Deng	0.18	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.22	0.02	0.06	15	75%	0.18	0	0.00	6	100%	0.01
Derrick Rose	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.20	0.00	0.13	20	70%	0.07	1	-0.00	3	67%	-0.01
CJ Watson	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	-0.08	0.00	-0.13	9	40%	0.05	3	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.06	0.00	0.02	2	150%	0.04	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	6	69%	0.04	2	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.04	0.00	0.02	2	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Omer Asik	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	70%	0.02	1	0.00	8	62%	0.00
Kyle Korver	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	0.00	0.04	6	64%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Carlos Boozer	0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.06	8	33%	0.01	1	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Joakim Noah	0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	67%	0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Brewer	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Horford	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	0.00	0.03	7	87%	0.07	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh Smith	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.00	-0.01	12	50%	0.04	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	42%	0.02	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.02
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	11	54%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Hilton Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	3	50%	0.00	2	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.07	0.00	-0.07	2	0%	-0.00	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.17	0.00	0.17	9	91%	-0.00	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.00	-0.05	4	25%	-0.02	2	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0.02	8	45%	-0.02	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.09	-0.00	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	3.5	28.2	18.8	30.0	2.0	32.2	141.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI +41.3%

ATL -3.3%

CHI +5.4%

CHI +6.4%

CHI +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	ATL	NBA	CHI	ATL	NBA
this game	17.0	16.1	15.5	129.5	94.2	105.7
season	15.7	16.5		106.5	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.9		105.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	17.5	15.6	17.7	17.1	17.0
ATL	16.8	18.7	16.5	12.9	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luol Deng	61	59	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.69	39	-6	45	16.7	17.6	-0.89	17.0	14.1	2.93
Taj Gibson	40	41	0.30	0.20	0.09	-0.17	16	17	-1	16.1	17.8	-1.67	15.8	16.4	-0.58
Derrick Rose	52	50	0.27	0.23	0.04	-0.49	26	7	19	17.3	16.6	0.68	16.4	15.6	0.81
Ronnie Brewer	35	33	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	28	-23	16.4	17.4	-1.02	15.0	16.8	-1.75
CJ Watson	36	36	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.02	7	26	-19	16.6	17.3	-0.68	15.6	16.4	-0.81
Carlos Boozer	40	38	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.47	23	10	13	17.5	16.6	0.85	17.5	15.0	2.49
Kurt Thomas	20	18	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.02	7	26	-19	16.9	17.0	-0.14	13.6	16.7	-3.12
Kyle Korver	31	33	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.18	12	21	-9	16.3	17.4	-1.11	16.0	16.1	-0.13
Omer Asik	33	32	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.11	2	31	-29	16.8	17.1	-0.26	15.0	16.7	-1.67
Keith Bogans	41	40	0.15	0.35	-0.21	-0.32	16	17	-1	18.0	16.1	1.94	16.7	15.5	1.16
Joakim Noah	43	43	0.14	0.36	-0.22	-0.39	18	15	3	17.6	16.4	1.16	17.0	15.2	1.74
Rasual Butler	8	7	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.18	-6	39	-45	19.2	16.8	2.46	10.3	16.6	-6.31

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Powell	16	16	0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.35	12	-45	57	12.4	16.9	-4.48	17.2	17.0	0.29
Hilton Armstrong	26	25	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.12	4	-37	41	12.9	17.5	-4.58	17.4	16.9	0.49
Jeff Teague	35	37	-0.01	-0.49	0.49	0.05	-2	-31	29	13.7	17.7	-4.04	17.5	16.6	0.87
Jason Collins	6	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	0.01	-4	-29	25	22.2	15.6	6.54	16.5	17.0	-0.55
Damien Wilkins	31	31	-0.15	-0.35	0.21	-0.03	-4	-29	25	14.0	17.3	-3.25	16.8	17.1	-0.27
Zaza Pachulia	29	29	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.53	-26	-7	-19	15.0	16.6	-1.63	15.9	17.6	-1.66
Marvin Williams	40	39	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	0.30	-20	-13	-7	18.2	14.3	3.91	17.0	17.0	-0.02
Jamal Crawford	49	50	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	-21	9	14.9	17.7	-2.85	16.5	17.7	-1.23
Josh Smith	45	49	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.38	-24	-9	-15	18.1	13.8	4.30	17.5	16.4	1.03
Al Horford	50	51	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.49	-28	-5	-23	17.0	14.9	2.10	17.0	17.0	0.02
Kirk Hinrich	48	49	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	0.50	-29	-4	-25	17.3	14.5	2.83	17.3	16.6	0.67
Joe Johnson	55	58	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	0.55	-32	-1	-31	17.3	14.0	3.25	17.0	17.0	-0.03

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.42,0.43,0.47,0.45,0.47,0.4,0.36,0.3,0.26,0.22,0.18,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.07,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 118, WAS 98	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.46,0.46,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.4,0.32,0.28,0.26,0.27,0.21,0.22,0.16,0.08,0.09,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
ATL 109, DAL 73	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.47,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.26,0.2,0.23,0.17,0.12,0.09,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.2%
CLE 116, DET 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.5,0.48,0.47,0.46,0.39,0.4,0.36,0.31,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.16,0.09,0.12,0.11,0.12,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	97.1%