NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Excitement	6.2 [596]		MVP	Kevin Durant (OKC): +23.8%
Atlanta Hawks	104		Comeback	1.7 [431]		LVP	Al Horford (ATL): -6.8%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.24	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.17	0.07	0.01	18	71%	0.28	2	-0.04	5	100%	0.02
James Harden	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.04	0.05	-0.01	16	50%	0.09	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.11	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Russell Westbrook	0.08	0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08	0.03	0.05	-0.00	23	54%	0.17	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.00
Cole Aldrich	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.00	-0.01	6	57%	0.05	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Eric Maynor	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	0.01	0.01	3	62%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Daequan Cook	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	0.01	0.02	4	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Nazr Mohammed	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	6	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.03	0.01	13	72%	0.13	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.01
Jeff Teague	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.01	0.00	4	100%	0.10	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.01	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	42%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0,0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	-0.03	0.04	-0.04	0.03	13	56%	0.07	3	-0.10	8	87%	0.01
Joe Johnson	0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	24	48%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Josh Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Al Horford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.04	0.02	10	58%	0.03	3	-0.10	6	83%	-0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.7	2.4	23.6	16.6	19.2	2.5	37.3	131.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +36.4%

OKC +7.3%

ATL -11.9%

OKC +19.3%

ATL -1.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	ATL	NBA	OKC	ATL	NBA
this game	15.7	15.7	15.5	120.7	113.0	105.7
season	15.0	16.5		108.8	104.0
opponent	15.5	15.6		105.1	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	16.4	14.8	16.2	15.3	15.7
ATL	15.7	17.2	18.0	12.4	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Russell Westbrook	68	68	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.23	11	-4	15	14.6	18.5	-3.85	16.7	12.5	4.21
Kevin Durant	74	76	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.25	6	1	5	15.5	16.4	-0.98	16.0	14.2	1.77
Serge Ibaka	48	49	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	-4	15	15.6	15.7	-0.06	18.4	12.6	5.81
James Harden	65	64	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.22	5	2	3	15.0	17.3	-2.33	15.0	17.2	-2.25
Nick Collison	54	53	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.28	2	5	-3	15.9	15.3	0.62	13.7	18.3	-4.52
Thabo Sefolosha	61	59	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.15	4	3	1	15.4	16.2	-0.87	16.2	14.7	1.49
Nazr Mohammed	34	35	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.16	-1	8	-9	17.8	14.4	3.35	16.6	15.1	1.58
Daequan Cook	29	28	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.10	-1	8	-9	15.7	15.7	0.00	12.9	16.9	-3.97
Cole Aldrich	2	3	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.00	0	7	-7	18.5	15.6	2.91	18.7	15.6	3.12
Eric Maynor	25	25	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.00	-2	9	-11	17.8	14.8	3.00	12.3	16.9	-4.58

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Damien Wilkins	21	21	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-10	13	13.1	16.4	-3.31	18.2	14.9	3.29
Jeff Teague	29	28	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.02	1	-8	9	14.1	16.4	-2.31	16.6	15.2	1.42
Etan Thomas	14	14	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.11	1	-8	9	13.7	16.0	-2.29	16.6	15.5	1.17
Josh Powell	8	8	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.10	-8	1	-9	18.2	15.4	2.85	15.2	15.7	-0.44
Jason Collins	36	36	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.07	-3	-4	1	18.3	14.0	4.31	16.0	15.4	0.62
Zaza Pachulia	11	10	-0.18	-0.32	0.15	0.06	-8	1	-9	15.9	15.6	0.29	16.4	15.6	0.84
Al Horford	69	70	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.40	5	-12	17	14.8	18.2	-3.36	16.0	14.7	1.28
Joe Johnson	79	79	-0.38	-0.12	-0.26	-0.35	-1	-6	5	15.6	15.7	-0.05	15.5	16.6	-1.12
Kirk Hinrich	61	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.23	-6	-1	-5	16.4	14.2	2.15	15.0	16.8	-1.79
Jamal Crawford	66	67	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.20	-8	1	-9	15.0	17.4	-2.47	15.0	17.4	-2.45
Marvin Williams	66	66	-0.49	-0.01	-0.49	-0.17	-11	4	-15	16.7	13.0	3.70	15.0	17.2	-2.15

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.6,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.53,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.4,0.45,0.53,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.39,0.36,0.37,0.34,0.28,0.33,0.3,0.33,0.42,0.35,0.25,0.21,0.13,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.15,0.21,0.07,0.03,0.14,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.06,0.05,0
Game		Similarity Score
MIN 105, LAL 96	0.5,0.51,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.56,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.47,0.45,0.4,0.4,0.38,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.31,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.38,0.38,0.28,0.26,0.2,0.13,0.06,0.1,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.02,0,0,0,0	95.0%
NYK 108, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.57,0.58,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.57,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.37,0.36,0.38,0.38,0.49,0.44,0.37,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.34,0.26,0.18,0.26,0.27,0.38,0.26,0.21,0.2,0.13,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.25,0.2,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.04,0	94.5%
DAL 80, DEN 75	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.32,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.39,0.41,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.3,0.37,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.16,0.15,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.14,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.02,0,0	93.8%